NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	93		Excitement	7.2 [361]		MVP	Derrick Coleman (PHI): +27.4%
Philadelphia 76ers	99		Comeback	6.1 [354]		LVP	Antoine Walker (BOS): -33.6%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0.07	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07	0.10	-0.01	0.02	18	68%	0.13	2	-0.06	14	86%	0.04
Tony Battie	0.06	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.04	0.00	2	100%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Tony Delk	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.07	0.04	-0.03	9	36%	0.04	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.03
Vin Baker	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	4	42%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Shammond Williams	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	6	42%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	3	75%	0.02	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Walter McCarty	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.04,-0.04	0.08	-0.11	0.01	5	100%	0.02	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.34	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.24,-0.24,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.26,-0.24,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.13,-0.31,-0.31,-0.34	-0.24	-0.12	-0.03	24	35%	-0.09	6	-0.24	6	67%	-0.01

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Coleman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.14	0.15	0.01	8	91%	0.29	1	-0.01	6	100%	0.03
Eric Snow	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,0.07,0.06	0.06	-0.12	0.13	-0.04	14	42%	0.17	4	-0.11	3	33%	0.01
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	58%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Todd MacCulloch	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	4	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Aaron McKie	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	8	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	-0.01	6	43%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brian Skinner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	13	46%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Allen Iverson	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.02	0.02	22	49%	0.02	3	-0.12	11	64%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	2.0	32.0	15.5	23.5	2.6	34.3	135.5
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHI +25.1%

BOS -14.1%

PHI +27.0%

PHI +10.2%

PHI +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	PHI	NBA	BOS	PHI	NBA
this game	14.3	15.5	15.5	95.9	103.1	101.6
season	15.6	15.3		99.3	102.1
opponent	15.5	15.5		99.9	99.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	12.7	14.3	16.1	14.4	14.3
PHI	14.5	14.5	15.2	18.5	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shammond Williams	40	38	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.07	5	-11	16	12.9	15.3	-2.31	16.3	15.0	1.28
Paul Pierce	75	74	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.32	4	-10	14	14.4	14.1	0.22	15.9	14.5	1.41
Vin Baker	30	28	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.00	-7	1	-8	13.7	14.6	-0.83	14.4	16.0	-1.62
Antoine Walker	88	86	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.37	4	-10	14	14.1	16.6	-2.48	15.7	14.5	1.16
Tony Battie	67	68	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.32	1	-7	8	14.6	13.7	0.83	16.0	14.4	1.62
Eric Williams	48	52	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.02	-10	4	-14	15.3	13.3	1.94	14.4	16.9	-2.44
Walter McCarty	64	60	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.21	-12	6	-18	14.1	14.8	-0.73	15.9	14.9	1.00
Tony Delk	73	74	-0.75	0.25	-1.01	-0.31	-15	9	-24	14.8	12.7	2.18	15.2	16.8	-1.66

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick Coleman	49	50	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.25	17	-11	28	15.0	16.1	-1.19	13.8	14.8	-1.01
Aaron McKie	71	69	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.46	5	1	4	16.1	14.0	2.03	14.6	13.7	0.84
Allen Iverson	87	87	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.32	5	1	4	15.7	14.1	1.58	14.5	12.7	1.79
Eric Snow	72	71	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.27	6	0	6	15.2	16.7	-1.50	15.0	12.3	2.73
Brian Skinner	36	37	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.07	13	-7	20	14.1	16.4	-2.33	13.6	14.7	-1.11
Keith Van Horn	61	62	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.36	-5	11	-16	16.0	14.7	1.35	14.7	13.7	0.98
Greg Buckner	36	39	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	-0.03	-1	7	-8	16.6	14.9	1.67	13.1	15.2	-2.10
Monty Williams	27	30	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	-0.07	-1	7	-8	14.6	15.9	-1.27	13.2	14.8	-1.65
Todd MacCulloch	41	40	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.13	-9	15	-24	15.9	15.3	0.63	15.0	13.8	1.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.32,0.33,0.28,0.32,0.25,0.29,0.17,0.18,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.39,0.48,0.41,0.45,0.34,0.44,0.44,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.47,0.3,0.4,0.32,0.29,0.57,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 87, IND 89	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.27,0.29,0.31,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.36,0.3,0.25,0.3,0.29,0.23,0.28,0.3,0.39,0.32,0.25,0.34,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.57,0.63,0.41,0.35,0.46,0.31,0.37,0.33,0.82,1	92.0%
HOU 95, NYK 102	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.28,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.26,0.28,0.29,0.25,0.24,0.26,0.23,0.24,0.19,0.23,0.22,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.45,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.45,0.38,0.46,0.44,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.38,0.32,0.31,0.35,0.39,0.32,0.36,0.32,0.85,1	91.6%
NYK 74, LAC 78	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.33,0.38,0.48,0.41,0.31,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.57,0.38,0.42,0.31,0.41,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.57,0.91,1	90.5%