NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	93		Excitement	8.3 [211]		MVP	Yao Ming (HOU): +29.0%
Los Angeles Lakers	89		Comeback	3.7 [222]		LVP	Brian Shaw (LAL): -21.2%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Yao Ming	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.29,0.29	0.12	0.17	0.00	9	100%	0.38	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.02
Maurice Taylor	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.08,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14	0.03	0.09	-0.02	9	57%	0.14	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Steve Francis	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.13,0.15,0.12,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.04	0.01	20	52%	0.03	1	-0.02	12	92%	0.06
Juaquin Hawkins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Griffin	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	7	56%	0.00	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Moochie Norris	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cuttino Mobley	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	13	44%	-0.03	2	-0.06	8	75%	0.04
Kenny Thomas	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.01	7	43%	0.01	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Glen Rice	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	0.01	6	17%	-0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.17	0.17	0.05	0.13	0.01	15	57%	0.20	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tracy Murray	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Slava Medvedenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	5	40%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	7	50%	-0.00	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.02,0.18,-0.06	-0.06	0.03	-0.09	0.00	37	54%	0.01	3	-0.07	11	82%	0.03
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	3	12%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Rick Fox	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	0.01	9	45%	-0.04	2	-0.07	2	0%	-0.03
Kareem Rush	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.05	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Brian Shaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.05	-0.16	0.00	8	25%	-0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	2.4	28.4	16.8	23.1	2.8	39.0	138.5
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +43.5%

HOU +33.9%

LAL -0.2%

LAL -27.2%

LAL -0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	LAL	NBA	HOU	LAL	NBA
this game	15.4	15.4	15.5	100.0	94.7	101.6
season	16.3	15.4		101.7	105.0
opponent	15.1	15.4		102.8	100.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	13.5	16.6	18.2	13.7	15.4
LAL	15.8	14.0	16.0	15.6	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Juaquin Hawkins	44	45	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.45	6	-2	8	15.1	15.7	-0.54	15.3	15.5	-0.18
Steve Francis	85	86	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.35	8	-4	12	15.4	15.6	-0.22	15.2	16.9	-1.63
Maurice Taylor	46	47	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.46	3	1	2	14.9	15.9	-1.00	15.3	15.4	-0.13
Cuttino Mobley	86	88	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.38	2	2	0	15.0	20.1	-5.11	15.5	13.5	2.01
Yao Ming	44	43	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.35	1	3	-2	16.1	14.8	1.27	15.7	15.1	0.67
Moochie Norris	17	15	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.07	0	4	-4	15.9	15.3	0.57	14.6	15.5	-0.93
Kenny Thomas	53	55	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.04	1	3	-2	15.2	15.8	-0.62	14.9	16.1	-1.19
Eddie Griffin	43	43	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	1	2	15.6	15.3	0.34	15.7	15.1	0.62
Glen Rice	47	48	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.10	-4	8	-12	16.3	14.6	1.69	15.7	15.0	0.71

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kobe Bryant	87	87	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.27	5	-9	14	15.1	19.4	-4.37	15.7	10.8	4.90
Kareem Rush	19	21	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.10	-2	-2	0	14.5	15.6	-1.07	16.0	15.3	0.69
Samaki Walker	61	61	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.29	3	-7	10	15.9	14.4	1.48	16.2	13.9	2.26
Slava Medvedenko	36	35	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.00	-7	3	-10	15.5	15.3	0.23	15.5	15.4	0.11
Rick Fox	74	71	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.14	-3	-1	-2	15.5	14.8	0.68	15.1	16.6	-1.53
Robert Horry	57	58	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.23	-1	-3	2	15.1	15.9	-0.84	15.7	15.0	0.72
Derek Fisher	76	73	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.27	-2	-2	0	15.4	15.3	0.06	15.2	16.2	-0.99
Tracy Murray	12	11	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.13	-7	3	-10	18.7	14.9	3.86	10.9	16.0	-5.12
Brian Shaw	48	48	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.49	-6	2	-8	14.9	15.9	-1.08	15.1	15.7	-0.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.39,0.44,0.47,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.64,0.75,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.7,0.72,0.48,0.29,0.15,0.22,0.2,0.33,0.19,0.16,0.11,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 119, SAC 113	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.42,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.59,0.67,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.74,0.6,0.66,0.62,0.38,0.28,0.23,0.27,0.29,0.22,0.14,0.21,0.22,0.04,0	92.5%
MIA 103, WAS 98	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.58,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.38,0.23,0.13,0.12,0.34,0.11,0.02,0,0,0	92.4%
NJN 99, NYK 94	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.77,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.6,0.56,0.66,0.7,0.57,0.38,0.32,0.31,0.2,0.13,0.15,0.22,0.05,0.04,0	92.2%