NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	95		Excitement	6.8 [446]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +14.6%
Golden State Warriors	87		Comeback	2.8 [203]		LVP	Michael Finley (DAL): -13.2%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.15	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15	0.08	0.07	-0.00	18	67%	0.25	3	-0.10	7	100%	0.04
Travis Best	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Steve Nash	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.05	9	57%	0.10	2	-0.07	10	90%	0.02
Eduardo Najera	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	4	25%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	7	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.03	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.09,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	20	49%	0.05	3	-0.08	1	0%	-0.02
Tony Delk	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	5	33%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Antawn Jamison	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	6	29%	-0.08	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.02
Michael Finley	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	0.00	8	44%	-0.05	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.11	0.05	-0.03	15	41%	0.06	3	-0.09	4	0%	-0.06
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.04	-0.03	20	44%	-0.00	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02
Brian Cardinal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	5	57%	0.00	1	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	16	42%	0.00	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.02
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	18	38%	-0.02	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.01
Speedy Claxton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.03	-0.07	0.03	11	46%	-0.11	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.0	31.4	18.2	22.9	2.7	25.7	127.1
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +24.7%

DAL +19.8%

DAL +0.4%

DAL +4.7%

DAL +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	GSW	NBA	DAL	GSW	NBA
this game	12.4	17.6	15.7	99.0	90.6	100.5
season	14.6	16.1		109.2	100.8
opponent	15.3	15.6		101.6	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	10.2	14.4	12.5	12.6	12.4
GSW	17.3	17.6	19.6	16.2	17.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Finley	85	86	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.20	18	-10	28	12.0	15.7	-3.76	17.6	17.4	0.23
Dirk Nowitzki	91	91	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.17	19	-11	30	12.2	16.2	-4.01	17.8	14.8	2.96
Eduardo Najera	39	38	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.29	12	-4	16	11.5	13.0	-1.53	17.6	17.6	-0.04
Steve Nash	79	78	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.20	14	-6	20	11.6	15.9	-4.31	17.8	16.9	0.88
Antoine Walker	84	83	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.33	3	5	-2	12.2	13.5	-1.26	17.8	16.3	1.50
Tony Delk	26	26	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.05	1	7	-6	12.3	12.4	-0.07	18.0	17.5	0.54
Josh Howard	22	22	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.03	-3	11	-14	15.2	11.6	3.61	16.9	17.8	-0.96
Shawn Bradley	1	1	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.03	-2	10	-12	1.0	12.5	-11.52	15.0	17.6	-2.63
Travis Best	17	18	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.07	-6	14	-20	15.9	11.6	4.31	16.9	17.8	-0.88
Antawn Jamison	31	32	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	0.02	-5	13	-18	13.6	11.8	1.75	17.3	17.7	-0.44
Danny Fortson	5	5	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.09	-11	19	-30	16.2	12.2	4.01	14.8	17.8	-2.96

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mickael Pietrus	30	30	0.19	-0.69	0.87	-0.05	8	-16	24	17.1	17.8	-0.73	11.5	12.8	-1.25
Brian Cardinal	26	26	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-10	12	17.1	17.8	-0.72	12.7	12.3	0.46
Speedy Claxton	40	41	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.00	-7	-1	-6	18.7	16.8	1.88	11.3	13.2	-1.97
Avery Johnson	57	56	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.27	-1	-7	6	16.8	18.8	-1.96	13.2	11.3	1.84
Clifford Robinson	90	90	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.24	-4	-4	0	17.6	17.8	-0.24	12.9	4.5	8.42
Calbert Cheaney	91	91	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.28	-10	2	-12	17.8	14.6	3.17	12.3	13.4	-1.06
Erick Dampier	69	69	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.24	-12	4	-16	17.8	17.0	0.84	12.4	12.3	0.14
Mike Dunleavy	77	77	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.19	-16	8	-24	17.6	17.6	0.03	12.1	13.7	-1.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.24,0.21,0.29,0.37,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.64,0.71,0.68,0.66,0.63,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.3,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.31,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 91, CHA 84	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.25,0.28,0.24,0.32,0.34,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.56,0.62,0.63,0.48,0.38,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.37,0.17,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0	93.3%
DET 115, NYK 109	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.41,0.35,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.35,0.37,0.3,0.36,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.69,0.77,0.57,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.25,0.33,0.23,0.17,0.19,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.01,0	93.2%
SAS 87, LAL 82	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.58,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.55,0.63,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.48,0.38,0.52,0.38,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.16,0.17,0.07,0.03,0.04,0,0	93.1%