NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	90		Excitement	3.0 [1151]		MVP	Anthony Peeler (MIN): +11.9%
Minnesota Timberwolves	104		Comeback	1.2 [1191]		LVP	Kenny Satterfield (DEN): -10.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Posey	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.02	10	45%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	5	60%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donnell Harvey	-0.01	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	9	57%	0.00	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.00
Zendon Hamilton	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	9	62%	0.01	1	-0.02	8	75%	-0.01
Carlos Arroyo	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	12	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	6	33%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mengke Bateer	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.00	0.01	11	46%	-0.03	3	-0.04	4	100%	0.00
Kenny Satterfield	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.00	0.05	20	50%	-0.04	4	-0.06	2	50%	-0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.00	-0.04	12	71%	0.13	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gary Trent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.00	-0.03	11	60%	0.07	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	9	58%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	0.00	0.03	14	65%	0.06	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	7	67%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	6	43%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Felipe Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.03	2	83%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Marc Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	4	60%	-0.01	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Loren Woods	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Pack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.08	0.01	-0.06	5	50%	0.02	4	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.12	0.00	-0.05	4	40%	-0.01	5	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	1.8	28.0	16.0	24.0	1.6	24.6	118.5
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +34.8%

MIN +4.9%

MIN +13.3%

DEN -3.8%

MIN +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIN	NBA	DEN	MIN	NBA
this game	17.6	15.3	15.6	102.3	119.5	102.3
season	16.1	15.0		99.7	106.7
opponent	16.1	15.2		103.8	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	18.3	17.6	17.7	16.9	17.6
MIN	14.2	18.4	14.3	14.4	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Bowen	20	20	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.05	-4	-10	6	17.6	17.6	-0.05	18.4	14.3	4.07
Carlos Arroyo	46	47	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.24	2	-16	18	17.1	18.2	-1.15	16.0	14.4	1.60
Mengke Bateer	49	48	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.13	-2	-12	10	18.0	17.2	0.87	15.3	15.3	0.01
Chris Andersen	45	46	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.16	-3	-11	8	16.5	18.8	-2.26	14.9	15.6	-0.70
James Posey	47	45	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	0.03	-11	-3	-8	18.4	16.7	1.69	14.4	16.2	-1.84
Donnell Harvey	65	64	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.02	-10	-4	-6	17.9	16.9	0.98	15.6	14.4	1.13
Calbert Cheaney	42	40	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.15	-16	2	-18	18.2	17.1	1.15	14.4	16.0	-1.60
Zendon Hamilton	49	48	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	0.08	-16	2	-18	17.5	17.8	-0.28	15.7	14.8	0.90
Kenny Satterfield	77	77	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.12	-10	-4	-6	17.4	19.1	-1.66	14.7	19.9	-5.24

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Pack	52	54	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.13	8	6	2	15.4	15.0	0.39	17.4	17.9	-0.50
Anthony Peeler	52	53	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.09	9	5	4	15.4	15.0	0.39	17.4	18.0	-0.65
Kevin Garnett	42	43	0.32	0.18	0.15	-0.14	16	-2	18	14.4	16.1	-1.66	18.2	17.1	1.17
Rasho Nesterovic	50	52	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.03	12	2	10	14.1	16.9	-2.78	18.3	16.7	1.55
Gary Trent	47	48	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.20	2	12	-10	15.5	15.0	0.44	16.8	18.6	-1.81
Joe Smith	31	31	0.21	0.29	-0.07	-0.08	10	4	6	15.2	15.3	-0.11	18.9	17.0	1.91
Wally Szczerbiak	39	40	0.20	0.30	-0.11	-0.04	8	6	2	16.1	14.6	1.43	18.4	17.0	1.40
Chauncey Billups	35	34	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.04	6	8	-2	15.0	15.4	-0.39	17.9	17.4	0.50
Marc Jackson	28	26	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.09	1	13	-12	16.1	14.9	1.24	16.7	18.0	-1.34
Felipe Lopez	28	26	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.17	-2	16	-18	16.5	14.7	1.77	15.5	18.5	-3.09
Loren Woods	9	10	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.03	1	13	-12	19.2	14.8	4.41	16.8	17.7	-0.94
Sam Mitchell	22	23	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.07	-1	15	-16	13.3	15.9	-2.67	18.3	17.4	0.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.62,0.72,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.77,0.74,0.8,0.87,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.89,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 94, OKC 112	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.8,0.78,0.83,0.87,0.84,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.91,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.0%
HOU 94, DEN 111	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.72,0.76,0.8,0.73,0.76,0.78,0.83,0.85,0.8,0.87,0.88,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.9%
MEM 68, SAS 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.66,0.72,0.74,0.72,0.68,0.69,0.7,0.76,0.83,0.83,0.89,0.89,0.89,0.86,0.86,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.9,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.8%