NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	85		Excitement	3.4 [1093]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +14.0%
San Antonio Spurs	98		Comeback	1.0 [1180]		LVP	Yao Ming (HOU): -14.6%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Posey	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	7	64%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Moochie Norris	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	6	79%	0.07	3	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Terence Morris	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.00	7	60%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Juaquin Hawkins	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Taylor	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.02	11	60%	0.03	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Glen Rice	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cuttino Mobley	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	18	50%	-0.00	2	-0.02	6	83%	0.02
Kelvin Cato	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	7	43%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Steve Francis	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.01	-0.02	12	33%	-0.04	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Yao Ming	-0.15	0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.13	-0.03	-0.01	9	11%	-0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.15	0.02	0.03	16	71%	0.14	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.12	0.01	0.04	17	67%	0.11	1	-0.02	6	33%	-0.03
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.03	0.00	-0.06	8	47%	0.05	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.01
Speedy Claxton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	7	44%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
David Robinson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Kerr	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	12	46%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.01	3	33%	-0.02
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.14	-0.01	-0.05	7	33%	-0.03	5	-0.07	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	3.6	27.0	18.8	28.1	1.7	30.3	134.9
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +38.6%

HOU -3.3%

HOU -0.8%

SAS +12.1%

SAS +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	SAS	NBA	HOU	SAS	NBA
this game	17.7	15.4	15.5	97.7	112.6	101.6
season	16.3	15.7		101.7	102.5
opponent	15.4	15.4		96.9	100.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	19.6	19.9	16.7	15.0	17.7
SAS	14.0	16.9	13.9	17.0	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Juaquin Hawkins	34	34	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.17	4	-17	21	14.5	19.7	-5.19	16.4	14.8	1.54
Kelvin Cato	41	41	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.15	0	-13	13	18.3	17.1	1.19	16.2	14.7	1.52
Maurice Taylor	54	55	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.06	-5	-8	3	17.5	17.9	-0.40	14.1	17.7	-3.65
Moochie Norris	46	45	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.15	-2	-11	9	17.3	18.1	-0.73	15.8	15.0	0.89
James Posey	36	36	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.07	-10	-3	-7	19.6	16.4	3.23	14.3	16.2	-1.84
Glen Rice	25	24	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.05	-7	-6	-1	19.3	17.0	2.29	17.1	14.8	2.31
Cuttino Mobley	68	68	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.08	-6	-7	1	16.7	21.1	-4.37	15.0	16.9	-1.89
Yao Ming	30	30	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.08	-13	0	-13	18.6	17.2	1.34	14.1	16.1	-2.01
Terence Morris	49	48	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.11	-8	-5	-3	16.8	18.8	-2.05	17.1	13.4	3.72
Steve Francis	52	54	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	0.02	-18	5	-23	19.2	15.4	3.78	15.0	16.2	-1.19

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stephen Jackson	68	66	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.12	13	0	13	15.5	15.3	0.19	18.2	16.0	2.23
David Robinson	34	33	0.44	0.06	0.37	-0.12	19	-6	25	13.6	16.6	-3.00	20.0	16.3	3.67
Tony Parker	56	56	0.43	0.07	0.35	-0.13	19	-6	25	14.9	16.4	-1.51	17.2	18.6	-1.43
Tim Duncan	59	60	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.01	11	2	9	15.6	15.0	0.56	18.1	16.8	1.27
Manu Ginobili	43	46	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.01	7	6	1	16.3	14.6	1.66	17.8	17.5	0.29
Bruce Bowen	59	59	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.09	4	9	-5	14.8	16.6	-1.81	17.0	19.1	-2.14
Speedy Claxton	30	29	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.19	-1	14	-15	15.9	15.2	0.74	19.2	16.9	2.33
Kevin Willis	26	26	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.08	2	11	-9	16.0	15.1	0.89	16.8	18.0	-1.20
Danny Ferry	8	9	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.08	-1	14	-15	16.4	15.3	1.06	13.6	18.2	-4.61
Malik Rose	47	46	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.19	-5	18	-23	16.0	14.7	1.28	16.8	18.7	-1.83
Steve Kerr	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	16	-19	17.6	15.3	2.32	14.2	17.9	-3.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.72,0.74,0.79,0.75,0.82,0.8,0.79,0.8,0.8,0.89,0.96,0.94,0.93,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 71, MEM 82	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.63,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.75,0.74,0.77,0.82,0.84,0.84,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.89,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.4%
LAC 82, MEM 105	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.74,0.76,0.74,0.8,0.79,0.8,0.86,0.84,0.84,0.87,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%
ATL 66, BOS 86	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.79,0.86,0.86,0.79,0.79,0.85,0.85,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%