NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	99		Excitement	6.6 [472]		MVP	Keith Van Horn (PHI): +16.9%
Philadelphia 76ers	95		Comeback	1.3 [407]		LVP	Eric Snow (PHI): -46.7%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.14	0.01	0.00	10	79%	0.15	0	0.00	8	87%	0.01
Tim Thomas	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	10	52%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Kevin Ollie	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	70%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ervin Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.03	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Toni Kukoc	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	10	50%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jason Caffey	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	4	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Ray Allen	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.12	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	18	45%	-0.02	3	-0.10	11	100%	0.10
Sam Cassell	-0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14	-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	15	35%	-0.13	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.06

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.10	0.08	0.01	15	67%	0.18	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Brian Skinner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.12	0.01	0.00	9	81%	0.13	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.05	-0.00	4	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron McKie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	10	33%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.06
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Coleman	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	6	33%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Allen Iverson	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.17	-0.03	0.00	18	39%	-0.10	4	-0.10	8	50%	-0.04
Eric Snow	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.47	-0.47	-0.07	-0.40	-0.01	13	56%	-0.30	5	-0.17	6	67%	-0.18

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.9	3.4	24.4	16.6	26.2	1.8	42.2	143.4
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHI -5.6%

MIL +17.7%

MIL +10.7%

MIL +19.1%

MIL +8.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	PHI	NBA	MIL	PHI	NBA
this game	16.1	14.6	15.5	105.3	102.2	101.6
season	15.4	15.3		106.3	102.1
opponent	15.5	15.8		99.9	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	13.2	14.6	16.5	21.1	16.1
PHI	14.5	17.5	14.1	12.5	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Toni Kukoc	62	59	0.72	-0.22	0.93	0.19	18	-14	32	16.5	15.5	0.98	14.9	14.3	0.60
Anthony Mason	70	69	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.31	2	2	0	15.7	17.5	-1.87	14.2	16.0	-1.77
Kevin Ollie	40	40	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.07	10	-6	16	16.4	15.9	0.52	15.0	14.4	0.58
Ray Allen	63	63	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.35	-1	5	-6	16.0	16.4	-0.36	14.0	15.9	-1.90
Tim Thomas	63	64	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.43	-4	8	-12	15.5	17.5	-1.94	14.6	14.8	-0.27
Ervin Johnson	39	38	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.03	7	-3	10	15.9	16.3	-0.34	15.3	14.2	1.18
Michael Redd	46	44	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.08	4	0	4	17.8	14.6	3.20	15.4	13.9	1.49
Sam Cassell	62	61	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.38	-7	11	-18	16.7	15.1	1.60	14.7	14.6	0.08
Jason Caffey	25	27	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	0.08	-9	13	-22	14.0	16.9	-2.87	14.1	14.8	-0.70

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keith Van Horn	55	52	0.28	-0.78	1.06	-0.31	20	-24	44	14.1	15.5	-1.40	18.4	13.4	4.96
John Salmons	7	7	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.04	-5	1	-6	18.3	14.3	3.94	15.6	16.2	-0.62
Derrick Coleman	44	45	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.08	-1	-3	2	14.3	14.9	-0.62	14.1	18.0	-3.91
Eric Snow	79	79	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.42	6	-10	16	14.6	14.8	-0.17	16.3	15.2	1.13
Greg Buckner	26	27	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.04	-10	6	-16	15.5	14.3	1.24	15.9	16.3	-0.36
Allen Iverson	82	83	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.43	3	-7	10	14.6	15.0	-0.40	16.4	14.2	2.23
Aaron McKie	76	77	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.33	-3	-1	-2	14.1	17.1	-3.03	16.2	15.7	0.54
Brian Skinner	61	62	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.20	-13	9	-22	15.3	13.5	1.79	17.0	14.5	2.50
Kenny Thomas	35	38	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.15	-17	13	-30	14.9	14.5	0.34	13.3	18.1	-4.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.45,0.33,0.37,0.3,0.36,0.31,0.29,0.21,0.16,0.12,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.22,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.18,0.17,0.11,0.06,0.13,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.29,0.16,0.16,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 80, CLE 74	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.27,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.25,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.19,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.1,0.19,0.22,0.15,0.11,0.23,0.08,0	93.9%
SAS 119, LAL 113	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.34,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.22,0.2,0.17,0.1,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.2,0.16,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.05,0.06,0.01,0	93.4%
LAC 96, UTA 89	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.34,0.26,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.34,0.3,0.31,0.32,0.19,0.18,0.12,0.09,0.16,0.2,0.24,0.27,0.23,0.22,0.24,0.15,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.12,0.14,0.03,0,0,0	93.2%