NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	79		Excitement	5.9 [611]		MVP	Zach Randolph (POR): +10.2%
Memphis Grizzlies	93		Comeback	4.8 [549]		LVP	Jeff McInnis (POR): -23.8%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zach Randolph	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.02	0.00	21	63%	0.17	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Ruben Patterson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	6	71%	0.10	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Vladimir Stepania	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Travis Outlaw	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ruben Boumtje-Boumtje	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Qyntel Woods	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Carroll	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	12	52%	0.01	3	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Dale Davis	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Person	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damon Stoudamire	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.03	0.03	11	50%	-0.03	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jeff McInnis	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.17	-0.08	-0.01	12	33%	-0.07	6	-0.17	0	0%	0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bonzi Wells	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.02	18	44%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	-0.03	0.01	14	57%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	7	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	13	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.05
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	12	40%	0.01	3	-0.08	1	0%	-0.01
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	3	33%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.12	0.01	-0.02	20	38%	-0.04	2	-0.06	5	100%	0.05
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.12	-0.04	0.00	7	14%	-0.10	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	391.6	2.5	28.3	15.7	25.3	3.3	28.4	495.1
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR -28.4%

MEM +13.1%

MEM +42.5%

MEM +13.6%

MEM +9.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	MEM	NBA	POR	MEM	NBA
this game	16.3	18.0	15.7	94.0	110.7	100.5
season	17.1	15.3		101.5	102.3
opponent	15.7	15.7		100.5	103.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	17.2	12.9	17.7	18.8	16.3
MEM	17.9	15.4	15.7	24.7	18.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Travis Outlaw	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-14	14	13.5	16.4	-2.89	22.5	17.9	4.65
Ruben Boumtje-Boumtje	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-14	14	13.5	16.4	-2.89	22.5	17.9	4.65
Qyntel Woods	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-14	14	13.5	16.4	-2.89	22.5	17.9	4.65
Matt Carroll	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-14	14	13.5	16.4	-2.89	22.5	17.9	4.65
Vladimir Stepania	19	20	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.02	-1	-13	12	17.4	16.0	1.35	15.6	18.7	-3.04
Wesley Person	23	22	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.21	0	-14	14	14.0	17.2	-3.26	18.9	17.6	1.28
Jeff McInnis	64	65	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.05	-12	-2	-10	16.7	15.0	1.67	17.6	19.3	-1.75
Ruben Patterson	38	37	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.08	-8	-6	-2	15.8	16.8	-1.02	16.8	18.9	-2.16
Zach Randolph	61	62	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.07	-14	0	-14	16.2	16.6	-0.34	17.8	18.4	-0.54
Rasheed Wallace	71	71	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.16	-8	-6	-2	16.6	14.7	1.93	18.3	16.0	2.32
Dale Davis	58	58	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.11	-11	-3	-8	16.4	16.0	0.41	18.9	15.8	3.12
Damon Stoudamire	78	77	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.04	-16	2	-18	16.7	11.3	5.37	17.8	19.9	-2.06

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stromile Swift	47	46	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.08	16	-2	18	19.8	15.7	4.09	16.6	16.0	0.64
Earl Watson	63	63	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.09	12	2	10	18.4	16.8	1.60	16.7	15.0	1.70
Bonzi Wells	52	51	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.10	11	3	8	18.7	16.8	1.81	15.6	17.5	-1.92
Bo Outlaw	31	31	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.23	6	8	-2	18.3	17.8	0.47	15.0	17.1	-2.09
James Posey	50	49	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.27	4	10	-6	17.9	18.1	-0.16	16.7	15.7	0.99
Mike Miller	53	54	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.01	5	9	-4	16.8	19.9	-3.12	16.5	15.9	0.60
Shane Battier	34	35	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.18	10	4	6	18.1	17.9	0.16	15.7	16.7	-0.99
Pau Gasol	53	53	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.14	8	6	2	17.8	18.3	-0.47	17.1	15.0	2.09
Lorenzen Wright	37	38	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.01	-2	16	-18	15.7	19.8	-4.09	16.0	16.6	-0.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.41,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.26,0.18,0.23,0.21,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.24,0.26,0.3,0.21,0.3,0.32,0.42,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.88,0.93,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 94, OKC 105	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.41,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.3,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.23,0.29,0.24,0.28,0.23,0.22,0.3,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.54,0.62,0.71,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.83,0.94,0.97,0.96,1,1	92.9%
HOU 69, NOH 90	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.28,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.25,0.24,0.31,0.25,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.5,0.66,0.75,0.79,0.77,0.9,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	92.7%
CLE 95, SAS 99	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.36,0.31,0.24,0.29,0.26,0.24,0.3,0.3,0.31,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.2,0.33,0.35,0.26,0.36,0.48,0.45,0.58,0.59,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.66,0.83,0.84,0.9,0.94,0.9,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.98,1	92.4%