NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	94		Excitement	5.5 [679]		MVP	P.J. Brown (NOH): +20.8%
Milwaukee Bucks	88		Comeback	15.2 [35]		LVP	Tim Thomas (MIL): -13.8%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
P.J. Brown	0.21	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21	0.14	0.09	0.02	9	83%	0.21	0	0.00	6	100%	0.05
Elden Campbell	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	7	50%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.02
Jamal Mashburn	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.02	20	48%	0.05	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.07
George Lynch	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	11	62%	0.07	2	-0.06	10	80%	0.02
Stacey Augmon	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
David Wesley	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	0.00	6	62%	0.02	4	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Courtney Alexander	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	5	20%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	-0.00	8	27%	-0.12	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.03

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.07	0.04	8	89%	0.17	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.02,0.06,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.05,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.02	-0.02	21	66%	0.16	6	-0.12	2	100%	0.02
Jason Caffey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.04	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Haislip	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	13	39%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Ollie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.07	0.01	9	55%	-0.03	1	-0.06	4	50%	-0.05
Tim Thomas	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.10	-0.06	15	40%	-0.04	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	1.7	23.6	15.7	23.2	2.4	33.4	122.5
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL -20.4%

NOH +43.9%

NOH +10.3%

NOH +19.8%

MIL -3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	MIL	NBA	NOH	MIL	NBA
this game	17.2	15.9	15.5	108.0	101.1	101.6
season	15.9	15.4		101.6	106.3
opponent	15.8	15.6		106.5	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	18.0	18.8	16.4	15.6	17.2
MIL	15.4	14.0	18.7	15.7	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Courtney Alexander	41	41	0.73	-0.23	0.97	0.32	14	-8	22	15.5	18.7	-3.23	14.9	16.8	-1.86
P.J. Brown	72	72	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.32	10	-4	14	16.8	19.1	-2.26	16.5	12.9	3.59
Baron Davis	82	82	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.34	6	0	6	17.2	17.2	-0.00	16.0	14.6	1.39
Jamal Mashburn	78	77	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.35	5	1	4	17.5	14.4	3.07	16.1	14.2	1.93
Elden Campbell	41	40	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.30	4	2	2	16.3	18.0	-1.75	15.3	16.4	-1.08
Jamaal Magloire	46	47	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.03	2	4	-2	18.0	16.3	1.75	16.4	15.3	1.08
Stacey Augmon	12	12	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.07	3	3	0	14.5	17.6	-3.13	15.1	16.0	-0.96
George Lynch	15	15	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.01	-4	10	-14	19.1	16.8	2.26	12.9	16.5	-3.59
David Wesley	48	49	-0.26	0.76	-1.03	0.03	-10	16	-26	18.8	15.2	3.61	16.4	15.2	1.24

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Haislip	12	12	0.09	-0.59	0.68	0.00	3	-9	12	13.3	16.3	-2.99	20.9	16.6	4.32
Joel Przybilla	34	35	0.07	-0.57	0.65	0.04	1	-7	8	17.3	15.0	2.28	17.3	17.1	0.15
Jason Caffey	33	33	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.12	-3	-3	0	13.9	17.1	-3.27	18.2	16.6	1.59
Anthony Mason	66	66	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.19	-5	-1	-4	16.8	13.2	3.58	16.7	18.7	-2.00
Michael Redd	47	47	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.11	-8	2	-10	14.4	17.7	-3.32	17.0	17.4	-0.33
Ray Allen	71	71	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.32	-1	-5	4	16.2	14.8	1.34	17.8	14.4	3.38
Kevin Ollie	66	67	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.21	-7	1	-8	16.5	14.2	2.26	16.4	19.9	-3.51
Ervin Johnson	38	36	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.33	-5	-1	-4	15.7	16.1	-0.40	17.4	17.0	0.42
Tim Thomas	68	68	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.39	-5	-1	-4	16.2	14.8	1.36	16.6	19.3	-2.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.55,0.64,0.72,0.72,0.74,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.72,0.77,0.71,0.78,0.76,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.92,0.9,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.91,0.93,0.86,0.74,0.81,0.76,0.83,0.74,0.6,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.57,0.47,0.26,0.24,0.27,0.19,0.1,0.06,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 82, BOS 76	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.65,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.77,0.76,0.78,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.88,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.89,0.93,0.88,0.84,0.72,0.66,0.76,0.7,0.72,0.74,0.66,0.71,0.62,0.42,0.31,0.35,0.33,0.25,0.11,0.03,0.02,0	93.8%
LAL 105, MIN 96	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.76,0.8,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.82,0.84,0.84,0.86,0.87,0.84,0.75,0.79,0.8,0.87,0.81,0.79,0.79,0.8,0.88,0.77,0.77,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.57,0.57,0.37,0.31,0.24,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.01,0	92.4%
DAL 102, PHX 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.76,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.73,0.79,0.78,0.87,0.86,0.83,0.86,0.83,0.78,0.82,0.81,0.79,0.83,0.85,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.79,0.76,0.77,0.71,0.66,0.57,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.2,0.17,0.1,0.02,0.01,0,0	92.3%