NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	82		Excitement	6.5 [485]		MVP	Richard Jefferson (NJN): +8.6%
New Jersey Nets	91		Comeback	2.1 [654]		LVP	Tony Parker (SAS): -27.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Jackson	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.01	0.02	14	62%	0.07	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Steve Kerr	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	56%	0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Devin Brown	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	2	75%	0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	3	50%	-0.01	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Bruce Bowen	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	6	25%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.01	0.01	10	27%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.15	0.03	0.01	19	44%	-0.03	4	-0.10	10	50%	-0.05
Malik Rose	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.05	-0.01	6	38%	-0.04	4	-0.11	1	100%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.28	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28	-0.13	-0.11	0.03	13	50%	-0.05	7	-0.23	4	100%	0.02

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.05	0.02	15	71%	0.19	4	-0.10	8	87%	0.03
Kerry Kittles	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	0.01	6	69%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Lucious Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.06	0.02	10	58%	0.08	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Jason Collins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	7	29%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.12	0.01	-0.04	10	35%	-0.02	3	-0.05	3	67%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	7	37%	-0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.03	0.01	5	29%	-0.08	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18	-0.18	-0.15	-0.05	-0.03	16	50%	0.06	8	-0.24	4	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.1	1.0	32.0	17.5	26.9	2.0	29.2	136.8
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NJN +27.4%

NJN +15.0%

NJN +7.3%

SAS -2.7%

NJN +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	NJN	NBA	SAS	NJN	NBA
this game	16.9	13.7	15.5	88.2	95.8	101.6
season	15.7	15.0		102.5	101.1
opponent	15.9	15.4		96.1	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.2	15.9	18.6	17.2	16.9
NJN	14.5	12.9	12.7	14.8	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devin Brown	1	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-8	7	9.0	17.0	-8.02	17.5	13.7	3.84
Kevin Willis	1	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-8	7	9.0	17.0	-8.02	17.5	13.7	3.84
Steve Kerr	24	27	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.05	1	-10	11	13.7	18.0	-4.29	12.3	14.3	-2.01
Danny Ferry	28	27	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.17	2	-11	13	17.1	16.8	0.30	13.3	13.9	-0.67
David Robinson	59	59	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.10	-2	-7	5	17.4	16.1	1.34	14.5	12.5	1.95
Bruce Bowen	58	59	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.11	-5	-4	-1	17.9	15.3	2.65	14.5	12.6	1.90
Manu Ginobili	26	28	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.05	-9	0	-9	14.5	17.9	-3.38	12.1	14.4	-2.26
Stephen Jackson	62	61	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-8	-1	-7	17.7	15.5	2.18	14.2	13.0	1.19
Malik Rose	39	42	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.15	-8	-1	-7	15.6	17.9	-2.32	12.4	14.8	-2.43
Tim Duncan	87	87	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.25	-7	-2	-5	17.3	11.7	5.63	13.8	13.0	0.80
Tony Parker	80	81	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.26	-7	-2	-5	17.4	13.9	3.50	14.0	12.3	1.70

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Kidd	81	80	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.26	7	2	5	14.0	12.3	1.70	17.4	13.9	3.50
Rodney Rogers	44	40	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.25	6	3	3	12.8	14.5	-1.75	16.3	17.4	-1.03
Dikembe Mutombo	40	42	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.13	9	0	9	14.0	13.5	0.50	17.9	16.1	1.81
Richard Jefferson	73	74	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.08	9	0	9	14.0	12.8	1.25	17.1	16.3	0.84
Lucious Harris	50	46	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.20	4	5	-1	13.3	14.3	-1.01	15.7	18.2	-2.54
Kenyon Martin	60	61	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.14	4	5	-1	14.7	12.0	2.75	17.8	15.3	2.47
Kerry Kittles	47	48	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.00	6	3	3	14.4	13.1	1.32	18.0	15.8	2.20
Aaron Williams	50	48	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.12	2	7	-5	13.5	14.0	-0.50	16.2	17.7	-1.55
Jason Collins	15	13	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.00	-1	10	-11	11.5	14.2	-2.70	13.9	17.4	-3.50
Anthony Johnson	15	13	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.00	-1	10	-11	11.5	14.2	-2.70	13.9	17.4	-3.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.53,0.54,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.49,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.71,0.64,0.62,0.74,0.78,0.72,0.77,0.83,0.88,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 84, LAL 93	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.39,0.41,0.5,0.38,0.36,0.39,0.54,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.82,0.79,0.67,0.68,0.86,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%
VAN 96, UTA 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.5,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.53,0.61,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.56,0.71,0.74,0.84,0.88,0.83,0.81,0.92,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,1	94.2%
MIA 75, TOR 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.42,0.29,0.34,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.71,0.74,0.84,0.82,0.89,0.77,0.83,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.6%