NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	93		Excitement	3.6 [1093]		MVP	Al Harrington (IND): +9.6%
Indiana Pacers	79		Comeback	1.3 [499]		LVP	Metta World Peace (IND): -19.1%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Desmond Mason	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.01	0.02	8	77%	0.08	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.02
Michael Redd	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	17	58%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
T.J. Ford	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	7	73%	0.06	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Tim Thomas	0.03	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	12	69%	0.09	5	-0.06	5	80%	-0.00
Damon Jones	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.07	0.00	-0.05	3	0%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Brian Skinner	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.07	-0.00	-0.05	11	61%	0.05	6	-0.07	1	0%	-0.00
Toni Kukoc	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	-0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.13	-0.01	-0.03	10	36%	-0.05	4	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.16	0.00	0.06	17	70%	0.10	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	3	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	0.00	0.03	5	91%	0.03	2	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Primoz Brezec	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fred Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scot Pollard	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Anderson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	-0.03	7	43%	-0.00	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	18	33%	-0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Tinsley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.13	-0.00	-0.03	9	11%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.17,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.19	-0.02	-0.02	17	31%	-0.14	2	-0.05	8	62%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.5	2.4	28.4	15.5	22.8	2.0	34.2	127.0
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +45.5%

MIL +3.2%

MIL +15.8%

IND -12.2%

IND -2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	IND	NBA	MIL	IND	NBA
this game	15.6	17.0	15.7	103.3	90.8	100.5
season	15.3	16.7		103.6	101.1
opponent	15.7	15.5		94.7	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.9	12.5	18.2	17.7	15.6
IND	19.4	16.0	17.8	15.0	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Smith	65	62	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.12	13	1	12	15.3	16.3	-1.00	16.7	17.7	-1.00
Tim Thomas	61	60	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.05	17	-3	20	15.8	15.2	0.58	17.2	16.4	0.76
T.J. Ford	65	63	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.07	17	-3	20	15.3	16.3	-1.00	17.3	16.0	1.39
Brian Skinner	72	71	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.00	10	4	6	15.7	15.1	0.61	17.5	14.8	2.64
Michael Redd	71	69	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.02	9	5	4	15.6	15.4	0.23	17.5	15.0	2.48
Desmond Mason	58	55	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.13	5	9	-4	15.7	15.4	0.25	15.7	19.1	-3.37
Toni Kukoc	32	30	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.12	2	12	-10	15.7	15.6	0.09	16.8	17.1	-0.30
Damon Jones	26	25	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.17	-3	17	-20	15.8	15.5	0.29	16.3	17.2	-0.91

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Foster	22	25	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.12	5	-19	24	17.5	16.8	0.65	17.2	15.0	2.22
Primoz Brezec	1	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-12	10	12.0	17.0	-5.02	12.0	15.7	-3.68
Fred Jones	22	25	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.11	3	-17	20	14.9	17.7	-2.81	16.0	15.5	0.50
Anthony Johnson	33	33	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.19	5	-19	24	15.5	17.8	-2.29	17.8	14.3	3.45
Jamaal Tinsley	34	36	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.05	-1	-13	12	16.3	17.4	-1.05	16.3	15.1	1.22
Austin Croshere	23	22	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.02	-8	-6	-2	15.9	17.3	-1.43	15.8	15.5	0.23
Al Harrington	55	59	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.31	3	-17	20	15.9	18.8	-2.97	16.0	14.8	1.26
Jermaine O'Neal	66	69	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.19	-4	-10	6	17.4	15.6	1.84	15.5	15.9	-0.40
Scot Pollard	28	26	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.16	-17	3	-20	18.4	16.3	2.16	14.5	16.1	-1.60
Kenny Anderson	42	43	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.09	-17	3	-20	18.1	15.9	2.18	13.9	17.1	-3.20
Reggie Miller	39	40	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	0.14	-19	5	-24	18.0	16.1	1.92	13.9	16.9	-3.02
Metta World Peace	70	70	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	0.04	-18	4	-22	17.5	14.9	2.52	15.7	15.3	0.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.38,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.44,0.4,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.25,0.15,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 118, VAN 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.31,0.26,0.33,0.31,0.29,0.31,0.27,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.5%
LAL 106, GSW 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.47,0.43,0.53,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.56,0.52,0.53,0.46,0.36,0.31,0.35,0.25,0.29,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.15,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	96.4%
IND 95, ORL 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.28,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.25,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.11,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0	96.0%