NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	92		Excitement	6.3 [586]		MVP	Cory Joseph (TOR): +19.8%
Milwaukee Bucks	89		Comeback	1.9 [548]		LVP	Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL): -17.4%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cory Joseph	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.19,0.2	0.01	0.20	0.01	4	50%	0.20	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.03	0.07	-0.01	4	70%	0.12	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
DeMar DeRozan	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.04,0,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	24	56%	0.14	3	-0.06	9	89%	0.03
Delon Wright	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMarre Carroll	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.04	4	75%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.02	-0.00	9	59%	0.07	2	-0.08	4	50%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.01	7	44%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jonas Valanciunas	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	6	43%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Norman Powell	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.00	0.03	6	67%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
PJ Tucker	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	4	40%	-0.02	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1	0.10	0.02	0.08	0.00	8	50%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.00	0.05	13	58%	0.05	3	-0.06	7	57%	-0.06
John Henson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Monroe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	5	50%	0.02	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Matthew Dellavedova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.02	-0.04	0.04	9	55%	-0.02	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Malcolm Brogdon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	9	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Thon Maker	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	3	25%	-0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Tony Snell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.15,-0.17	-0.17	0.08	-0.14	0.12	23	58%	-0.12	3	-0.05	13	54%	-0.11

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.3	3.4	29.6	17.5	28.5	3.5	50.4	161.1
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +63.5%

TOR +7.0%

MIL -15.6%

MIL -4.7%

MIL -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIL	NBA	TOR	MIL	NBA
this game	16.9	16.4	14.8	107.0	102.3	107.7
season	15.2	14.9		110.0	107.4
opponent	15.3	14.9		107.8	106.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	16.7	15.8	18.1	17.0	16.9
MIL	14.7	17.8	17.9	15.7	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cory Joseph	27	28	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.62	-1	4	-5	14.7	17.9	-3.12	15.7	16.7	-0.98
DeMar DeRozan	73	74	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.39	5	-2	7	16.7	17.9	-1.22	16.2	17.4	-1.14
Kyle Lowry	80	80	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.31	7	-4	11	17.0	15.0	2.03	16.4	16.7	-0.33
Patrick Patterson	41	41	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.59	-3	6	-9	16.4	17.3	-0.90	16.8	16.1	0.69
Serge Ibaka	55	55	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.34	1	2	-1	17.5	15.7	1.79	16.6	16.2	0.41
Jonas Valanciunas	28	30	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.01	4	-1	5	17.4	16.7	0.70	16.8	16.2	0.54
DeMarre Carroll	26	27	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.00	3	0	3	17.1	16.8	0.28	15.3	16.9	-1.57
Delon Wright	10	9	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.04	3	0	3	16.4	16.9	-0.55	18.9	16.1	2.76
PJ Tucker	35	36	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.14	-9	12	-21	17.1	16.7	0.34	16.3	16.5	-0.18
Norman Powell	55	55	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.28	5	-2	7	17.3	16.1	1.18	16.6	16.1	0.51

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Monroe	35	37	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.42	11	-14	25	19.1	14.6	4.57	20.0	14.5	5.47
Jason Terry	31	32	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.32	7	-10	17	16.6	16.3	0.31	16.8	16.9	-0.06
Thon Maker	30	26	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.02	-4	1	-5	13.5	17.9	-4.45	16.7	17.0	-0.33
John Henson	16	16	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.06	-8	5	-13	17.5	16.2	1.33	14.0	17.5	-3.54
Malcolm Brogdon	45	43	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.09	-15	12	-27	15.7	17.1	-1.41	16.4	17.4	-0.98
Matthew Dellavedova	57	59	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.42	1	-4	5	17.4	14.5	2.97	16.7	17.2	-0.44
Tony Snell	59	58	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.16	-8	5	-13	15.9	17.6	-1.71	15.8	19.1	-3.24
Giannis Antetokounmpo	84	83	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.43	1	-4	5	16.4	18.0	-1.64	17.2	9.0	8.17
Khris Middleton	78	76	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.45	0	-3	3	16.1	18.9	-2.76	16.9	16.4	0.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.32,0.25,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.38,0.63,0.57,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 81, NJN 80	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.31,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.13,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.15,0.17,0.11,0.2,0.32,0.36,0.41,0.42,0	91.3%
NYK 97, PHI 92	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.23,0.31,0.24,0.2,0.17,0.26,0.31,0.36,0.25,0.27,0.31,0.2,0.08,0.06,0.11,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.15,0.1,0.14,0.36,0.67,0.29,0	91.0%
ATL 98, DET 95	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.39,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.31,0.34,0.3,0.18,0.14,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.19,0.08,0.16,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.16,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.04,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.17,0.2,0.28,0.33,0.13,0	90.6%