NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	93		Excitement	7.8 [256]		MVP	Mike James (BOS): +43.2%
Memphis Grizzlies	91		Comeback	2.9 [165]		LVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): -27.6%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike James	0.43	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.43	0.02	0.38	-0.03	12	59%	0.49	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01
Walter McCarty	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.01	0.00	3	83%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vin Baker	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.13,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.03	0.05	14	69%	0.10	2	-0.05	7	57%	-0.04
Raef LaFrentz	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	5	40%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	78%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Mark Blount	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	8	33%	-0.08	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Marcus Banks	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	5	21%	-0.09	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Kedrick Brown	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	6	33%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	-0.28	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.16,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.28	-0.16	-0.11	0.00	15	56%	0.03	9	-0.31	11	82%	0.04

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stromile Swift	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,-0.01	-0.01	0.06	-0.07	0.00	11	64%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Wesley Person	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	6	46%	0.03	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.00	8	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jason Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	11	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.04
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	0.01	-0.00	8	12%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	3	50%	-0.01	2	-0.08	6	67%	-0.01
Mike Miller	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.14	0.03	-0.02	11	40%	0.01	5	-0.10	3	67%	-0.01
Pau Gasol	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.00	0.02	11	53%	0.01	4	-0.11	8	75%	0.07
James Posey	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	7	33%	-0.05	1	-0.06	1	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.3	2.7	26.2	15.7	27.2	2.5	40.2	143.7
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +74.5%

MEM -17.1%

BOS +8.9%

MEM -24.4%

BOS +8.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MEM	NBA	BOS	MEM	NBA
this game	14.4	15.0	15.7	95.9	91.9	100.5
season	14.4	15.3		99.5	102.3
opponent	15.7	15.9		100.5	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	13.6	15.3	13.4	15.5	14.4
MEM	14.1	16.0	16.1	14.0	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Walter McCarty	31	33	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.31	16	-14	30	15.2	14.0	1.18	15.9	14.5	1.33
Vin Baker	70	70	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.54	0	2	-2	14.2	14.9	-0.64	14.7	15.8	-1.14
Raef LaFrentz	44	45	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.20	9	-7	16	13.2	15.4	-2.26	15.4	14.7	0.71
Mike James	64	67	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.34	4	-2	6	14.9	13.4	1.51	15.3	14.3	0.95
Kedrick Brown	61	59	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.51	-4	6	-10	14.2	14.7	-0.48	14.9	15.2	-0.31
Tony Battie	42	43	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.11	2	0	2	14.3	14.5	-0.15	14.4	15.4	-1.01
Eric Williams	34	36	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.00	5	-3	8	14.8	14.2	0.57	15.7	14.6	1.11
Marcus Banks	33	32	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.10	-2	4	-6	13.4	14.9	-1.51	14.3	15.3	-0.95
Mark Blount	33	35	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.08	-8	10	-18	15.5	13.8	1.66	15.6	14.6	0.99
Paul Pierce	73	75	-0.33	0.83	-1.15	0.02	-12	14	-26	14.5	14.1	0.41	14.5	16.6	-2.16

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stromile Swift	61	61	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.29	13	-15	28	14.2	16.2	-2.02	15.4	12.7	2.65
James Posey	62	61	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.29	10	-12	22	14.3	16.2	-1.91	15.4	12.7	2.65
Mike Miller	65	65	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.32	9	-11	20	14.5	15.9	-1.36	15.2	12.7	2.54
Jason Williams	65	65	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.32	9	-11	20	14.5	15.9	-1.36	15.2	12.7	2.54
Pau Gasol	67	66	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.30	7	-9	16	14.4	16.2	-1.77	14.8	13.5	1.24
Bo Outlaw	32	31	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.14	-9	7	-16	16.2	14.4	1.77	13.5	14.8	-1.24
Earl Watson	34	32	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.12	-11	9	-20	15.9	14.5	1.36	12.7	15.2	-2.54
Wesley Person	34	32	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.12	-11	9	-20	15.9	14.5	1.36	12.7	15.2	-2.54
Shane Battier	37	36	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.15	-12	10	-22	16.2	14.3	1.91	12.7	15.4	-2.65
Lorenzen Wright	38	36	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.15	-15	13	-28	16.2	14.2	2.02	12.7	15.4	-2.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.65,0.66,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.71,0.64,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.7,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.66,0.63,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.29,0.17,0.19,0.09,0.09,0.22,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 88, LAC 84	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.72,0.64,0.71,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.58,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.23,0.11,0.05,0.13,0.1,0.02,0.01,0.04,0	93.2%
UTA 105, IND 96	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.68,0.7,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.7,0.78,0.73,0.74,0.74,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.46,0.48,0.29,0.28,0.15,0.14,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.03,0.05,0	93.1%
MIA 91, CHA 85	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.65,0.62,0.71,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.7,0.68,0.61,0.54,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.71,0.8,0.78,0.67,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.77,0.74,0.6,0.5,0.43,0.3,0.2,0.12,0.06,0.02,0.04,0.07,0,0,0.01,0	92.9%