NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	105		Excitement	9.5 [92]		MVP	Malik Rose (SAS): +11.0%
Milwaukee Bucks	102		Comeback	33.7 [41]		LVP	Michael Redd (MIL): -23.5%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Rose	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.01	0.01	21	67%	0.19	2	-0.08	9	89%	-0.00
Tim Duncan	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.11,-0.11,0.06	0.01	0.05	0.01	11	78%	0.32	6	-0.27	10	90%	0.17
Kevin Willis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Steve Kerr	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.03
Speedy Claxton	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	8	39%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.06
Manu Ginobili	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	4	56%	0.04	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	12	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.04
Danny Ferry	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	1	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Stephen Jackson	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	10	35%	-0.07	1	-0.04	3	0%	-0.08

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Cassell	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.12,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.06	-0.01	18	58%	0.15	2	-0.05	9	78%	0.01
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.18,0.09	0.09	0.13	-0.04	-0.00	13	77%	0.16	2	-0.07	5	80%	0.04
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.03	0.02	15	67%	0.12	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.02
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.03	0.01	16	61%	0.08	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.01
Jason Caffey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.06	2	0%	0.01	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.01,-0.15	-0.15	-0.05	-0.10	0.00	3	33%	-0.11	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.24	-0.23	-0.04	-0.20	0.00	7	29%	-0.23	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.4	1.8	29.2	16.3	25.5	0.6	36.6	130.4
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +19.6%

SAS +44.0%

MIL -3.2%

MIL -13.5%

SAS +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIL	NBA	SAS	MIL	NBA
this game	16.7	15.7	15.5	118.0	114.6	101.6
season	15.7	15.4		102.5	106.3
opponent	15.8	15.4		106.5	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	18.6	15.6	16.5	16.1	16.7
MIL	14.1	15.1	14.8	19.1	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	51	50	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.52	8	-5	13	15.4	18.4	-3.03	16.3	14.8	1.52
Manu Ginobili	46	48	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.47	4	-1	5	16.7	16.7	-0.07	16.4	14.9	1.48
Tim Duncan	83	80	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.32	9	-6	15	16.7	17.2	-0.52	16.1	12.0	4.09
Bruce Bowen	77	75	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.33	4	-1	5	16.8	16.2	0.50	15.9	14.4	1.56
Malik Rose	64	65	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.37	0	3	-3	16.9	16.2	0.62	15.2	16.9	-1.64
Stephen Jackson	60	60	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.16	-2	5	-7	16.3	17.4	-1.03	15.3	16.5	-1.25
Danny Ferry	14	12	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.05	1	2	-1	14.8	17.0	-2.25	14.8	15.8	-0.97
Steve Kerr	12	15	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.06	-4	7	-11	17.9	16.5	1.42	13.7	16.1	-2.41
Speedy Claxton	27	25	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	-0.12	1	2	-1	18.0	16.1	1.83	15.0	15.9	-0.88
Kevin Willis	12	16	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.03	-6	9	-15	19.6	16.2	3.35	14.4	16.0	-1.58

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Mason	48	49	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.22	-2	-1	-1	15.3	16.1	-0.88	16.7	16.7	-0.07
Jason Caffey	8	6	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	0.05	-3	0	-3	17.2	15.5	1.73	19.0	16.5	2.48
Tim Thomas	43	41	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.01	-3	0	-3	15.3	16.0	-0.72	16.7	16.7	0.04
Michael Redd	32	32	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.13	-1	-2	1	15.8	15.6	0.22	17.7	16.1	1.61
Toni Kukoc	56	55	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.46	5	-8	13	16.0	15.1	0.98	17.0	16.2	0.82
Ervin Johnson	42	42	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.38	-2	-1	-1	15.9	15.5	0.39	16.8	16.6	0.28
Desmond Mason	70	73	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.42	-2	-1	-1	15.6	16.0	-0.41	16.4	18.0	-1.60
Gary Payton	78	76	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.50	-1	-2	1	15.6	16.2	-0.58	17.0	15.1	1.88
Sam Cassell	68	71	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.45	-6	3	-9	15.7	15.6	0.07	15.7	20.6	-4.85

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.58,0.48,0.49,0.58,0.52,0.45,0.55,0.48,0.63,0.63,0.72,0.85,0.78,0.71,0.62,0.77,0.69,0.76,0.61,0.47,0.64,0.68,0.92,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 90, MIA 89	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.59,0.62,0.56,0.67,0.79,0.78,0.74,0.7,0.8,0.77,0.79,0.71,0.73,0.62,0.63,0.55,0.73,0	91.9%
CHI 115, WAS 114	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.54,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.61,0.56,0.5,0.58,0.63,0.67,0.7,0.61,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.66,0.75,0.71,0.76,0.7,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.77,0.71,0.68,0.85,0	91.5%
MIN 99, OKC 96	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.34,0.43,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.66,0.52,0.54,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.6,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.55,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.77,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.47,0.63,0.9,0.85,0	91.3%