NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	90		Excitement	5.6 [686]		MVP	Mike Miller (MEM): +8.4%
Memphis Grizzlies	103		Comeback	3.0 [670]		LVP	Shareef Abdur-Rahim (ATL): -17.9%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Jackson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.04	-0.01	15	47%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dion Glover	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	6	71%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Travis Hansen	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.04	8	62%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	6	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lee Nailon	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	7	44%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Terry	-0.10	0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.02	0.03	16	50%	-0.03	3	-0.07	6	100%	0.03
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.04	-0.04	14	33%	-0.13	3	-0.05	8	75%	0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.08	0.03	16	59%	0.13	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.02
Pau Gasol	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	-0.00	-0.06	12	59%	0.05	3	-0.01	5	60%	-0.02
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.05	-0.00	10	43%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.01	4	62%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bonzi Wells	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	9	55%	0.05	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	0.02	4	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Earl Watson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	16	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	8	87%	0.01
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	7	40%	-0.08	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.00
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	10	23%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	1.8	28.4	15.6	22.8	1.7	33.2	130.4
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +20.8%

ATL -1.0%

MEM +21.2%

MEM +7.4%

MEM +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MEM	NBA	ATL	MEM	NBA
this game	15.8	15.4	15.7	96.8	112.0	100.5
season	15.3	15.3		98.2	102.3
opponent	15.7	15.5		100.5	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.4	15.0	18.9	15.2	15.8
MEM	15.7	16.3	14.7	14.8	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lee Nailon	19	17	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.10	2	-15	17	18.9	15.0	3.94	14.8	15.5	-0.67
Stephen Jackson	58	58	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.14	1	-14	15	14.9	17.1	-2.17	15.3	15.6	-0.30
Travis Hansen	27	27	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.05	-4	-9	5	16.0	15.7	0.39	13.7	16.1	-2.36
Dion Glover	29	26	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.06	-5	-8	3	16.6	15.4	1.15	15.8	15.2	0.66
Jacque Vaughn	44	42	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.07	-5	-8	3	15.5	16.0	-0.50	14.7	15.9	-1.25
Nazr Mohammed	24	21	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.10	-5	-8	3	17.1	15.3	1.78	15.0	15.5	-0.42
Theo Ratliff	67	68	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.08	-6	-7	1	15.4	16.6	-1.18	15.8	14.2	1.51
Jason Terry	67	68	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.03	-11	-2	-9	15.1	17.5	-2.41	15.3	15.5	-0.12
Boris Diaw	58	59	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.03	-16	3	-19	16.6	14.5	2.09	16.0	14.3	1.66
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	72	74	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	0.01	-16	3	-19	15.2	17.7	-2.52	15.7	14.1	1.63

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bo Outlaw	30	33	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.04	12	1	11	15.0	15.6	-0.60	17.1	15.0	2.01
Earl Watson	65	67	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.02	12	1	11	14.9	16.5	-1.57	15.9	15.4	0.47
Mike Miller	69	69	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.12	8	5	3	14.9	16.8	-1.94	15.3	17.2	-1.95
Stromile Swift	31	33	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.16	5	8	-3	16.9	14.6	2.26	17.5	14.8	2.62
Bonzi Wells	50	50	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.10	6	7	-1	16.6	13.9	2.78	16.3	15.2	1.12
Shane Battier	45	47	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.12	5	8	-3	16.9	13.9	2.93	16.8	14.7	2.16
James Posey	47	46	0.23	0.27	-0.03	-0.00	8	5	3	13.9	16.9	-2.93	14.7	16.8	-2.16
Lorenzen Wright	58	57	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.02	6	7	-1	14.9	16.1	-1.23	15.2	16.6	-1.43
Pau Gasol	65	63	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.02	3	10	-7	15.2	15.7	-0.42	14.7	18.0	-3.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.3,0.37,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.25,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.52,0.56,0.72,0.78,0.81,0.78,0.89,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 94, BOS 107	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.5,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.38,0.31,0.39,0.33,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.25,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.3,0.32,0.26,0.28,0.36,0.39,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.56,0.71,0.64,0.78,0.9,0.93,0.87,0.88,0.96,0.94,0.93,0.96,1,1,1,1	94.4%
ORL 84, LAL 97	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.37,0.33,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.38,0.35,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.37,0.43,0.43,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.75,0.7,0.82,0.82,0.91,0.95,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.4%
CHA 114, MIL 131	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.5,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.28,0.22,0.23,0.25,0.2,0.26,0.25,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.39,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.59,0.6,0.68,0.78,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.92,0.94,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.3%