NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	98		Excitement	4.5 [897]		MVP	Rasual Butler (MIA): +8.5%
Miami Heat	107		Comeback	1.5 [675]		LVP	Morris Peterson (TOR): -11.1%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alvin Williams	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.00	-0.01	9	68%	0.08	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Michael Bradley	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.02	5	62%	0.04	1	-0.03	3	0%	-0.01
Mamadou N'diaye	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	6	57%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Vince Carter	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.06	23	58%	0.03	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.01
Jelani McCoy	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.06	5	83%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Rafer Alston	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	4	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Jefferies	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	0.03	6	67%	0.00	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	5	54%	0.01	3	-0.08	3	33%	-0.02
Voshon Lenard	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	10	30%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.14,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	0.00	9	33%	-0.03	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	13	69%	0.14	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	15	60%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.02	-0.01	15	61%	0.11	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.02
Brian Grant	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.01	8	67%	0.07	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.01	-0.05	6	60%	0.05	2	-0.01	3	100%	0.00
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Sean Lampley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	7	61%	0.02	1	-0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Ken Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	4	20%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	-0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.04	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.4	26.0	15.7	27.4	2.3	29.6	127.8
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +36.2%

TOR -4.0%

TOR -5.2%

MIA +21.8%

MIA +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIA	NBA	TOR	MIA	NBA
this game	16.7	13.0	15.5	102.1	109.2	101.6
season	16.2	16.3		98.8	94.6
opponent	15.9	15.3		100.7	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	16.6	17.1	19.0	14.7	16.7
MIA	12.2	12.4	14.6	13.0	13.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Jefferies	35	36	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.25	6	-15	21	14.7	17.9	-3.24	13.1	13.0	0.16
Mamadou N'diaye	52	52	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.09	-3	-6	3	17.8	15.5	2.29	12.9	13.2	-0.27
Jerome Williams	37	38	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.05	-5	-4	-1	17.0	16.5	0.46	12.6	13.3	-0.70
Alvin Williams	70	71	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.30	3	-12	15	16.4	17.5	-1.07	13.4	12.0	1.39
Vince Carter	69	71	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.30	2	-11	13	16.2	18.0	-1.83	13.2	12.5	0.68
Rafer Alston	26	27	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.06	-12	3	-15	17.5	16.4	1.07	12.0	13.4	-1.39
Michael Bradley	59	60	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.18	-4	-5	1	16.5	17.0	-0.46	13.3	12.6	0.70
Jelani McCoy	42	43	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.16	-5	-4	-1	16.0	17.3	-1.28	13.8	12.4	1.47
Morris Peterson	56	57	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.04	-13	4	-17	17.5	15.6	1.92	12.9	13.2	-0.36
Voshon Lenard	34	35	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.06	-14	5	-19	17.9	16.1	1.76	11.9	13.6	-1.66

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Travis Best	48	45	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.10	11	-2	13	11.9	14.1	-2.22	16.5	16.9	-0.35
Rasual Butler	63	61	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.06	9	0	9	13.0	13.1	-0.07	16.8	16.5	0.32
Sean Lampley	41	41	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.10	7	2	5	13.0	13.0	-0.06	16.8	16.6	0.19
Malik Allen	51	48	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.16	4	5	-1	13.6	12.4	1.25	17.5	15.9	1.65
Brian Grant	50	50	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.08	6	3	3	12.8	13.2	-0.35	16.0	17.5	-1.42
Caron Butler	67	66	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.37	-5	14	-19	13.5	12.0	1.43	16.4	17.3	-0.89
Vladimir Stepania	45	47	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.04	8	1	7	13.3	12.8	0.47	17.7	15.8	1.88
Mike James	25	24	0.15	0.35	-0.21	-0.06	7	2	5	11.9	13.4	-1.46	17.0	16.6	0.37
LaPhonso Ellis	14	14	0.14	0.35	-0.21	-0.00	5	4	1	10.4	13.5	-3.10	17.6	16.6	1.00
Ken Johnson	33	31	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.29	-6	15	-21	14.0	12.5	1.49	15.5	17.3	-1.82
Anthony Carter	53	53	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.12	-1	10	-11	13.5	12.4	1.05	16.4	17.1	-0.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.72,0.8,0.78,0.79,0.84,0.85,0.83,0.86,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.85,0.92,0.9,0.87,0.94,0.97,0.99,1,1,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,0.95,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 83, MEM 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.44,0.4,0.51,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.88,0.9,0.89,0.86,0.89,0.85,0.82,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%
MIA 93, TOR 108	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.86,0.82,0.85,0.78,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.86,0.87,0.89,0.95,0.92,0.97,0.98,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%
LAL 84, SAS 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.84,0.85,0.83,0.79,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.88,0.86,0.89,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.99,1,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%