NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	87		Excitement	6.5 [495]		MVP	Clifford Robinson (DET): +10.4%
Washington Wizards	82		Comeback	3.9 [201]		LVP	Michael Jordan (WAS): -18.6%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Clifford Robinson	0.10	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.04	0.03	11	73%	0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.04	0.00	3	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.02	0.00	9	50%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Jon Barry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	6	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Corliss Williamson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	12	50%	0.07	2	-0.08	6	83%	0.03
Mehmet Okur	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	6	29%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Richard Hamilton	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.09,-0.13,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.04	0.01	16	49%	-0.07	1	-0.03	13	77%	0.02
Chauncey Billups	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	6	31%	-0.07	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	1	87%	0.03	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Bryon Russell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	4	40%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Charles Oakley	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	8	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.03,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	14	60%	0.06	3	-0.10	12	92%	0.05
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	-0.08	0.01	9	50%	-0.02	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18	-0.18	-0.15	-0.04	-0.02	10	33%	-0.05	4	-0.13	4	50%	-0.03
Michael Jordan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.22,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.19	-0.19	-0.10	-0.08	-0.00	17	45%	0.02	4	-0.20	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	3.8	30.2	19.4	27.4	3.8	42.2	151.3
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS -3.4%

DET +8.1%

DET +8.7%

DET +32.0%

DET +4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	WAS	NBA	DET	WAS	NBA
this game	18.1	16.8	15.5	106.1	98.8	101.6
season	16.8	16.5		101.7	100.9
opponent	15.5	15.6		101.9	97.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	19.0	17.4	20.4	16.0	18.1
WAS	13.8	17.7	18.5	17.6	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Clifford Robinson	49	49	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.38	4	1	3	17.4	19.1	-1.69	16.4	17.4	-0.97
Ben Wallace	76	77	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.37	4	1	3	18.9	8.3	10.55	17.0	14.0	3.03
Richard Hamilton	51	53	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.07	9	-4	13	18.1	18.1	0.02	16.0	18.2	-2.13
Jon Barry	33	32	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.21	3	2	1	16.5	19.2	-2.77	17.6	16.3	1.33
Corliss Williamson	45	46	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.40	-4	9	-13	18.3	17.8	0.50	17.3	16.2	1.07
Chucky Atkins	31	32	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.28	-1	6	-7	17.8	18.3	-0.49	19.0	15.4	3.62
Chauncey Billups	51	51	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.07	6	-1	7	18.3	17.8	0.49	15.4	19.0	-3.62
Michael Curry	38	38	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.01	5	0	5	18.0	18.2	-0.25	15.9	17.6	-1.68
Mehmet Okur	36	37	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	-0.02	-1	6	-7	18.8	17.6	1.19	17.6	16.2	1.47

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bryon Russell	27	25	0.07	-0.57	0.65	0.01	2	-7	9	17.1	16.7	0.40	17.2	18.5	-1.37
Kwame Brown	38	38	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.13	4	-9	13	18.0	15.8	2.15	17.7	18.5	-0.79
Brendan Haywood	43	43	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.03	-4	-1	-3	16.7	17.0	-0.32	19.5	16.6	2.95
Tyronn Lue	27	28	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.06	-6	1	-7	18.0	16.2	1.71	17.0	18.7	-1.74
Jerry Stackhouse	64	62	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.37	-1	-4	3	16.1	19.3	-3.19	18.6	16.6	2.00
Christian Laettner	69	68	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.32	-3	-2	-1	16.4	18.7	-2.29	18.0	18.9	-0.90
Charles Oakley	13	13	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.34	-3	-2	-1	18.1	16.6	1.51	18.0	18.1	-0.13
Larry Hughes	65	62	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.26	-6	1	-7	16.1	19.5	-3.44	17.9	18.9	-1.05
Michael Jordan	69	71	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.33	-8	3	-11	17.2	14.7	2.52	18.2	17.3	0.97

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.64,0.59,0.59,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.73,0.7,0.7,0.65,0.65,0.55,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.58,0.7,0.57,0.62,0.42,0.59,0.41,0.18,0.25,0.22,0.02,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 99, WAS 88	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.39,0.4,0.43,0.48,0.4,0.46,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.66,0.54,0.56,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.71,0.66,0.7,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.41,0.34,0.28,0.31,0.21,0.06,0.04,0	93.3%
TOR 106, IND 99	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.7,0.73,0.68,0.64,0.61,0.73,0.68,0.72,0.78,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.68,0.78,0.69,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.7,0.53,0.67,0.58,0.47,0.4,0.17,0.14,0.04,0.03,0.01,0	92.0%
MIN 95, LAC 89	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.67,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.73,0.79,0.58,0.47,0.41,0.24,0.34,0.31,0.21,0.15,0.04,0	92.0%