inpredictable
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NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)
Real Time? Pre Game Odds?
Miami Heat 75 Excitement5.4 [696] MVPRasho Nesterovic (TOR): +10.7%
Toronto Raptors 91 Comeback2.4 [1100] LVPRicky Davis (MIA): -18.1%


Miami Heat
PlayerWPAeWPAclWPAgbWPAFGATS%tsWPATOtoWPAFTAFT%ftWPA
Daequan Cook0.070,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.070.080.010.021958%0.0710.0000%0.00
Mark Blount0.020,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02-0.000.02-0.00757%0.062-0.0500%0.00
Jason Williams0.010,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.010.010.010.00343%0.0100.001100%0.01
Blake Ahearn0.000,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0-0.020.00-0.020100%0.0010.001100%0.00
Joel Anthony-0.020,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02-0.030.00-0.0220%-0.0200.0000%0.00
Stephane Lasme-0.030,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03-0.02-0.010.00250%0.001-0.0300%0.00
Earl Barron-0.030,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03-0.04-0.01-0.021040%-0.011-0.0300%0.00
Chris Quinn-0.070,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07-0.05-0.04-0.021641%-0.022-0.052100%0.01
Kasib Powell-0.070,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07-0.05-0.020.001030%-0.0700.0000%0.00
Ricky Davis-0.180,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18-0.13-0.06-0.011242%0.036-0.212100%0.01

Toronto Raptors
PlayerWPAeWPAclWPAgbWPAFGATS%tsWPATOtoWPAFTAFT%ftWPA
Rasho Nesterovic0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.110.110.060.050.001953%0.1100.0000%0.00
Anthony Parker0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.110.110.080.030.016108%0.183-0.0800%0.00
Jason Kapono0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.070.070.010.01-0.04961%0.092-0.0200%0.00
Chris Bosh0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.040.040.040.020.02758%0.051-0.001275%-0.00
T.J. Ford0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.030.030.000.02-0.01679%0.144-0.102100%0.02
Primoz Brezec0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,00.000.000.000.00250%0.0000.0000%0.00
Kris Humphries0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,00.000.000.000.00250%0.0000.0000%0.00
Joey Graham00.000.000.000.0000%0.0000.0000%0.00
Carlos Delfino0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02-0.02-0.03-0.00-0.01437%0.001-0.0200%0.00
Jamario Moon0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06-0.06-0.02-0.030.01633%-0.0600.0000%0.00
Jose Calderon0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06-0.06-0.03-0.020.01425%-0.0600.0000%0.00
Andrea Bargnani0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07-0.07-0.06-0.010.001132%-0.051-0.033100%0.02
Game Length Report (minutes)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Total
this game24.81.824.217.423.52.324.6118.5
league avg27.92.430.016.226.62.433.3140.1
Win Probability Added by the Four Factors
(aka How the Game Was Won)
victory
100% WP
start
50% WP
TOR +26.1%
TOR +9.6%
TOR +0.6%
TOR +17.1%
MIA -3.3%
Pace and Efficiency Report

seconds / possessionpoints / 100 possessions
all possessionsMIATORNBAMIATORNBA
this game18.815.215.487.2109.6105.7
season16.015.699.0108.5
opponent15.715.4105.6108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

Q1Q2Q3Q4Total
MIA17.818.319.719.418.8
TOR14.115.115.316.615.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
possessionswin probabilitypointspace (offense)pace (defense)
playeroffensedefenseonoffdiffcl+/-onoffdiffonoffdiffonoffdiff
Jason Williams14130.05-0.550.60-0.012-182020.318.51.7912.315.8-3.46
Stephane Lasme31290.01-0.510.53-0.052-182017.519.5-1.9917.314.13.20
Blake Ahearn540.00-0.500.500.000-161620.818.72.1317.715.12.65
Mark Blount5856-0.08-0.420.350.01-3-131018.120.2-2.1614.416.9-2.41
Kasib Powell4443-0.19-0.310.11-0.02-6-10419.418.21.1714.715.8-1.15
Daequan Cook6562-0.36-0.14-0.220.05-14-2-1219.018.10.8615.215.4-0.20
Earl Barron3939-0.37-0.13-0.24-0.02-12-4-820.117.72.4513.816.5-2.75
Ricky Davis6665-0.45-0.05-0.41-0.04-14-2-1218.320.4-2.1615.514.41.07
Chris Quinn6766-0.550.05-0.60-0.02-182-2018.320.4-2.0915.713.62.06
Joel Anthony4138-0.560.06-0.62-0.06-171-1819.318.31.0516.614.12.54

Toronto Raptors
possessionswin probabilitypointspace (offense)pace (defense)
playeroffensedefenseonoffdiffcl+/-onoffdiffonoffdiffonoffdiff
Chris Bosh54550.390.110.29-0.051511415.414.90.4618.718.9-0.18
Carlos Delfino39400.360.140.220.01124813.916.4-2.5619.318.31.00
Andrea Bargnani33340.350.150.200.1288014.116.0-1.8419.618.21.37
Jose Calderon43440.350.150.20-0.00124814.016.5-2.5019.418.21.22
Jason Kapono38390.270.230.04-0.02106415.115.4-0.3319.817.91.93
Rasho Nesterovic75770.260.240.01-0.0197215.512.92.6118.223.7-5.45
Anthony Parker50510.250.250.010.0579-215.414.90.4817.720.3-2.57
T.J. Ford40420.150.35-0.200.03412-816.514.02.5018.219.4-1.22
Jamario Moon37390.110.39-0.270.02313-1016.514.22.2218.319.2-0.88
Primoz Brezec230.000.50-0.500.00016-1617.515.22.3322.018.73.33
Kris Humphries230.000.50-0.500.00016-1617.515.22.3322.018.73.33
Joey Graham230.000.50-0.500.00016-1617.515.22.3322.018.73.33


Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.42,0.29,0.34,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.71,0.74,0.84,0.82,0.89,0.77,0.83,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
GameSimilarity Score
VAN 96, UTA 1040.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.5,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.53,0.61,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.56,0.71,0.74,0.84,0.88,0.83,0.81,0.92,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,194.7%
PHI 87, UTA 980.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.36,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.81,0.87,0.82,0.83,0.88,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,1,1,194.5%
DEN 88, NYK 970.5,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.32,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.59,0.7,0.71,0.78,0.87,0.91,0.89,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.9,0.98,0.99,1,1,194.5%