inpredictable
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NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)
Real Time? Pre Game Odds?
Miami Heat 116 Excitement6.7 [456] MVPCaron Butler (MIA): +31.9%
Memphis Grizzlies 126 Comeback1.2 [790] LVPJason Williams (MEM): -10.5%


Miami Heat
PlayerWPAeWPAclWPAgbWPAFGATS%tsWPATOtoWPAFTAFT%ftWPA
Caron Butler0.320,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,0.26,0.26,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.320.010.330.021860%0.474-0.15475%0.00
Eddie Jones0.050,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.050.14-0.030.061573%0.071-0.023100%0.04
Rasual Butler0.040,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.040.030.00-0.00462%0.0400.0000%0.00
LaPhonso Ellis-0.000,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0-0.000.000.002100%0.042-0.0400%0.00
Mike James-0.000,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,00.000.000.01275%0.001-0.0100%0.00
Sean Marks-0.040,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04-0.03-0.000.01350%-0.021-0.0120%-0.03
Vladimir Stepania-0.060,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06-0.05-0.01-0.00425%-0.041-0.0200%0.00
Brian Grant-0.060,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.060.02-0.050.031554%-0.041-0.025100%0.02
Travis Best-0.060,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06-0.01-0.06-0.011456%0.013-0.07475%0.00
Eddie House-0.080,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08-0.06-0.03-0.00617%-0.0800.0000%0.00
Malik Allen-0.090,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09-0.05-0.010.031244%-0.052-0.041100%0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
PlayerWPAeWPAclWPAgbWPAFGATS%tsWPATOtoWPAFTAFT%ftWPA
Wesley Person0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.150.150.110.070.031073%0.1500.006100%0.09
Shane Battier0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.090.090.060.040.011073%0.132-0.032100%0.04
Stromile Swift0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.050.050.030.01-0.01860%0.0500.004100%0.01
Earl Watson0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.040.040.020.01-0.02487%0.072-0.0300%0.00
Mike Batiste0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.030.030.030.010.00773%0.062-0.031100%0.00
Lorenzen Wright0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.02,0.020.02-0.020.050.011154%0.062-0.034100%0.02
Brevin Knight0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.010.01-0.040.00-0.05440%0.0110.0020%-0.01
Pau Gasol0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05-0.05-0.01-0.020.021661%0.084-0.13978%-0.01
Jason Williams0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.16,-0.19,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11-0.11-0.07-0.030.001260%0.126-0.22683%0.00
Game Length Report (minutes)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 OT1Total
this game23.02.027.316.324.62.541.41.315.6154.0
league avg46.12.328.014.724.52.329.91.917.2149.2
Win Probability Added by the Four Factors
(aka How the Game Was Won)
victory
100% WP
start
50% WP
MEM +22.8%
MEM +21.3%
MEM +7.8%
MIA -8.3%
MEM +6.5%
Pace and Efficiency Report

seconds / possessionpoints / 100 possessions
all possessionsMIAMEMNBAMIAMEMNBA
this game14.615.215.5109.4117.8101.6
season16.315.394.6101.8
opponent15.215.9105.1100.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTotal
MIA12.318.215.314.312.714.6
MEM15.414.517.416.310.415.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
possessionswin probabilitypointspace (offense)pace (defense)
playeroffensedefenseonoffdiffcl+/-onoffdiffonoffdiffonoffdiff
LaPhonso Ellis1312-0.09-0.410.310.05-5-5014.414.7-0.2714.715.3-0.54
Sean Marks2526-0.15-0.350.20-0.181-111215.914.21.6517.314.62.69
Rasual Butler2120-0.19-0.310.120.05-8-2-615.714.41.3016.415.01.43
Eddie House4850-0.21-0.290.07-0.241-111214.215.0-0.8315.614.90.61
Mike James1819-0.24-0.260.030.03-9-1-819.413.65.7416.515.01.51
Vladimir Stepania2119-0.24-0.260.030.06-100-1016.014.31.6614.015.5-1.50
Malik Allen5354-0.25-0.25-0.010.07-111-1214.314.9-0.5715.015.5-0.43
Travis Best8888-0.26-0.24-0.03-0.23-1-9813.619.4-5.7415.016.5-1.51
Brian Grant7174-0.26-0.24-0.03-0.21-2-8614.814.20.6315.913.72.27
Caron Butler7374-0.27-0.23-0.05-0.19-3-7414.415.1-0.7214.018.1-4.09
Eddie Jones9999-0.33-0.17-0.16-0.24-3-7414.220.3-6.0615.116.5-1.37

Memphis Grizzlies
possessionswin probabilitypointspace (offense)pace (defense)
playeroffensedefenseonoffdiffcl+/-onoffdiffonoffdiffonoffdiff
Lorenzen Wright66660.57-0.070.640.4837-415.514.80.6613.915.8-1.89
Pau Gasol79780.370.130.240.081001015.016.0-0.9913.717.1-3.38
Wesley Person94920.360.140.210.2446-215.215.3-0.0814.813.31.54
Mike Batiste40410.320.180.150.0982615.714.90.7815.913.82.09
Jason Williams75730.290.210.090.1555014.915.9-1.0013.716.6-2.84
Brevin Knight32330.210.29-0.090.0655015.914.91.0016.613.72.84
Stromile Swift26250.140.36-0.230.0828-616.214.91.3217.813.64.16
Shane Battier7069-0.120.62-0.74-0.12010-1016.113.72.3813.916.0-2.07
Earl Watson4040-0.140.64-0.78-0.2337-414.315.8-1.4115.614.01.65


Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.57,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.6,0.66,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.78,0.77,0.8,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.82,0.81,0.86,0.82,0.89,0.95,0.95,0.9,0.89,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.96,0.89,0.79,0.85,0.91,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.91,1,1
GameSimilarity Score
OKC 95, MEM 980.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.76,0.84,0.83,0.81,0.81,0.79,0.88,0.81,0.93,0.92,0.92,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.94,0.9,0.89,0.85,0.84,0.46,0.32,0.63,0.91,0.92,193.7%
CHI 108, IND 1150.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.7,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.69,0.71,0.76,0.69,0.78,0.84,0.88,0.88,0.86,0.83,0.74,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.97,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.89,0.93,0.9,0.91,0.46,0.61,0.84,0.96,0.98,193.0%
HOU 98, WAS 1000.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.79,0.78,0.84,0.89,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.91,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.96,0.9,0.88,0.96,0.92,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.77,0.91,192.2%