NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	101		Excitement	5.7 [638]		MVP	Michael Redd (MIL): +15.7%
Milwaukee Bucks	108		Comeback	1.7 [923]		LVP	Jalen Rose (CHI): -18.6%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donyell Marshall	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.02	10	73%	0.10	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.02
Tyson Chandler	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.11	0.00	0.04	5	100%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Eddie Robinson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fred Hoiberg	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jay Williams	-0.04	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	-0.02	0.03	14	62%	0.04	4	-0.09	4	75%	-0.02
Trenton Hassell	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Crawford	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.10	-0.00	-0.02	3	33%	0.00	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Lonny Baxter	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.01	-0.05	0.02	9	58%	0.05	2	-0.13	6	67%	-0.01
Eddy Curry	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.00	0.02	10	36%	-0.07	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Jalen Rose	-0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.01,-0.12,-0.18,-0.12,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.09	-0.09	0.01	20	46%	-0.10	2	-0.08	12	92%	0.02

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.17	0.02	0.03	13	77%	0.16	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.02	0.03	-0.04	12	48%	0.06	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.01
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.14	0.11	-0.08	11	23%	0.09	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Ollie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	-0.00	-0.01	11	61%	0.06	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01
Ray Allen	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.05,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	-0.05	-0.01	13	59%	0.02	0	0.00	6	67%	0.03
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	7	56%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	11	48%	-0.00	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.02
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	9	48%	0.06	4	-0.13	3	67%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	1.4	25.5	15.7	24.1	2.4	35.7	128.9
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +44.0%

CHI -3.4%

CHI -8.5%

MIL +14.3%

MIL +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIL	NBA	CHI	MIL	NBA
this game	14.4	15.6	15.5	105.2	112.5	101.6
season	15.0	15.4		98.3	106.3
opponent	15.8	15.1		106.5	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	13.6	18.4	13.5	12.6	14.4
MIL	13.6	13.7	19.3	16.2	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Crawford	18	16	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.01	-1	-6	5	15.2	14.2	0.96	16.6	15.4	1.14
Lonny Baxter	47	47	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.23	3	-10	13	13.1	15.7	-2.59	16.2	15.1	1.09
Tyson Chandler	42	42	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.11	-2	-5	3	15.3	13.6	1.69	16.4	15.0	1.45
Eddie Robinson	10	11	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.06	-8	1	-9	16.2	14.2	2.03	15.9	15.6	0.33
Fred Hoiberg	32	30	-0.23	-0.28	0.05	-0.02	-7	0	-7	15.1	14.0	1.06	16.2	15.4	0.80
Trenton Hassell	60	62	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.25	0	-7	7	14.2	14.7	-0.58	15.2	16.4	-1.28
Donyell Marshall	70	71	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.25	-3	-4	1	13.7	16.3	-2.58	15.6	15.6	-0.03
Jalen Rose	90	89	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.37	1	-8	9	14.1	19.0	-4.92	15.7	14.4	1.28
Eddy Curry	33	32	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.00	-12	5	-17	16.5	13.3	3.29	13.7	16.5	-2.80
Jay Williams	78	80	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.29	-6	-1	-5	14.2	15.2	-0.96	15.4	16.6	-1.14

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Thomas	68	68	0.72	-0.22	0.95	0.28	15	-8	23	15.2	16.5	-1.25	14.9	13.1	1.80
Toni Kukoc	70	69	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.08	18	-11	29	15.1	16.9	-1.74	14.4	14.2	0.23
Michael Redd	56	56	0.29	0.20	0.09	-0.12	14	-7	21	15.7	15.5	0.15	15.1	13.3	1.78
Anthony Mason	73	71	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.24	1	6	-5	15.7	15.3	0.35	14.1	15.2	-1.05
Kevin Ollie	40	40	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.18	15	-8	23	15.4	15.7	-0.28	15.4	13.6	1.82
Sam Cassell	56	56	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.47	-8	15	-23	15.7	15.4	0.28	13.6	15.4	-1.82
Ervin Johnson	25	27	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.06	5	2	3	15.7	15.6	0.09	14.7	14.3	0.39
Dan Gadzuric	27	27	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.14	-6	13	-19	15.9	15.5	0.43	15.0	14.1	0.91
Ray Allen	65	66	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.48	-19	26	-45	16.2	14.4	1.81	13.1	17.3	-4.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.73,0.81,0.9,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.93,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.9,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.93,0.85,0.83,0.6,0.61,0.55,0.78,0.97,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 101, CHH 115	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.72,0.79,0.85,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.92,0.95,0.93,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.96,0.91,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.91,0.9,0.88,0.9,0.8,0.83,0.85,0.98,0.99,0.99,1	91.6%
PHI 77, WAS 90	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.73,0.79,0.82,0.84,0.88,0.88,0.86,0.85,0.89,0.92,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.94,0.91,0.87,0.92,0.92,0.91,0.92,0.85,0.83,0.71,0.73,0.52,0.55,0.76,0.98,1	91.4%
CLE 90, ATL 108	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.41,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.35,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.7,0.8,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.93,0.91,0.88,0.95,0.91,0.9,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.92,0.91,0.88,0.84,0.76,0.83,0.92,0.99,1,1,1	91.3%