NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	93		Excitement	5.3 [736]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +19.3%
Dallas Mavericks	103		Comeback	1.4 [909]		LVP	Kirk Penney (MIA): -11.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Wallace	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	-0.01	0.00	13	68%	0.11	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Loren Woods	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.04	-0.03	0.05	9	65%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Bimbo Coles	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	7	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	12	67%	0.04	5	-0.09	6	67%	-0.01
Rafer Alston	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	15	50%	0.04	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.02	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Odom	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	0.01	19	42%	-0.05	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Kirk Penney	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	-0.00	6	25%	-0.04	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.10	0.08	-0.02	22	62%	0.23	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Tony Delk	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.14	0.03	0.02	9	85%	0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	10	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	10	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	14	46%	0.01	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	-0.04	0.05	8	72%	0.02	4	-0.11	9	89%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.3	1.8	22.1	16.4	21.5	2.3	30.3	114.8
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +33.9%

DAL +5.9%

MIA -11.8%

DAL +19.3%

DAL +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DAL	NBA	MIA	DAL	NBA
this game	15.9	14.2	15.7	97.9	107.3	100.5
season	16.2	14.6		99.3	109.2
opponent	15.6	15.9		105.0	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.3	15.6	18.0	16.1	15.9
DAL	12.3	15.0	14.7	15.2	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Loren Woods	8	8	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.05	4	-14	18	14.7	16.0	-1.27	20.1	13.7	6.41
Kirk Penney	29	31	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.07	1	-11	12	13.0	17.2	-4.20	13.5	14.6	-1.13
Bimbo Coles	49	48	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.01	-8	-2	-6	16.9	14.8	2.11	14.9	13.6	1.37
Malik Allen	23	25	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.09	-6	-4	-2	14.4	16.4	-2.01	13.3	14.6	-1.31
Brian Grant	81	80	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.09	-6	-4	-2	16.2	14.5	1.66	14.3	13.7	0.60
Lamar Odom	87	89	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.24	-3	-7	4	15.9	16.2	-0.36	14.4	12.3	2.12
John Wallace	44	43	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.19	-8	-2	-6	16.5	15.4	1.13	15.0	13.6	1.44
Rafer Alston	81	82	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.16	-11	1	-12	15.9	16.1	-0.18	13.6	18.3	-4.72
Udonis Haslem	73	74	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.17	-13	3	-16	16.4	14.2	2.20	13.8	15.7	-1.86

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	86	86	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.07	17	-7	24	14.0	16.1	-2.07	15.9	16.0	-0.09
Eduardo Najera	36	36	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.27	7	3	4	14.4	14.2	0.18	17.4	15.0	2.33
Michael Finley	72	70	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.11	11	-1	12	14.1	14.6	-0.44	15.6	16.8	-1.25
Antoine Walker	67	67	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.10	8	2	6	14.3	14.0	0.31	16.2	15.3	0.84
Steve Nash	72	71	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.11	7	3	4	13.8	15.7	-1.94	16.1	15.4	0.67
Tony Delk	58	59	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.01	6	4	2	13.3	15.6	-2.29	16.1	15.6	0.58
Travis Best	30	30	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.19	-2	12	-14	16.0	13.4	2.59	15.5	16.1	-0.66
Antawn Jamison	48	45	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.20	-4	14	-18	14.4	14.1	0.33	15.0	16.7	-1.66
Shawn Bradley	12	12	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.03	-2	12	-14	17.4	13.8	3.62	14.2	16.2	-1.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.63,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.62,0.56,0.67,0.82,0.87,0.9,0.88,0.8,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 87, SAC 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.54,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.66,0.7,0.85,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.83,0.93,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
SAS 85, LAC 98	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.62,0.7,0.78,0.87,0.91,0.97,0.96,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.2%
CLE 70, BOS 96	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.54,0.46,0.36,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.61,0.76,0.65,0.62,0.68,0.66,0.73,0.85,0.92,0.89,0.9,0.89,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.2%