NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	81		Excitement	6.9 [421]		MVP	Kerry Kittles (NJN): +28.0%
New Jersey Nets	80		Comeback	1.5 [400]		LVP	Milt Palacio (TOR): -23.7%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.24,-0.24,0.11	-0.09	0.17	-0.02	20	44%	0.14	2	-0.03	8	75%	0.00
Morris Peterson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.06	0.08	-0.02	0.00	7	81%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.02
Lamond Murray	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	12	50%	0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.07,-0.07	0.02	-0.08	0.01	6	69%	-0.05	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Antonio Davis	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	5	50%	-0.00	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Milt Palacio	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.14	-0.12	-0.02	9	20%	-0.19	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kerry Kittles	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.28	0.28	0.00	0.27	-0.01	11	46%	0.28	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	0.01	0.02	9	71%	0.07	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Jason Collins	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brian Scalabrine	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Robert Pack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.01	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Zoran Planinic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	40%	-0.04	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.02
Rodney Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	-0.00	-0.02	5	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.06	0.01	7	60%	-0.05	3	-0.06	6	67%	-0.08
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.08,0.08,-0.03,-0.12	-0.12	0.09	-0.19	0.02	19	65%	-0.01	2	-0.11	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	301.1	2.4	26.2	15.5	26.2	0.1	35.2	406.8
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NJN -18.6%

TOR +55.8%

TOR +2.8%

TOR +22.0%

NJN -12.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	NJN	NBA	TOR	NJN	NBA
this game	19.0	16.6	15.7	101.2	97.6	100.5
season	16.8	15.3		94.8	98.1
opponent	16.2	15.7		95.2	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	18.6	14.4	19.9	24.1	19.0
NJN	16.6	18.4	16.9	14.3	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vince Carter	68	70	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.44	6	-5	11	19.0	18.7	0.26	16.9	14.9	1.98
Milt Palacio	58	59	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.47	1	0	1	19.1	18.6	0.47	16.0	18.1	-2.11
Chris Bosh	54	55	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.47	-4	5	-9	19.1	18.8	0.30	15.7	18.4	-2.62
Jerome Williams	44	47	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.04	13	-12	25	18.2	19.9	-1.76	17.2	15.8	1.46
Antonio Davis	62	62	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.52	-7	8	-15	19.5	17.3	2.12	16.9	15.7	1.20
Morris Peterson	32	34	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.33	-2	3	-5	19.2	18.8	0.41	16.3	16.9	-0.59
Lamond Murray	31	32	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.03	1	0	1	17.3	20.0	-2.75	15.4	17.4	-1.92
Michael Curry	29	28	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.10	-3	4	-7	20.4	18.2	2.26	17.6	16.1	1.57
Alvin Williams	22	23	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	1	-1	18.6	19.1	-0.47	18.1	16.0	2.11

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Scalabrine	11	10	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.01	-4	3	-7	16.3	16.7	-0.39	16.4	19.3	-2.94
Jason Collins	40	37	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.03	-3	2	-5	17.6	15.7	1.93	21.0	17.2	3.82
Aaron Williams	12	12	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.02	-4	3	-7	17.1	16.5	0.55	15.9	19.5	-3.60
Rodney Rogers	24	23	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.07	-3	2	-5	16.1	16.8	-0.74	17.3	19.7	-2.41
Brandon Armstrong	10	9	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.08	-9	8	-17	15.3	16.8	-1.49	14.2	19.6	-5.36
Alonzo Mourning	30	31	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.37	6	-7	13	15.1	17.5	-2.38	17.7	19.8	-2.07
Zoran Planinic	37	37	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.01	-7	6	-13	18.9	14.7	4.16	17.6	20.1	-2.47
Robert Pack	45	43	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.46	6	-7	13	14.7	18.9	-4.16	20.1	17.6	2.47
Kerry Kittles	72	71	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.55	8	-9	17	16.8	15.3	1.49	19.6	14.2	5.36
Kenyon Martin	67	66	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.50	6	-7	13	16.9	15.2	1.73	19.2	17.9	1.35
Richard Jefferson	62	61	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.44	-1	0	-1	16.5	16.8	-0.32	19.8	16.4	3.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.31,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.13,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.15,0.17,0.11,0.2,0.32,0.36,0.41,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 116, ATL 113	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.29,0.17,0.18,0.26,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.28,0.24,0.27,0	92.2%
TOR 92, MIL 89	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.32,0.25,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.38,0.63,0.57,0.08,0	91.3%
CHH 88, PHX 82	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.28,0.22,0.19,0.13,0.21,0.23,0.22,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.12,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.25,0.22,0.09,0.04,0	91.2%