NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	82		Excitement	6.3 [551]		MVP	Mark Blount (BOS): +8.6%
Boston Celtics	91		Comeback	2.5 [731]		LVP	Bobby Jackson (SAC): -20.5%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brad Miller	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.09	-0.02	0.05	14	63%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Vlade Divac	0.02	0,0,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.05	13	45%	0.03	1	-0.01	3	33%	-0.04
Mike Bibby	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.01	14	47%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Peja Stojakovic	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	15	39%	-0.02	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Gerald Wallace	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	2	17%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Darius Songaila	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	3	12%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Doug Christie	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.02	10	32%	-0.03	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Tony Massenburg	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.05	0.00	7	33%	-0.05	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Bobby Jackson	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.16	-0.07	-0.03	12	35%	-0.06	5	-0.14	2	50%	-0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.02	-0.00	6	83%	0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.01	10	45%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kedrick Brown	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	7	47%	0.03	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Marcus Banks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.02	0.00	5	70%	0.11	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Jiri Welsch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	7	57%	0.01	2	-0.04	7	86%	0.01
Mike James	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	5	43%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Tony Battie	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Vin Baker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	17	50%	-0.01	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.14	-0.01	-0.04	19	40%	-0.01	4	-0.10	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.4	27.3	15.4	22.9	2.0	29.4	121.6
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +42.8%

BOS +8.5%

BOS +6.7%

SAC -8.3%

BOS +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	BOS	NBA	SAC	BOS	NBA
this game	15.4	14.8	15.7	85.4	95.8	100.5
season	14.7	14.4		106.9	99.5
opponent	15.9	15.6		102.1	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	14.1	14.0	14.8	19.8	15.4
BOS	14.1	13.7	14.0	18.1	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darius Songaila	13	13	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.02	4	-13	17	16.8	15.2	1.60	11.9	15.2	-3.30
Gerald Wallace	25	25	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.09	2	-11	13	15.2	15.4	-0.20	13.6	15.2	-1.64
Vlade Divac	56	57	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.03	-2	-7	5	14.2	17.1	-2.90	15.4	13.8	1.63
Doug Christie	72	73	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.23	3	-12	15	14.8	17.0	-2.21	15.2	13.3	1.89
Mike Bibby	71	71	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.08	-9	0	-9	15.1	16.3	-1.21	14.7	14.9	-0.14
Brad Miller	77	77	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.27	-6	-3	-3	15.1	16.4	-1.29	15.3	12.3	3.00
Peja Stojakovic	71	70	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.14	-11	2	-13	15.4	15.2	0.20	15.2	13.6	1.64
Bobby Jackson	49	46	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.16	-12	3	-15	16.7	14.1	2.59	14.1	15.4	-1.24
Tony Massenburg	46	43	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.15	-14	5	-19	16.9	14.0	2.89	13.7	15.6	-1.87

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Raef LaFrentz	42	43	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.14	12	-3	15	15.4	14.3	1.10	16.9	14.2	2.76
Eric Williams	42	45	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.04	14	-5	19	14.3	15.2	-0.91	15.7	15.1	0.57
Jiri Welsch	25	26	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.06	12	-3	15	13.8	15.1	-1.31	17.5	14.6	2.85
Vin Baker	75	75	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.24	3	6	-3	15.2	13.0	2.18	15.0	16.9	-1.94
Mike James	57	56	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.07	9	0	9	15.5	13.6	1.89	15.4	15.3	0.06
Mark Blount	36	36	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.03	9	0	9	12.6	16.1	-3.52	16.0	15.0	0.94
Marcus Banks	38	40	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.17	0	9	-9	13.6	15.5	-1.89	15.3	15.4	-0.06
Paul Pierce	70	70	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.17	-3	12	-15	15.1	13.8	1.31	14.6	17.5	-2.85
Kedrick Brown	53	51	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.20	-5	14	-19	15.2	14.3	0.91	15.1	15.7	-0.57
Tony Battie	37	38	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.06	-6	15	-21	15.3	14.4	0.82	13.9	16.3	-2.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.3,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.4,0.44,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.78,0.75,0.8,0.85,0.79,0.91,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 103, HOU 111	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.31,0.25,0.3,0.34,0.4,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.51,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.6,0.62,0.78,0.88,0.83,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.95,0.93,0.93,0.94,1,1	93.1%
IND 88, SEA 99	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.64,0.7,0.81,0.79,0.79,0.81,0.74,0.76,0.9,0.9,0.96,0.97,1,1	93.0%
PHI 88, CHI 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.36,0.39,0.32,0.31,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.44,0.48,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.48,0.61,0.59,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.35,0.31,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.82,0.82,0.89,0.95,0.97,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	92.9%