NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	85		Excitement	6.2 [552]		MVP	J.R. Bremer (BOS): +27.2%
Boston Celtics	90		Comeback	1.1 [889]		LVP	Antoine Walker (BOS): -19.0%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rafer Alston	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	62%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Michael Bradley	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Maceo Baston	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.02	-0.07	0.03	-0.02	11	42%	0.01	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Alvin Williams	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	14	39%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	0.01	12	43%	-0.06	1	-0.03	4	0%	-0.07
Antonio Davis	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	10	54%	0.04	4	-0.14	4	75%	-0.01
Morris Peterson	-0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.08	-0.01	10	46%	-0.11	1	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Vince Carter	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.08	-0.09	0.01	18	43%	-0.12	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.04

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Bremer	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.23,0.29,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.16	0.13	0.02	10	91%	0.29	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Eric Williams	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.03	-0.00	12	60%	0.09	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	5	80%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Delk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	5	73%	0.09	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.01
Grant Long	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.02	-0.01	2	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kedrick Brown	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Walter McCarty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	5	8%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.18,-0.2,-0.22,-0.23,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.2,-0.21,-0.24,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.23,-0.24,-0.24,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.29,-0.29,-0.24,-0.27,-0.19	-0.19	-0.24	0.04	-0.01	28	35%	-0.07	5	-0.12	6	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.7	32.3	16.5	26.6	2.7	35.2	139.4
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +56.8%

BOS +0.9%

TOR -21.7%

BOS +16.1%

TOR -2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	BOS	NBA	TOR	BOS	NBA
this game	17.3	17.4	15.5	103.7	107.1	101.6
season	16.2	15.6		98.8	99.3
opponent	15.5	15.3		99.9	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	20.0	14.8	19.4	15.7	17.3
BOS	17.0	16.5	17.6	18.6	17.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Maceo Baston	9	9	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.00	-1	-4	3	16.2	17.4	-1.22	15.2	17.7	-2.43
Vince Carter	58	61	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.13	-1	-4	3	17.7	16.5	1.20	17.7	16.7	0.96
Rafer Alston	27	27	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.16	-1	-4	3	15.6	18.2	-2.61	17.7	17.3	0.40
Jerome Williams	63	65	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.31	3	-8	11	17.4	17.1	0.33	17.6	16.7	0.92
Michael Bradley	26	25	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.06	-7	2	-9	16.9	17.5	-0.56	17.3	17.4	-0.16
Alvin Williams	55	57	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.19	-4	-1	-3	18.2	15.6	2.61	17.3	17.7	-0.40
Voshon Lenard	44	44	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.29	-1	-4	3	16.1	18.7	-2.52	17.2	17.6	-0.49
Antonio Davis	66	69	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.34	-5	0	-5	17.5	16.4	1.16	17.5	16.8	0.72
Morris Peterson	62	63	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.28	-8	3	-11	17.8	15.7	2.06	17.3	17.7	-0.37

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
J.R. Bremer	64	62	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.02	18	-13	31	16.4	20.4	-4.01	18.0	15.1	2.92
Eric Williams	49	50	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.14	8	-3	11	16.8	18.3	-1.48	17.9	16.3	1.58
Grant Long	24	24	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.22	4	1	3	19.1	16.7	2.42	17.2	17.3	-0.14
Antoine Walker	73	72	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.29	0	5	-5	17.2	18.4	-1.12	17.1	18.7	-1.59
Tony Battie	28	28	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.09	5	0	5	17.1	17.5	-0.43	20.7	15.5	5.23
Kedrick Brown	39	39	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.14	3	2	1	17.3	17.5	-0.25	18.7	16.0	2.74
Walter McCarty	55	52	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.33	-4	9	-13	18.3	15.6	2.71	15.8	20.0	-4.20
Mark Blount	43	40	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.11	1	4	-3	16.9	18.0	-1.09	15.3	19.2	-3.91
Tony Delk	45	43	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.42	-10	15	-25	18.4	16.2	2.17	16.1	18.6	-2.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.74,0.65,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.78,0.9,0.88,0.91,0.92,0.89,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.9,0.85,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 97, GSW 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.59,0.65,0.63,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.72,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.56,0.7,0.78,0.81,0.87,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.93,0.84,0.98,1	94.1%
WAS 86, ORL 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.63,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.74,0.72,0.69,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1	94.0%
SEA 91, HOU 96	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.63,0.57,0.57,0.49,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.71,0.78,0.87,0.91,0.89,0.91,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,0.98,0.95,0.96,1	94.0%