NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	89		Excitement	5.5 [692]		MVP	Walter McCarty (BOS): +13.1%
Boston Celtics	96		Comeback	2.2 [862]		LVP	Jason Williams (MEM): -22.5%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lorenzen Wright	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	8	79%	0.11	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Gordan Giricek	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.04	0.04	-0.05	15	47%	0.07	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.00
Shane Battier	0.02	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	9	61%	0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brevin Knight	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Stromile Swift	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	8	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Earl Watson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	12	58%	0.04	4	-0.12	7	86%	0.01
Mike Batiste	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	6	14%	-0.09	1	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03
Jason Williams	-0.23	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.11	-0.09	0.02	17	38%	-0.11	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Walter McCarty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.16	0.01	0.05	7	114%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,0.07,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.01	0.03	-0.07	27	55%	0.20	4	-0.09	6	83%	0.01
Tony Delk	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.04	-0.02	11	50%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shammond Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.07	0.03	-0.05	9	28%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.05	12	42%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Bremer	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vin Baker	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	5	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.12	-0.05	0.00	17	41%	-0.07	4	-0.11	3	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	1.7	24.3	14.7	26.0	2.4	24.6	118.9
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +33.5%

BOS +6.2%

MEM -6.6%

BOS +14.5%

BOS +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	BOS	NBA	MEM	BOS	NBA
this game	14.4	16.4	15.5	94.7	103.2	101.6
season	15.3	15.6		101.8	99.3
opponent	15.5	15.2		99.9	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	15.4	12.7	14.6	15.5	14.4
BOS	15.9	14.5	14.8	21.3	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shane Battier	71	72	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.27	13	-20	33	14.2	15.0	-0.76	16.9	14.5	2.47
Gordan Giricek	67	68	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.31	13	-20	33	14.2	15.1	-0.91	17.2	14.2	2.99
Jason Williams	72	73	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.35	14	-21	35	14.2	15.0	-0.75	16.8	14.8	2.02
Pau Gasol	74	74	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.33	11	-18	29	14.3	14.7	-0.41	16.7	15.2	1.48
Lorenzen Wright	73	74	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.33	11	-18	29	14.2	15.1	-0.86	16.7	15.2	1.48
Stromile Swift	21	19	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	0.03	-18	11	-29	15.1	14.2	0.86	15.2	16.7	-1.48
Mike Batiste	20	19	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	0.03	-18	11	-29	14.7	14.3	0.41	15.2	16.7	-1.48
Brevin Knight	22	20	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	0.05	-21	14	-35	15.0	14.2	0.75	14.8	16.8	-2.02
Earl Watson	27	25	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	0.01	-20	13	-33	15.1	14.2	0.91	14.2	17.2	-2.99
Drew Gooden	23	21	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.02	-20	13	-33	15.0	14.2	0.76	14.5	16.9	-2.47

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Walter McCarty	66	67	0.89	-0.39	1.28	0.16	25	-18	43	16.0	17.3	-1.33	14.8	13.6	1.22
Shammond Williams	48	49	0.74	-0.24	0.99	0.13	21	-14	35	16.8	16.0	0.79	14.9	14.0	0.90
Antoine Walker	82	83	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.33	6	1	5	16.4	16.3	0.13	14.7	12.2	2.54
Paul Pierce	78	78	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.10	5	2	3	15.3	22.3	-7.01	14.9	11.9	3.07
Eric Williams	73	74	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.23	-2	9	-11	17.2	13.5	3.61	13.9	16.2	-2.25
Tony Delk	70	70	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.41	-11	18	-29	17.1	14.3	2.77	13.8	16.2	-2.45
J.R. Bremer	1	2	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.01	3	4	-1	9.0	16.5	-7.47	18.5	14.3	4.16
Vin Baker	47	47	-0.23	0.73	-0.95	0.13	-12	19	-31	16.3	16.5	-0.14	13.6	15.3	-1.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.52,0.74,0.79,0.9,0.92,0.92,0.87,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 81, DEN 99	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.83,0.85,0.92,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	93.2%
VAN 97, HOU 106	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.56,0.58,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.48,0.64,0.81,0.9,0.93,0.91,0.95,0.92,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.93,0.96,1,1	93.2%
GSW 79, WAS 97	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.51,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.42,0.52,0.56,0.69,0.67,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	92.9%