NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	91		Excitement	6.4 [513]		MVP	Jon Barry (DET): +15.2%
Detroit Pistons	96		Comeback	1.2 [1044]		LVP	Chucky Atkins (DET): -18.1%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Gadzuric	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	0.01	6	71%	0.07	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Ervin Johnson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	3	78%	0.04	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Kevin Ollie	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	7	56%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Michael Redd	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0	0.04	-0.03	0.01	10	55%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.05,-0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.01	24	49%	0.06	2	-0.06	7	43%	-0.04
Jason Caffey	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	6	31%	-0.06	1	-0.01	4	25%	-0.04
Toni Kukoc	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.02	10	37%	-0.02	3	-0.10	4	50%	-0.03
Tim Thomas	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16	-0.06	-0.11	-0.00	15	37%	-0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.11	-0.06	0.00	6	0%	-0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.06	-0.00	3	125%	0.17	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.05	-0.03	16	56%	0.12	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.03
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.09	0.09	0.00	0.09	0.00	11	55%	0.14	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.00	0.01	6	81%	0.07	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	11	50%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Zeljko Rebraca	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	75%	0.08	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Hubert Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	8	60%	0.04	3	-0.07	4	50%	-0.01
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.16	-0.04	-0.02	13	28%	-0.09	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.6	25.3	16.4	24.6	2.4	32.7	127.4
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +61.1%

DET +12.9%

MIL -15.6%

MIL -10.6%

DET +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	DET	NBA	MIL	DET	NBA
this game	15.9	16.7	15.5	103.4	107.9	101.6
season	15.4	16.8		106.3	101.7
opponent	15.6	15.8		97.8	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.5	19.0	12.0	18.0	15.9
DET	14.5	17.9	18.0	16.3	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ervin Johnson	11	12	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.02	-1	-4	3	21.5	15.1	6.47	22.7	15.7	6.95
Kevin Ollie	38	38	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.14	1	-6	7	17.1	15.0	2.05	19.8	14.3	5.43
Dan Gadzuric	60	60	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.20	2	-7	9	14.4	19.0	-4.51	15.7	18.6	-2.82
Jason Caffey	37	39	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.08	-4	-1	-3	13.8	17.4	-3.58	15.6	17.5	-1.94
Tim Thomas	61	61	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.32	3	-8	11	15.1	17.6	-2.41	16.7	16.5	0.27
Toni Kukoc	46	46	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.18	-4	-1	-3	17.5	14.2	3.29	17.4	15.8	1.62
Sam Cassell	72	73	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.24	-4	-1	-3	14.5	22.1	-7.62	15.7	20.9	-5.15
Anthony Mason	46	46	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.25	-9	4	-13	18.2	13.3	4.88	17.1	16.2	0.90
Michael Redd	69	70	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.34	-9	4	-13	16.2	14.7	1.47	15.4	21.2	-5.80

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jon Barry	21	22	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.31	9	-4	13	17.7	16.3	1.33	21.5	14.0	7.42
Chucky Atkins	68	70	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.19	8	-3	11	15.6	20.0	-4.32	15.0	19.4	-4.40
Clifford Robinson	72	71	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.33	2	3	-1	16.0	19.4	-3.41	15.1	19.0	-3.86
Zeljko Rebraca	29	30	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.14	6	-1	7	19.1	15.4	3.69	18.7	14.4	4.22
Ben Wallace	77	75	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.24	2	3	-1	16.3	18.7	-2.43	15.5	18.2	-2.75
Richard Hamilton	70	68	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.19	0	5	-5	15.9	19.4	-3.52	14.4	21.1	-6.75
Corliss Williamson	45	44	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.17	0	5	-5	17.8	15.4	2.41	17.3	14.5	2.86
Hubert Davis	21	18	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.15	-3	8	-11	20.0	15.6	4.32	19.4	15.0	4.40
Tayshaun Prince	42	42	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.03	1	4	-3	16.1	17.1	-1.01	14.0	17.7	-3.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.61,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.71,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.63,0.77,0.78,0.83,0.86,0.91,0.91,0.84,0.8,0.67,0.6,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.83,0.73,0.83,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.93,0.94,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 109, LAC 113	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.74,0.74,0.74,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.78,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.75,0.77,0.69,0.72,0.76,0.79,0.8,0.8,0.81,0.8,0.71,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.79,0.83,0.85,0.79,0.89,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.78,0.58,1	93.1%
BKN 101, LAL 107	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.51,0.57,0.49,0.56,0.5,0.6,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.78,0.8,0.77,0.89,0.84,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.84,0.91,1	92.6%
MIN 92, POR 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.61,0.64,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.59,0.62,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.7,0.74,0.84,0.87,0.92,0.86,0.89,0.92,0.85,0.83,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.78,0.86,0.83,0.77,0.78,0.84,0.95,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.85,1	92.6%