NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	92		Excitement	7.9 [260]		MVP	Mark Blount (DEN): +10.1%
Denver Nuggets	81		Comeback	3.0 [549]		LVP	Junior Harrington (DEN): -21.9%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeShawn Stevenson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.04	0.00	3	75%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Greg Ostertag	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	8	59%	0.08	2	-0.08	6	50%	-0.03
Tony Massenburg	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	3	33%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Scott Padgett	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	-0.05	0.01	4	80%	0.03	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Mark Jackson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	5	36%	-0.01	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Andrei Kirilenko	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	4	73%	0.10	3	-0.14	7	100%	0.05
Matt Harpring	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0.01	14	50%	0.07	2	-0.11	6	67%	-0.00
John Stockton	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.00	-0.05	0.02	7	72%	-0.02	3	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Calbert Cheaney	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	7	14%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Karl Malone	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.25,-0.25,-0.21,-0.21	-0.14	-0.06	0.00	13	46%	-0.05	5	-0.15	9	89%	0.04

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.07	0.00	3	75%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
John Crotty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.05	-0.00	4	87%	0.14	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.03	-0.00	15	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	10	60%	-0.06
Donnell Harvey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	1	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Vincent Yarbrough	0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	8	40%	-0.07	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Rodney White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.05	-0.03	9	37%	-0.03	4	-0.10	1	0%	-0.03
Juwan Howard	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.07	-0.09	0.00	13	37%	-0.17	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.06	-0.14	0.00	8	35%	-0.20	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.03
Junior Harrington	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.13	-0.09	0.00	11	27%	-0.12	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.5	30.4	15.7	32.3	2.5	36.3	142.8
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +41.5%

UTA +25.8%

UTA +20.6%

DEN -35.2%

DEN -2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	DEN	NBA	UTA	DEN	NBA
this game	16.5	15.7	15.5	104.5	89.0	101.6
season	16.3	15.7		103.1	90.4
opponent	15.3	15.3		99.4	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	16.2	18.9	16.0	15.3	16.5
DEN	16.5	16.3	14.7	15.3	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrei Kirilenko	45	44	0.79	-0.28	1.07	0.26	18	-7	25	16.9	16.1	0.79	15.2	16.1	-0.95
Matt Harpring	70	75	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.21	9	2	7	16.1	18.2	-2.14	15.8	15.1	0.66
Karl Malone	76	80	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.22	7	4	3	16.0	20.0	-4.03	15.6	15.8	-0.17
John Stockton	54	58	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.18	8	3	5	16.2	17.0	-0.78	17.0	13.4	3.57
Greg Ostertag	59	63	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.33	3	8	-5	16.6	16.4	0.16	16.6	13.7	2.88
Mark Jackson	34	33	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.01	3	8	-5	17.0	16.2	0.78	13.4	17.0	-3.57
Scott Padgett	28	26	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.16	7	4	3	17.5	16.1	1.43	13.8	16.4	-2.66
Tony Massenburg	21	20	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.05	3	8	-5	16.6	16.5	0.13	14.6	16.0	-1.31
Calbert Cheaney	39	40	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.04	1	10	-9	17.4	15.8	1.64	16.5	15.0	1.48
DeShawn Stevenson	14	16	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.04	-4	15	-19	15.6	16.7	-1.13	15.4	15.7	-0.36

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Blount	19	18	0.08	-0.58	0.65	0.05	1	-12	13	15.0	15.8	-0.85	17.7	16.2	1.51
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	27	27	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.01	1	-12	13	14.3	16.3	-2.01	18.7	15.6	3.15
John Crotty	34	35	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.10	-3	-8	5	12.9	17.4	-4.50	15.3	17.4	-2.10
Donnell Harvey	29	28	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.03	-3	-8	5	13.6	16.6	-3.06	16.4	16.6	-0.24
Ryan Bowen	50	48	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.18	-1	-10	9	17.6	13.3	4.24	16.5	16.6	-0.14
Vincent Yarbrough	44	41	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.04	-7	-4	-3	16.8	14.6	2.27	15.6	17.3	-1.66
Rodney White	54	53	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.15	-12	1	-13	14.3	17.7	-3.47	16.6	16.3	0.30
Junior Harrington	57	53	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.28	-8	-3	-5	17.4	12.9	4.50	17.4	15.3	2.10
Juwan Howard	69	67	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.19	-11	0	-11	16.1	14.4	1.66	16.2	17.5	-1.31
Nene	72	70	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.22	-12	1	-13	15.8	15.0	0.85	16.2	17.7	-1.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.53,0.47,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.61,0.45,0.37,0.06,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 118, BOS 117	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.47,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.34,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.28,0.29,0.34,0.28,0.31,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.31,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.27,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.58,0.69,0.59,0.67,0.56,0.29,0.11,0.15,0	93.0%
CLE 92, CHI 85	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.29,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.27,0.29,0.34,0.27,0.36,0.39,0.35,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.29,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.43,0.53,0.47,0.59,0.46,0.2,0.21,0.01,0,0	92.1%
PHI 79, DEN 78	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.39,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.3,0.34,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.26,0.24,0.41,0.37,0.52,0.46,0.34,0.34,0.48,0.53,0.59,0.65,0.61,0.53,0.37,0.09,0.1,0	92.1%