NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	121		Excitement	7.3 [339]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +21.3%
Golden State Warriors	116		Comeback	10.4 [242]		LVP	Antawn Jamison (GSW): -12.5%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.21	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.21	0.07	0.15	0.01	19	69%	0.31	4	-0.10	13	92%	0.06
Shawn Bradley	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12	0.05	0.07	-0.01	9	62%	0.12	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Raef LaFrentz	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	7	67%	0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Adrian Griffin	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	7	60%	0.08	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Nick Van Exel	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.03	15	51%	0.09	2	-0.06	7	86%	0.03
Avery Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Raja Bell	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Steve Nash	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	12	54%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.03
Popeye Jones	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Finley	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	12	43%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.14	0.03	0.03	14	71%	0.14	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.09	-0.08	-0.00	13	72%	0.10	2	-0.08	6	83%	0.01
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01	0.01	-0.07	0.04	-0.04	13	45%	0.09	3	-0.08	3	67%	0.03
Danny Fortson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	11	45%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	0.00	2	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	11	38%	-0.07	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Erick Dampier	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.12	-0.04	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03	5	-0.09	4	50%	-0.04
Antawn Jamison	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.13,-0.14,-0.13	-0.13	-0.06	-0.09	-0.02	22	48%	-0.06	2	-0.07	10	70%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	1.6	31.2	15.6	30.0	2.7	34.4	139.4
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +38.5%

DAL +26.9%

GSW -28.5%

DAL +14.4%

GSW -1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	GSW	NBA	DAL	GSW	NBA
this game	13.7	14.8	15.5	119.8	114.9	101.6
season	15.1	14.6		108.6	105.3
opponent	15.1	15.3		106.8	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	13.4	13.7	13.4	14.3	13.7
GSW	15.3	14.0	14.3	15.7	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Van Exel	75	74	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.31	12	-7	19	13.3	14.8	-1.50	15.2	13.8	1.37
Shawn Bradley	67	67	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.41	7	-2	9	14.8	11.6	3.17	15.0	14.4	0.66
Dirk Nowitzki	95	94	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.31	9	-4	13	13.8	11.5	2.33	15.2	10.3	4.87
Adrian Griffin	52	53	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.19	6	-1	7	14.1	13.3	0.79	14.6	15.1	-0.50
Michael Finley	72	70	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.42	-3	8	-11	13.2	14.9	-1.74	14.0	16.6	-2.63
Steve Nash	71	75	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.12	4	1	3	14.2	12.4	1.79	15.0	14.4	0.59
Popeye Jones	9	8	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.07	6	-1	7	13.6	13.7	-0.15	18.5	14.5	3.99
Raja Bell	6	6	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.03	-2	7	-9	5.2	14.2	-9.06	9.7	15.1	-5.48
Avery Johnson	12	11	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.06	-3	8	-11	13.3	13.7	-0.41	15.6	14.7	0.91
Raef LaFrentz	46	47	-0.34	0.84	-1.18	-0.02	-11	16	-27	13.2	14.1	-0.83	14.3	15.3	-0.94

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Fortson	11	11	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.05	4	-9	13	13.1	15.0	-1.94	13.4	13.7	-0.37
Erick Dampier	38	39	0.07	-0.57	0.63	0.09	-1	-4	3	14.7	14.9	-0.22	13.4	13.9	-0.42
Chris Mills	14	14	0.01	-0.51	0.53	0.04	-1	-4	3	16.9	14.5	2.36	11.9	14.0	-2.13
Mike Dunleavy	50	49	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.05	-3	-2	-1	14.7	14.9	-0.16	13.9	13.5	0.48
Jason Richardson	65	67	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.23	-2	-3	1	14.4	15.6	-1.23	13.9	13.4	0.51
Earl Boykins	53	54	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.03	-10	5	-15	14.7	15.0	-0.26	13.7	13.7	0.02
Troy Murphy	81	80	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.41	-1	-4	3	14.8	14.8	-0.04	13.7	13.7	-0.03
Gilbert Arenas	77	75	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.45	0	-5	5	14.7	15.2	-0.51	13.5	14.3	-0.88
Adonal Foyle	29	29	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.28	-7	2	-9	17.3	13.8	3.54	13.9	13.6	0.33
Antawn Jamison	87	87	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.40	-4	-1	-3	14.5	16.9	-2.36	14.0	11.9	2.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.67,0.73,0.63,0.63,0.75,0.76,0.86,0.87,0.8,0.84,0.74,0.86,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.9,0.89,0.81,0.78,0.47,0.46,0.31,0.15,0.06,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 105, PHX 98	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.75,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.83,0.69,0.8,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.9,0.89,0.85,0.74,0.53,0.39,0.32,0.15,0.03,0.02,0	92.3%
NOH 76, HOU 73	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.7,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.92,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.86,0.74,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.47,0.37,0.1,0,0	91.7%
POR 97, NOH 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.68,0.71,0.74,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.71,0.82,0.8,0.85,0.86,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.93,0.94,0.87,0.77,0.64,0.46,0.48,0.33,0.28,0.14,0.04,0	91.2%