NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	88		Excitement	2.5 [1221]		MVP	Richard Jefferson (NJN): +7.9%
New Jersey Nets	121		Comeback	1.9 [779]		LVP	Tracy McGrady (ORL): -13.4%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pat Garrity	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Kemp	0.03	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Humphrey	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Horace Grant	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	6	57%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Pat Burke	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.08	0.00	-0.08	7	39%	-0.00	2	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Jeryl Sasser	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	5	29%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	-0.00
Grant Hill	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.07,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0.01	15	57%	0.03	3	-0.06	5	80%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.09	0.00	-0.06	2	0%	-0.01	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	-0.04	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	6	54%	-0.01	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	4	60%	-0.01	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	-0.13	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.16	-0.00	-0.03	20	34%	-0.10	2	-0.03	7	86%	0.02

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.00	-0.01	12	66%	0.08	1	0.00	5	100%	0.01
Tamar Slay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.11	0.01	0.05	9	78%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.14	0.01	0.09	8	94%	0.06	1	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Lucious Harris	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	13	58%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.09	-0.00	0.05	8	79%	0.06	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.06	8	29%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	100%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	5	31%	0.00	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Brian Scalabrine	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.06	0.00	0.06	2	125%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Collins	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	0.03	6	73%	0.03	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	14	36%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	1.8	23.2	14.6	29.6	0.8	27.9	120.2
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NJN +41.2%

NJN +1.6%

NJN +0.3%

NJN +5.6%

NJN +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	NJN	NBA	ORL	NJN	NBA
this game	15.7	15.4	15.5	94.6	131.5	101.6
season	14.6	15.0		102.7	101.1
opponent	15.9	15.8		96.1	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	17.9	15.6	16.0	13.7	15.7
NJN	14.0	15.7	16.0	15.8	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pat Burke	27	27	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.17	-6	-27	21	13.6	16.6	-2.98	15.0	15.6	-0.61
Jacque Vaughn	30	30	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.28	-10	-23	13	13.6	16.8	-3.16	14.6	15.8	-1.17
Ryan Humphrey	35	35	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.20	-9	-24	15	13.9	16.8	-2.93	14.9	15.7	-0.77
Shawn Kemp	33	32	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.14	-8	-25	17	16.9	15.1	1.81	15.7	15.2	0.55
Jeryl Sasser	33	32	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.37	-17	-16	-1	14.0	16.7	-2.70	14.7	15.8	-1.08
Pat Garrity	43	45	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.02	-4	-29	25	17.3	14.4	2.86	16.7	14.1	2.58
Andrew DeClercq	37	36	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.29	-18	-15	-3	14.7	16.4	-1.77	14.8	15.8	-1.01
Tracy McGrady	58	57	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.24	-19	-14	-5	16.6	14.3	2.29	15.6	15.1	0.54
Grant Hill	53	53	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.14	-16	-17	1	16.1	15.3	0.82	16.4	14.0	2.42
Mike Miller	61	60	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.23	-20	-13	-7	16.8	13.7	3.08	15.5	15.1	0.41
Horace Grant	21	21	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.13	-18	-15	-3	18.0	15.1	2.92	14.4	15.7	-1.31
Darrell Armstrong	34	32	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	0.17	-20	-13	-7	15.6	15.8	-0.15	14.5	15.8	-1.32

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richard Jefferson	67	68	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.39	27	6	21	14.7	17.2	-2.43	16.3	14.3	1.94
Rodney Rogers	38	37	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.51	30	3	27	13.5	16.7	-3.27	16.7	15.1	1.55
Tamar Slay	44	45	0.34	0.16	0.17	-0.34	23	10	13	15.3	15.5	-0.23	14.9	16.5	-1.61
Aaron Williams	35	36	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.24	19	14	5	14.8	15.7	-0.91	17.6	14.6	3.00
Jason Kidd	56	57	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.24	17	16	1	15.1	15.9	-0.82	16.6	14.4	2.25
Kenyon Martin	56	57	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.24	17	16	1	15.1	15.9	-0.82	16.6	14.4	2.25
Anthony Johnson	36	36	0.24	0.26	-0.03	-0.23	16	17	-1	15.9	15.1	0.82	14.4	16.6	-2.25
Lucious Harris	48	48	0.16	0.34	-0.17	-0.13	10	23	-13	15.5	15.3	0.23	16.5	14.9	1.61
Jason Collins	49	50	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.02	6	27	-21	16.7	14.0	2.70	14.7	17.0	-2.30
Brandon Armstrong	13	13	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	35	-37	18.7	14.8	3.84	10.0	16.7	-6.68
Brian Scalabrine	18	18	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	31	-29	18.2	14.7	3.45	12.5	16.5	-4.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.71,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.85,0.88,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 98, LAC 119	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.36,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.79,0.78,0.87,0.91,0.9,0.93,0.88,0.9,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.9%
ORL 84, POR 121	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.69,0.71,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.75,0.78,0.87,0.87,0.92,0.96,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.8%
IND 82, DAL 103	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.44,0.4,0.43,0.43,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.63,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.76,0.82,0.85,0.9,0.92,0.92,0.97,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.8%