NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	118		Excitement	9.2 [99]		MVP	Voshon Lenard (MIA): +31.1%
Boston Celtics	117		Comeback	2.6 [706]		LVP	Antoine Walker (BOS): -21.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Voshon Lenard	0.31	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.19	0.13	0.01	13	85%	0.32	1	-0.01	7	86%	0.04
John Crotty	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.11	0.03	0.08	0.00	2	100%	0.14	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.04
Ike Austin	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	9	77%	0.13	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.00	10	75%	0.11	3	-0.09	8	62%	-0.07
Ed Pinckney	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Willie Anderson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Askins	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.08	0.02	-0.10	-0.00	18	57%	0.04	3	-0.12	4	50%	-0.03
Sasha Danilovic	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	7	36%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.2,-0.2,-0.16,-0.16	-0.07	-0.08	0.00	8	57%	-0.01	4	-0.15	7	71%	-0.02

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rick Fox	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.24,0.24,0.2,0.23,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.14	0.00	0.01	18	69%	0.19	1	-0.05	12	83%	0.00
Todd Day	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.02	11	60%	0.07	2	-0.04	8	100%	0.05
Brett Szabo	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Wesley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.08	-0.08	0.09	-0.11	0.05	13	67%	-0.02	1	-0.06	1	0%	-0.06
Marty Conlon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.00	0.00	4	40%	0.01	3	-0.09	2	0%	-0.05
Alton Lister	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	0.01	-0.13	0.02	18	56%	-0.08	1	-0.05	12	75%	-0.01
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.22	-0.22	-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	21	39%	-0.13	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	1.8	28.2	15.7	26.2	2.4	37.7	134.5
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +64.7%

MIA +4.0%

MIA +1.4%

BOS -19.4%

BOS -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BOS	NBA	MIA	BOS	NBA
this game	13.9	16.0	15.6	122.9	120.6	104.4
season	15.8	14.8		103.1	101.8
opponent	14.7	16.3		109.5	98.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.0	13.8	16.0	13.1	13.9
BOS	17.0	13.4	17.5	16.4	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Hardaway	79	79	0.87	-0.37	1.25	0.52	12	-11	23	13.2	16.9	-3.65	16.5	13.5	3.02
Alonzo Mourning	76	76	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.40	8	-7	15	13.3	16.0	-2.75	17.2	11.6	5.54
P.J. Brown	54	55	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.39	7	-6	13	13.1	14.8	-1.66	17.0	14.6	2.40
Voshon Lenard	90	90	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.52	-3	4	-7	13.6	17.7	-4.04	15.8	17.6	-1.74
Ike Austin	53	52	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.07	10	-9	19	15.1	12.4	2.64	17.1	14.6	2.53
John Crotty	27	28	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.51	-9	10	-19	14.4	13.7	0.79	14.2	16.7	-2.40
Keith Askins	39	42	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.07	-1	2	-3	14.6	13.4	1.29	17.3	14.9	2.42
Willie Anderson	10	10	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.02	-3	4	-7	11.3	14.2	-2.87	7.8	16.9	-9.10
Mark Strickland	8	9	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.02	-3	4	-7	11.6	14.1	-2.45	7.6	16.8	-9.26
Ed Pinckney	16	16	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.06	-6	7	-13	15.6	13.5	2.02	12.2	16.7	-4.44
Sasha Danilovic	28	28	-0.34	0.84	-1.19	-0.14	-7	8	-15	16.2	12.9	3.30	14.7	16.5	-1.80

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marty Conlon	42	42	0.36	-0.86	1.23	0.07	10	-11	21	15.5	16.3	-0.89	14.6	13.3	1.32
Alton Lister	23	24	0.19	-0.69	0.89	0.02	6	-7	13	16.2	15.9	0.28	16.6	13.0	3.61
Brett Szabo	6	5	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.03	-3	2	-5	19.7	15.7	3.95	9.2	14.1	-4.93
Rick Fox	85	84	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.49	10	-11	21	15.6	18.7	-3.09	13.7	15.1	-1.38
Eric Williams	87	86	-0.52	0.01	-0.53	-0.37	-5	4	-9	15.9	16.4	-0.49	13.9	13.8	0.08
Todd Day	69	68	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.59	-3	2	-5	15.7	16.6	-0.86	13.6	14.6	-0.98
David Wesley	86	86	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.48	-8	7	-15	16.0	15.4	0.67	14.1	12.2	1.87
Antoine Walker	87	85	-0.83	0.33	-1.15	-0.47	-12	11	-23	16.4	11.8	4.64	13.2	19.0	-5.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.47,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.34,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.28,0.29,0.34,0.28,0.31,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.31,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.27,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.58,0.69,0.59,0.67,0.56,0.29,0.11,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 92, DEN 81	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.53,0.47,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.61,0.45,0.37,0.06,0.02,0	93.0%
NJN 91, ORL 85	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.32,0.24,0.28,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.25,0.28,0.27,0.36,0.26,0.38,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.44,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.53,0.53,0.71,0.61,0.53,0.21,0.15,0.04,0	92.3%
LAC 100, POR 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.3,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.37,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.27,0.29,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.52,0.5,0.38,0.6,0.67,0.58,0.74,0.71,0.66,0.46,0.28,0.1,0.05,0	91.9%