NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	91		Excitement	6.6 [543]		MVP	Hassan Whiteside (MIA): +18.3%
Charlotte Hornets	84		Comeback	1.8 [447]		LVP	Jeremy Lamb (CHA): -19.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hassan Whiteside	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.09	0.12	0.02	14	58%	0.18	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.02
Kelly Olynyk	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16	0.15	0.05	0.04	14	76%	0.19	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Josh Richardson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0	-0.04	0.02	-0.02	14	41%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.02
Derrick Jones Jr.	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	0.01	-0.01	2	40%	0.01	4	-0.08	1	0%	-0.01
Justise Winslow	-0.07	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	9	50%	0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	0.02	6	83%	0.05	5	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Rodney McGruder	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	0.02	6	25%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dion Waiters	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	0.00	10	30%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.15,-0.1,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13	-0.20	0.03	-0.04	15	25%	-0.02	4	-0.10	2	0%	-0.05

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Frank Kaminsky	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.13	0.11	0.07	11	83%	0.22	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.03
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	2	67%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.06
Miles Bridges	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	4	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Cody Zeller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	0.02	10	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kemba Walker	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.04	0.02	17	49%	0.01	4	-0.10	7	100%	0.04
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	5	20%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	12	37%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.12	-0.05	0.00	13	35%	-0.07	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lamb	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.12	-0.08	-0.01	8	39%	-0.04	5	-0.16	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.4	27.4	14.7	27.7	0.7	33.2	129.3
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +31.4%

CHA -3.8%

MIA +6.4%

MIA +14.2%

MIA +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHA	NBA	MIA	CHA	NBA
this game	15.8	14.6	14.3	95.8	89.4	109.3
season	14.8	14.6		106.3	110.4
opponent	14.3	14.3		111.6	106.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.0	15.4	15.5	16.4	15.8
CHA	16.0	11.8	17.2	14.2	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kelly Olynyk	86	86	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.22	13	-6	19	15.8	15.8	0.07	15.1	9.1	6.01
Dwyane Wade	59	60	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.25	11	-4	15	15.4	16.5	-1.06	14.4	15.1	-0.68
Hassan Whiteside	41	39	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.37	7	0	7	15.3	16.3	-0.97	14.4	14.8	-0.33
Rodney McGruder	53	51	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.45	0	7	-7	15.2	16.6	-1.35	14.9	14.3	0.60
Josh Richardson	80	78	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.41	-2	9	-11	15.9	15.5	0.37	14.2	16.9	-2.78
Justise Winslow	49	49	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.17	7	0	7	15.6	16.1	-0.52	15.3	13.9	1.42
Dion Waiters	47	47	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.07	3	4	-1	17.0	14.7	2.25	14.8	14.4	0.40
Bam Adebayo	49	49	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	-0.06	2	5	-3	16.8	14.8	1.93	14.6	14.6	-0.03
Derrick Jones Jr.	11	11	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.07	-6	13	-19	14.5	16.0	-1.47	10.9	15.1	-4.21

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Miles Bridges	37	35	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-7	7	15.5	14.1	1.42	15.1	16.2	-1.11
Bismack Biyombo	17	16	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.08	-2	-5	3	14.5	14.6	-0.12	13.6	16.3	-2.67
Cody Zeller	55	56	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.14	0	-7	7	14.3	15.1	-0.72	17.1	14.1	3.04
Tony Parker	42	43	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.50	10	-17	27	15.0	14.3	0.72	15.4	16.2	-0.82
Kemba Walker	72	73	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.16	-2	-5	3	14.4	15.3	-0.84	16.3	14.4	1.86
Nicolas Batum	76	78	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.20	-5	-2	-3	14.6	14.8	-0.25	16.4	13.1	3.32
Frank Kaminsky	46	47	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.39	1	-8	9	14.9	14.4	0.52	15.4	16.3	-0.87
Marvin Williams	70	71	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.02	-13	6	-19	14.7	14.4	0.34	15.6	16.4	-0.77
Jeremy Lamb	55	56	-0.69	0.19	-0.89	0.01	-24	17	-41	14.1	15.4	-1.34	15.2	16.7	-1.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.25,0.28,0.24,0.32,0.34,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.56,0.62,0.63,0.48,0.38,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.37,0.17,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 95, GSW 87	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.24,0.21,0.29,0.37,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.64,0.71,0.68,0.66,0.63,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.3,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.31,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.01,0	93.3%
CHH 107, PHI 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.39,0.35,0.33,0.31,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.35,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.5,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.1,0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0	93.0%
NOH 92, POR 77	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.33,0.34,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.66,0.68,0.65,0.7,0.6,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.29,0.28,0.24,0.11,0.16,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	92.5%