NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	85		Excitement	4.5 [910]		MVP	Tony Parker (SAS): +8.2%
San Antonio Spurs	107		Comeback	2.5 [724]		LVP	Karl Malone (UTA): -27.6%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Jackson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	6	58%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Stockton	0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.01	6	81%	0.07	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Greg Ostertag	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.02	4	64%	0.01	1	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Carlos Arroyo	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	4	60%	0.00	1	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jarron Collins	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	-0.01	0.03	7	63%	-0.00	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Scott Padgett	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.03	6	62%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.09	-0.01	-0.08	5	17%	-0.02	1	0.00	2	100%	0.01
John Amaechi	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andrei Kirilenko	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	4	44%	-0.04	1	-0.02	8	62%	-0.01
Matt Harpring	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	10	45%	-0.04	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Calbert Cheaney	-0.12	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.04	-0.02	7	14%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Karl Malone	-0.28	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.25,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28	-0.26	-0.06	-0.05	16	18%	-0.24	2	-0.03	7	71%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	8	72%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	0.01	0.02	9	71%	0.07	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Steve Kerr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	0.00	0.02	4	110%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	-0.00	3	75%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	0.02	0.05	14	59%	0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	6	65%	0.01	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.02
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Goldwire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	3	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	1	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	16	41%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	7	53%	-0.03	3	-0.05	5	40%	-0.04
Bruce Bowen	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	6	25%	-0.10	0	0.00	4	0%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	2.4	32.4	16.6	32.2	2.0	27.3	136.7
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +59.5%

UTA -15.9%

UTA -0.7%

SAS +8.2%

UTA -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	SAS	NBA	UTA	SAS	NBA
this game	16.4	14.4	15.5	90.4	115.1	101.6
season	16.3	15.7		103.1	102.5
opponent	15.4	15.3		96.9	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	14.8	17.8	15.4	17.6	16.4
SAS	15.8	14.1	12.8	15.1	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carlos Arroyo	16	15	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-22	22	15.7	16.5	-0.80	16.5	14.0	2.49
Greg Ostertag	58	58	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.04	-3	-19	16	15.9	17.1	-1.28	14.7	14.1	0.57
John Amaechi	16	16	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.00	-2	-20	18	14.7	16.7	-1.93	14.9	14.3	0.60
Matt Harpring	48	49	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.12	0	-22	22	14.9	17.8	-2.89	14.7	14.2	0.53
Scott Padgett	39	39	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.20	-12	-10	-2	17.0	15.9	1.11	14.2	14.6	-0.49
DeShawn Stevenson	35	34	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.22	-13	-9	-4	17.0	15.9	1.08	14.1	14.6	-0.56
John Stockton	41	41	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.08	-5	-17	12	15.0	17.4	-2.35	15.6	13.5	2.05
Mark Jackson	37	37	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.23	-17	-5	-12	18.1	15.2	2.90	12.3	15.8	-3.51
Andrei Kirilenko	45	44	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.07	-12	-10	-2	16.4	16.3	0.05	13.1	15.6	-2.52
Karl Malone	61	61	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.07	-15	-7	-8	16.6	16.0	0.59	14.4	14.6	-0.23
Jarron Collins	36	34	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.11	-17	-5	-12	17.6	15.6	1.95	14.8	14.3	0.51
Calbert Cheaney	38	37	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.00	-14	-8	-6	16.8	16.1	0.69	15.6	13.7	1.92

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Rose	44	44	0.53	-0.03	0.55	-0.27	27	-5	32	13.6	15.2	-1.61	17.9	15.0	2.93
Tony Parker	50	50	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.02	11	11	0	14.8	14.0	0.73	15.2	17.7	-2.50
Danny Ferry	36	37	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.21	18	4	14	14.4	14.5	-0.08	18.9	14.7	4.23
David Robinson	51	52	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.05	9	13	-4	14.7	14.1	0.67	15.1	17.9	-2.81
Stephen Jackson	50	49	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.41	24	-2	26	13.7	15.3	-1.69	17.4	15.2	2.17
Tim Duncan	48	48	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.02	9	13	-4	14.5	14.3	0.21	16.5	16.2	0.22
Bruce Bowen	34	35	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.14	2	20	-18	15.1	14.0	1.11	14.9	17.2	-2.38
Steven Smith	57	57	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.07	4	18	-14	14.5	14.4	0.08	14.7	18.9	-4.23
Steve Kerr	30	31	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.22	13	9	4	12.9	15.2	-2.32	18.5	15.3	3.13
Manu Ginobili	13	13	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	24	-26	16.8	14.1	2.71	15.8	16.4	-0.59
Anthony Goldwire	13	13	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	24	-26	16.8	14.1	2.71	15.8	16.4	-0.59
Kevin Willis	39	41	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.01	-3	25	-28	14.5	14.4	0.08	16.3	16.4	-0.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.51,0.56,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.83,0.81,0.9,0.92,0.92,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 94, LAC 116	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.5,0.43,0.37,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.53,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.62,0.69,0.72,0.81,0.76,0.79,0.78,0.75,0.87,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%
MIL 77, MIN 95	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.59,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.79,0.79,0.81,0.79,0.89,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
PHI 78, DET 115	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.77,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.94,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%