NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	97		Excitement	4.1 [970]		MVP	Michael Finley (DAL): +21.9%
Dallas Mavericks	118		Comeback	1.0 [1171]		LVP	Jamaal Tinsley (IND): -11.2%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Harrington	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	10	68%	0.08	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Brad Miller	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	7	58%	0.05	2	-0.03	5	100%	0.04
Austin Croshere	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	0.00	0.05	4	80%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Primoz Brezec	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	3	37%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Reggie Miller	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	8	52%	-0.00	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Jeff Foster	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	1	50%	0.01	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	16	51%	0.03	3	-0.06	7	71%	-0.00
Erick Strickland	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.10	0.00	-0.07	6	43%	-0.01	4	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Ron Mercer	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	10	30%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	8	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Jamaal Tinsley	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.02	10	41%	-0.01	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.09,0.13,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.26	0.02	0.05	21	77%	0.22	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.01	0.00	15	62%	0.10	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.00	-0.03	8	68%	0.08	1	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Steve Nash	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	11	48%	0.02	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	3	100%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adam Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raja Bell	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Popeye Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	4	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.03	0.01	20	47%	0.02	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Walt Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	4	30%	-0.03	1	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Adrian Griffin	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	5	40%	-0.00	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	5	50%	-0.01	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.7	1.8	32.3	15.8	27.6	1.7	24.5	134.4
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +32.6%

IND -4.0%

DAL +2.2%

DAL +14.2%

DAL +5.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	DAL	NBA	IND	DAL	NBA
this game	13.7	16.0	15.5	100.0	121.6	101.6
season	15.4	15.1		102.2	108.6
opponent	15.3	15.5		102.0	99.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	12.8	14.8	14.8	12.3	13.7
DAL	12.4	14.6	15.8	22.5	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Primoz Brezec	12	12	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-25	29	11.5	14.0	-2.55	24.0	14.8	9.18
Jeff Foster	12	14	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.07	2	-23	25	10.4	14.2	-3.78	16.5	15.9	0.63
Austin Croshere	26	27	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.14	-7	-14	7	12.3	14.3	-2.00	21.3	13.9	7.45
Ron Mercer	58	58	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.00	-3	-18	15	12.6	15.5	-2.94	17.1	14.2	2.93
Erick Strickland	47	46	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.12	-11	-10	-1	13.0	14.4	-1.34	18.1	14.0	4.05
Al Harrington	58	57	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.12	-5	-16	11	14.6	12.5	2.08	13.7	19.1	-5.39
Metta World Peace	42	42	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	0.06	-12	-9	-3	14.3	13.3	1.02	13.6	17.8	-4.17
Jamaal Tinsley	66	67	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.06	-8	-13	5	14.0	13.1	0.89	16.4	14.9	1.48
Reggie Miller	59	58	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.22	-21	0	-21	14.3	12.8	1.46	15.3	17.0	-1.70
Jermaine O'Neal	57	57	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	0.12	-18	-3	-15	14.2	13.1	1.12	13.9	18.9	-5.05
Brad Miller	48	47	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	0.28	-26	5	-31	14.9	12.6	2.22	14.6	17.2	-2.56

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Finley	75	76	0.49	0.01	0.48	-0.18	23	-2	25	14.0	22.7	-8.70	14.3	11.8	2.51
Dirk Nowitzki	58	58	0.42	0.08	0.33	-0.29	24	-3	27	14.9	17.5	-2.64	14.3	12.8	1.52
Steve Nash	56	55	0.40	0.10	0.31	-0.06	16	5	11	13.5	19.3	-5.86	14.4	12.9	1.46
Nick Van Exel	63	63	0.30	0.20	0.11	-0.08	13	8	5	15.9	16.0	-0.11	13.7	13.8	-0.14
Shawn Bradley	53	53	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.11	13	8	5	16.3	15.5	0.84	13.5	14.0	-0.53
Raef LaFrentz	34	35	0.24	0.26	-0.03	-0.03	9	12	-3	15.5	16.2	-0.66	14.0	13.6	0.42
Raja Bell	11	11	0.22	0.28	-0.05	-0.10	11	10	1	12.7	16.4	-3.64	17.1	13.3	3.79
Walt Williams	56	56	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.15	-1	22	-23	17.0	14.5	2.55	13.2	14.4	-1.14
Popeye Jones	20	19	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.01	4	17	-13	20.7	14.7	5.97	13.6	13.8	-0.19
Avery Johnson	13	13	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	23	-25	24.7	14.6	10.09	11.3	14.1	-2.80
Adam Harrington	7	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	23	-25	24.6	15.3	9.28	12.8	13.8	-0.96
Adrian Griffin	39	40	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.00	-3	24	-27	17.3	15.1	2.21	11.8	15.1	-3.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.74,0.78,0.68,0.7,0.78,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.73,0.69,0.72,0.77,0.84,0.82,0.79,0.72,0.78,0.76,0.84,0.84,0.88,0.86,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 73, TOR 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.74,0.78,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.8,0.77,0.75,0.74,0.7,0.61,0.71,0.75,0.72,0.78,0.82,0.77,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.9,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%
TOR 99, OKC 119	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.64,0.73,0.75,0.71,0.73,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.73,0.65,0.7,0.77,0.78,0.74,0.77,0.82,0.86,0.86,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.86,0.87,0.88,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%
LAL 78, DET 93	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.72,0.72,0.71,0.72,0.74,0.7,0.69,0.71,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.82,0.79,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.76,0.84,0.88,0.9,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%