NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	119		Excitement	8.1 [187]		MVP	Hedo Turkoglu (SAC): +30.4%
Sacramento Kings	113		Comeback	2.9 [251]		LVP	Chris Webber (SAC): -26.6%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kobe Bryant	0.24	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.1,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.13,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.24,0.24	0.11	0.12	-0.01	29	62%	0.29	2	-0.05	19	89%	0.04
Robert Horry	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.12	0.04	0.08	0.00	4	92%	0.16	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0.09	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.10	-0.00	0.01	10	77%	0.12	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.02
Brian Shaw	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	5	50%	0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mark Madsen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ron Harper	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rick Fox	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	7	43%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	16	56%	0.02	5	-0.11	13	54%	-0.09
Horace Grant	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	7	25%	-0.06	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.31,0.35,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.22	0.10	0.01	10	100%	0.30	0	0.00	2	100%	0.04
Vlade Divac	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	9	64%	0.08	1	-0.04	10	100%	0.10
Doug Christie	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.02	0.01	9	71%	0.10	1	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	14	70%	0.19	5	-0.16	9	100%	0.08
Scot Pollard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Lawrence Funderburke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	5	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	5	30%	-0.03	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chris Webber	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.1,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.2,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.21,-0.24,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.27	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.01	25	37%	-0.11	6	-0.16	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.9	2.0	34.2	21.3	28.7	4.3	48.6	167.0
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +33.4%

SAC -16.7%

LAL +20.3%

LAL +12.0%

LAL +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	SAC	NBA	LAL	SAC	NBA
this game	16.4	13.6	15.5	125.3	116.5	100.9
season	15.6	14.4		106.8	103.1
opponent	15.5	15.2		97.8	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	15.1	17.2	17.6	15.9	16.4
SAC	13.7	12.8	13.2	14.8	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Horry	46	48	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.46	4	2	2	16.5	16.4	0.09	13.3	13.9	-0.61
Kobe Bryant	95	97	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.32	6	0	6	16.4	0.0	16.41	13.6	0.0	13.62
Ron Harper	11	12	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.33	5	1	4	12.1	17.0	-4.89	11.6	13.9	-2.32
Rick Fox	77	80	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.20	5	1	4	16.9	14.3	2.56	14.1	11.4	2.68
Brian Shaw	34	34	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.25	-1	7	-8	17.1	16.0	1.01	13.9	13.5	0.45
Shaquille O'Neal	72	73	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.06	5	1	4	17.2	14.0	3.18	14.7	10.3	4.37
Horace Grant	71	71	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.11	3	3	0	15.8	18.1	-2.29	13.0	15.3	-2.31
Mark Madsen	0	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	6	-6	0.0	16.4	-16.41	6.0	13.7	-7.70
Derek Fisher	69	69	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.12	3	3	0	16.0	17.5	-1.50	13.1	14.9	-1.79

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Scot Pollard	17	19	0.08	-0.58	0.67	0.02	2	-8	10	15.0	13.3	1.67	17.6	16.1	1.46
Peja Stojakovic	85	83	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.19	8	-14	22	13.1	17.4	-4.33	16.0	18.9	-2.87
Vlade Divac	68	65	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.27	6	-12	18	13.3	14.4	-1.09	16.6	15.9	0.70
Jason Williams	38	38	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.03	-5	-1	-4	13.6	13.7	-0.11	15.8	16.8	-0.99
Bobby Jackson	38	38	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.09	-10	4	-14	14.2	13.3	0.93	16.7	16.2	0.54
Lawrence Funderburke	8	7	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.12	-11	5	-16	17.4	13.3	4.09	19.9	16.1	3.72
Chris Webber	93	92	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.31	-5	-1	-4	13.8	10.2	3.51	16.1	24.7	-8.53
Hedo Turkoglu	44	42	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.43	-2	-4	2	13.4	13.8	-0.38	17.0	15.9	1.06
Doug Christie	94	91	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.27	-13	7	-20	13.5	16.7	-3.15	16.2	21.5	-5.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.42,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.59,0.67,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.74,0.6,0.66,0.62,0.38,0.28,0.23,0.27,0.29,0.22,0.14,0.21,0.22,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 93, LAL 89	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.39,0.44,0.47,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.64,0.75,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.7,0.72,0.48,0.29,0.15,0.22,0.2,0.33,0.19,0.16,0.11,0.08,0	92.5%
NJN 99, NYK 94	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.77,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.6,0.56,0.66,0.7,0.57,0.38,0.32,0.31,0.2,0.13,0.15,0.22,0.05,0.04,0	92.0%
LAC 100, DEN 89	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.33,0.31,0.32,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.67,0.7,0.77,0.72,0.8,0.7,0.67,0.58,0.67,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.56,0.54,0.44,0.34,0.36,0.37,0.45,0.41,0.34,0.14,0.11,0.11,0,0	92.0%