NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	99		Excitement	5.7 [648]		MVP	Tracy McGrady (ORL): +19.4%
Orlando Magic	104		Comeback	1.0 [1006]		LVP	Grant Hill (ORL): -24.3%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chucky Atkins	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.06	0.06	-0.02	8	69%	0.19	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jon Barry	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.02	0.01	8	75%	0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	17	55%	0.02	2	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Clifford Robinson	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.02	9	55%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Curry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mehmet Okur	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	62%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0.02	9	56%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.01	8	39%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Corliss Williamson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06	-0.00	-0.06	0.00	13	57%	-0.04	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.02

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.19	0.19	0.11	0.06	-0.03	26	63%	0.22	1	-0.02	21	86%	0.08
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.08,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.02	0.07	-0.01	6	57%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	8	53%	0.06	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.01
Jeryl Sasser	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Shawn Kemp	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	8	44%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	3	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Pat Burke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	-0.00	13	58%	0.04	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.20	-0.09	-0.05	17	26%	-0.16	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	2.5	31.2	17.8	28.6	2.0	35.2	145.5
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET -1.3%

ORL +26.1%

ORL +23.7%

ORL +1.0%

ORL +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	ORL	NBA	DET	ORL	NBA
this game	14.9	15.4	15.5	104.2	109.5	101.6
season	16.8	14.6		101.7	102.7
opponent	15.8	15.6		103.1	97.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	16.3	14.0	15.0	14.2	14.9
ORL	11.8	16.0	15.6	18.5	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mehmet Okur	25	27	0.14	-0.64	0.77	-0.10	8	-13	21	14.2	15.2	-0.95	16.0	15.1	0.87
Chucky Atkins	42	43	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.19	3	-8	11	14.4	15.4	-0.95	16.0	14.8	1.18
Corliss Williamson	54	54	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.41	8	-13	21	14.0	16.2	-2.26	16.3	14.2	2.04
Jon Barry	53	55	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.49	10	-15	25	14.0	16.1	-2.03	16.9	13.3	3.59
Ben Wallace	67	66	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.09	-6	1	-7	15.6	13.4	2.24	15.7	14.7	1.04
Michael Curry	29	28	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.22	-21	16	-37	17.0	14.0	2.97	11.7	16.9	-5.15
Richard Hamilton	62	60	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.10	-11	6	-17	15.0	14.8	0.18	14.7	16.6	-1.93
Clifford Robinson	74	74	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.23	-9	4	-13	15.1	14.4	0.71	15.5	15.0	0.43
Chauncey Billups	69	68	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.38	-7	2	-9	15.2	14.2	1.08	14.5	17.6	-3.04

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Miller	85	85	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.24	12	-7	19	15.0	19.0	-4.05	15.2	13.1	2.05
Grant Hill	77	77	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.34	7	-2	9	15.3	15.8	-0.56	15.1	14.3	0.81
Pat Garrity	77	78	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.33	6	-1	7	15.4	15.5	-0.15	15.6	12.0	3.58
Tracy McGrady	87	87	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.32	4	1	3	15.2	17.2	-2.04	15.1	12.7	2.39
Darrell Armstrong	53	54	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.27	2	3	-1	15.5	15.2	0.30	14.2	15.9	-1.70
Shawn Kemp	45	47	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.02	10	-5	15	14.9	15.8	-0.97	15.9	14.0	1.81
Pat Burke	15	13	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.08	-5	10	-15	16.3	15.2	1.13	11.7	15.5	-3.76
Jeryl Sasser	13	12	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.08	-5	10	-15	19.5	14.7	4.82	12.2	15.3	-3.17
Andrew DeClercq	23	22	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.09	-6	11	-17	15.8	15.2	0.53	13.8	15.3	-1.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.73,0.7,0.66,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.75,0.67,0.73,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.81,0.78,0.79,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.87,0.81,0.83,0.82,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.87,0.9,0.9,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.63,0.59,0.71,0.73,0.9,0.85,0.96,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 80, ATL 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.72,0.72,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.81,0.85,0.79,0.82,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.86,0.9,0.88,0.92,0.92,0.9,0.88,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.85,0.87,0.8,0.71,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.86,0.89,0.97,0.99,1	94.0%
ATL 81, MIA 94	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.69,0.77,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.86,0.83,0.84,0.86,0.81,0.82,0.87,0.85,0.84,0.79,0.8,0.92,0.87,0.86,0.87,0.87,0.87,0.91,0.86,0.77,0.74,0.71,0.78,0.93,0.96,0.96,1,1	93.8%
MIN 114, NYK 118	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.71,0.77,0.76,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.66,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.84,0.78,0.71,0.84,0.78,0.75,0.81,0.89,0.8,0.86,0.85,0.78,0.88,0.87,0.81,0.75,0.75,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.61,0.85,0.89,0.9,0.99,1	93.5%