NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	78		Excitement	3.9 [1010]		MVP	Shawn Kemp (ORL): +8.5%
Orlando Magic	88		Comeback	1.4 [915]		LVP	Michael Jordan (WAS): -19.7%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bryon Russell	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	6	54%	-0.00	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Kwame Brown	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jared Jeffries	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Larry Hughes	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	18	38%	-0.05	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Christian Laettner	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	11	44%	-0.04	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.06	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	17	53%	0.04	4	-0.10	9	78%	0.03
Tyronn Lue	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.12	-0.00	-0.03	3	22%	-0.05	3	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Michael Jordan	-0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.14,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.13	-0.01	0.05	21	36%	-0.13	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shawn Kemp	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.00	0.00	8	75%	0.08	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	18	59%	0.09	2	-0.02	1	100%	-0.00
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Horace Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	5	30%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	8	44%	-0.03	1	0.03	2	100%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Humphrey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	29	45%	-0.00	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Grant Hill	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.15	-0.00	-0.05	8	28%	-0.03	4	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	1.8	24.2	16.4	25.0	1.8	30.3	121.7
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +48.7%

WAS -9.2%

ORL +0.9%

ORL +9.7%

WAS -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	ORL	NBA	WAS	ORL	NBA
this game	16.8	14.6	15.5	84.8	95.7	101.6
season	16.5	14.6		100.9	102.7
opponent	15.8	15.5		103.1	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	15.6	21.7	14.7	15.6	16.8
ORL	12.7	12.0	17.4	16.4	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jared Jeffries	3	4	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.02	-2	-8	6	27.7	16.4	11.28	11.5	14.7	-3.19
Brendan Haywood	43	44	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.05	-3	-7	4	15.7	17.6	-1.89	14.9	14.2	0.68
Kwame Brown	13	13	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.06	-8	-2	-6	17.9	16.6	1.37	12.9	14.8	-1.90
Tyronn Lue	33	32	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.03	-6	-4	-2	16.5	16.9	-0.37	12.9	15.4	-2.48
Bryon Russell	50	48	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.13	-6	-4	-2	16.7	16.8	-0.02	14.4	14.7	-0.24
Jerry Stackhouse	80	79	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.29	-1	-9	8	15.9	22.5	-6.61	15.0	12.1	2.89
Christian Laettner	79	78	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.25	-3	-7	4	16.3	19.6	-3.34	15.1	11.6	3.52
Larry Hughes	88	88	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.18	-9	-1	-8	17.0	11.5	5.49	14.6	14.2	0.32
Michael Jordan	71	74	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.13	-12	2	-14	18.0	12.5	5.48	14.6	14.6	-0.00

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tracy McGrady	79	76	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.16	11	-1	12	14.2	16.5	-2.31	16.7	16.7	0.00
Mike Miller	82	82	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.19	8	2	6	15.0	10.5	4.55	16.3	20.4	-4.10
Pat Garrity	65	63	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.13	9	1	8	14.8	14.0	0.84	16.7	17.0	-0.31
Darrell Armstrong	52	56	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.21	3	7	-4	14.2	15.0	-0.83	16.1	17.7	-1.60
Shawn Kemp	47	45	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.06	8	2	6	15.0	14.1	0.82	16.3	17.2	-0.86
Grant Hill	70	70	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.04	8	2	6	14.4	15.1	-0.76	17.2	15.5	1.70
Ryan Humphrey	15	16	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.01	6	4	2	11.7	15.1	-3.45	19.2	16.2	3.03
Horace Grant	35	37	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.15	-2	12	-14	14.8	14.4	0.44	16.8	16.7	0.01
Jacque Vaughn	5	5	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.03	2	8	-6	14.4	14.6	-0.16	22.0	16.4	5.55
Andrew DeClercq	10	10	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.05	-3	13	-16	16.2	14.4	1.85	17.0	16.7	0.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.41,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.73,0.78,0.72,0.81,0.8,0.78,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.95,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.86,0.88,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.96,0.96,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 88, SAS 110	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.57,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.76,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.82,0.88,0.86,0.9,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.9,0.96,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.92,0.92,0.88,0.86,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%
MIL 85, MIA 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.76,0.8,0.81,0.85,0.84,0.83,0.89,0.88,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.92,0.9,0.83,0.91,0.92,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%
ORL 80, DAL 102	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.76,0.8,0.79,0.76,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.92,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%