NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	86		Excitement	8.5 [182]		MVP	Troy Murphy (GSW): +21.9%
Houston Rockets	84		Comeback	1.6 [248]		LVP	Steve Francis (HOU): -44.2%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Troy Murphy	0.22	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.10	0.12	-0.01	14	66%	0.22	0	0.00	7	100%	0.05
Earl Boykins	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.13,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.08,-0.03,0.12	0.04	0.08	0.00	10	60%	0.17	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	6	69%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Bob Sura	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.02,0.02	-0.04	0.06	0.00	5	50%	0.10	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Mike Dunleavy	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chris Mills	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	7	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Adonal Foyle	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	6	21%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Gilbert Arenas	-0.13	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	11	46%	-0.05	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Antawn Jamison	-0.27	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.27	-0.19	-0.11	-0.03	11	27%	-0.07	6	-0.20	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Yao Ming	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,0.12,0.05	0.05	-0.09	0.13	-0.01	12	38%	0.08	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.01
Maurice Taylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	6	62%	0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Moochie Norris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terence Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelvin Cato	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	10	30%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Glen Rice	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	6	33%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Cuttino Mobley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.14	-0.14	0.05	-0.18	0.01	21	61%	-0.02	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.07	-0.15	0.00	7	31%	-0.17	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Steve Francis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.03,-0.03,-0.34,-0.44	-0.44	-0.14	-0.31	-0.01	19	36%	-0.25	3	-0.19	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.4	23.6	16.4	23.5	2.5	32.2	122.7
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +74.0%

GSW +2.7%

HOU -30.3%

HOU -1.5%

GSW +5.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	HOU	NBA	GSW	HOU	NBA
this game	15.5	16.4	15.5	94.5	93.3	101.6
season	14.6	16.3		105.3	101.7
opponent	15.4	15.1		100.4	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.6	17.0	15.8	15.9	15.5
HOU	14.7	17.2	14.9	19.4	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bob Sura	39	38	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.45	5	-3	8	15.8	15.2	0.58	18.0	15.2	2.83
Troy Murphy	76	76	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.42	5	-3	8	15.0	17.7	-2.72	16.2	17.2	-1.00
Erick Dampier	60	59	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.40	4	-2	6	14.4	17.5	-3.07	15.3	18.4	-3.13
Antawn Jamison	74	73	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.48	-1	3	-4	15.2	16.8	-1.60	16.3	16.6	-0.35
Earl Boykins	33	31	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.47	-2	4	-6	16.5	14.8	1.70	18.7	15.1	3.57
Mike Dunleavy	19	19	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.01	4	-2	6	16.2	15.3	0.95	18.7	15.7	2.94
Gilbert Arenas	61	62	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.00	1	1	0	15.2	15.9	-0.70	15.4	18.6	-3.25
Chris Mills	11	10	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	2	-2	17.5	15.2	2.37	16.2	16.4	-0.19
Adonal Foyle	31	31	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	4	-6	17.5	14.4	3.07	18.4	15.3	3.13
Jason Richardson	51	51	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	-0.06	-4	6	-10	15.2	15.8	-0.69	14.5	18.9	-4.42

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Glen Rice	52	53	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.06	1	-3	4	14.4	19.0	-4.60	15.2	15.8	-0.61
Eddie Griffin	39	40	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	-1	0	14.7	17.6	-2.95	14.1	16.5	-2.34
Terence Morris	7	6	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.04	-3	1	-4	17.3	16.3	1.00	15.3	15.5	-0.14
Moochie Norris	19	21	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.07	1	-3	4	18.7	15.7	2.94	18.3	14.6	3.73
Yao Ming	62	63	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.23	6	-8	14	15.5	18.2	-2.63	15.3	15.7	-0.42
James Posey	41	43	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.36	-1	-1	0	17.3	15.6	1.70	16.3	14.7	1.51
Steve Francis	81	80	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.38	-1	-1	0	15.8	21.4	-5.64	15.0	18.5	-3.51
Kelvin Cato	28	28	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.21	-8	6	-14	18.2	15.5	2.63	15.7	15.3	0.42
Cuttino Mobley	73	74	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.51	1	-3	4	16.8	14.3	2.56	15.2	16.5	-1.31
Maurice Taylor	48	47	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.42	-5	3	-8	18.2	14.3	3.95	16.0	14.9	1.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.39,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.48,0.38,0.43,0.48,0.38,0.27,0.21,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.22,0.24,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 92, MIN 86	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.31,0.28,0.31,0.36,0.37,0.48,0.4,0.45,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.15,0.08,0.15,0.09,0.19,0.45,0.32,0.42,0	91.9%
TOR 103, NYK 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.33,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.33,0.25,0.22,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.29,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.44,0.52,0.38,0.3,0.25,0.21,0.27,0.3,0.29,0.07,0.1,0.16,0.23,0.27,0	91.6%
NJN 93, DAL 92	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.27,0.2,0.19,0.26,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.6,0.52,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.28,0.15,0.1,0.12,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.22,0.15,0	91.5%