NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	97		Excitement	8.3 [185]		MVP	Darrell Armstrong (NOH): +38.0%
Chicago Bulls	91		Comeback	3.3 [224]		LVP	Kirk Hinrich (CHI): -24.4%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darrell Armstrong	0.38	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.23,0.17,0.33,0.38,0.38	0.12	0.25	-0.00	13	77%	0.45	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Baron Davis	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.26,-0.17,0.06,0.05	-0.11	0.12	-0.05	19	41%	0.09	2	-0.04	8	37%	-0.06
Steven Smith	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.05	-0.00	8	48%	0.07	1	-0.05	5	60%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	9	55%	0.03	1	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
David West	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	4	25%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Lynch	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	4	37%	-0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	7	40%	-0.06	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.02
David Wesley	-0.20	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.04	-0.14	0.02	12	62%	0.05	5	-0.24	8	75%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.13,-0.09,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.16,0.24,0.13,0.14	0.14	0.03	0.18	0.07	23	56%	0.29	3	-0.15	4	100%	0.04
Corie Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendall Gill	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	10	58%	0.04	1	-0.04	6	100%	0.05
Marcus Fizer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	43%	-0.00	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.07	0.00	7	57%	-0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	10	46%	-0.01	3	-0.07	4	75%	0.02
Eddy Curry	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.15	-0.02	-0.12	0.01	8	55%	-0.08	2	-0.08	4	75%	-0.02
Linton Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.13	-0.05	-0.01	7	19%	-0.12	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.23,-0.24	-0.24	-0.19	-0.07	-0.01	13	29%	-0.12	5	-0.12	2	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	530.0	1.8	25.0	15.8	26.0	2.5	37.4	638.4
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +64.9%

CHI -12.7%

NOH +1.0%

NOH +3.1%

CHI -6.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	CHI	NBA	NOH	CHI	NBA
this game	14.0	16.7	15.7	103.2	96.8	100.5
season	16.0	15.2		99.3	94.6
opponent	15.4	15.7		101.3	99.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	14.6	16.8	15.3	10.5	14.0
CHI	18.1	18.4	17.4	13.9	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamaal Magloire	66	65	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.37	12	-6	18	14.1	13.7	0.38	17.2	15.5	1.65
Darrell Armstrong	53	52	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.38	8	-2	10	13.1	15.1	-1.94	14.5	19.3	-4.79
Baron Davis	76	76	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.36	6	0	6	14.1	13.6	0.52	17.0	15.1	1.98
P.J. Brown	80	81	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.22	4	2	2	14.0	13.8	0.23	17.4	12.3	5.05
David Wesley	76	77	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.19	4	2	2	13.2	17.2	-3.94	16.8	16.1	0.66
Steven Smith	33	32	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.04	3	3	0	15.4	13.2	2.18	15.4	17.3	-1.95
David West	38	37	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.06	-4	10	-14	15.0	13.3	1.71	15.6	17.3	-1.67
George Lynch	48	50	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.00	-3	9	-12	14.0	14.0	-0.04	17.9	15.2	2.65

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Fizer	15	16	0.11	-0.61	0.71	-0.04	5	-11	16	16.7	16.6	0.09	15.7	13.6	2.06
Kendall Gill	55	55	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.05	-3	-3	0	16.7	16.6	0.16	13.1	15.3	-2.23
Corie Blount	33	33	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.06	-1	-5	4	16.4	16.8	-0.46	13.9	14.0	-0.11
Linton Johnson	27	27	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.03	-4	-2	-2	16.6	16.7	-0.04	13.1	14.3	-1.22
Kirk Hinrich	79	79	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.39	1	-7	8	16.1	19.7	-3.58	13.8	15.0	-1.22
Eddy Curry	59	60	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.24	-6	0	-6	18.0	14.5	3.51	15.4	11.4	4.02
Antonio Davis	83	80	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.31	-4	-2	-2	16.6	17.0	-0.39	13.6	16.2	-2.63
Jerome Williams	53	54	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.26	-7	1	-8	16.7	16.6	0.09	14.5	13.3	1.14
Jamal Crawford	66	66	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.34	-11	5	-16	16.3	17.5	-1.25	13.7	14.6	-0.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.63,0.55,0.63,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.69,0.71,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.57,0.48,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.61,0.38,0.77,0.43,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 106, GSW 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.51,0.62,0.66,0.61,0.48,0.53,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.57,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.54,0.6,0.45,0.55,0.33,0.27,0	91.5%
CLE 96, OKC 90	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.64,0.46,0.53,0.71,0.45,0.02,0	91.1%
MEM 99, OKC 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.6,0.52,0.7,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.38,0.46,0.55,0.08,0	90.8%