NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	90		Excitement	1.5 [720]		MVP	Calbert Cheaney (DEN): +9.6%
Denver Nuggets	98		Comeback	2.8 [145]		LVP	Bryon Russell (UTA): -16.3%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Scott Padgett	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.04	0.01	7	71%	0.09	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
John Amaechi	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Greg Ostertag	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rusty LaRue	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Andrei Kirilenko	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	13	48%	0.03	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
John Starks	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarron Collins	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	3	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	7	56%	0.02	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
John Stockton	-0.06	0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	0.04	6	106%	0.09	8	-0.15	6	100%	0.01
Donyell Marshall	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	12	38%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Karl Malone	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.04	0.01	8	62%	-0.01	4	-0.09	8	87%	0.01
Bryon Russell	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.14	-0.03	-0.01	7	29%	-0.07	5	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.00	-0.03	12	68%	0.11	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.00	15	62%	0.11	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.03	0.01	12	54%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Satterfield	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.04	-0.03	5	47%	0.04	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.00
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	3	80%	0.06	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.01
Mengke Bateer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0	100%	0.01	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	3	50%	-0.05	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Zendon Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	3	42%	-0.03	1	-0.04	6	50%	-0.02
Donnell Harvey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George McCloud	0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	6	61%	0.02	5	-0.10	6	67%	-0.03
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	9	48%	-0.08	4	-0.06	5	40%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.6	29.4	11.8	30.0	1.8	33.4	134.2
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +27.2%

UTA -2.5%

UTA -0.8%

DEN +24.2%

DEN +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	DEN	NBA	UTA	DEN	NBA
this game	14.7	14.4	15.6	90.9	99.0	102.3
season	16.1	16.1		102.9	99.7
opponent	15.2	15.1		105.9	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	13.2	17.4	16.9	12.0	14.7
DEN	13.5	15.4	13.1	15.7	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Ostertag	11	12	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.06	4	-12	16	16.8	14.5	2.36	17.9	13.9	4.03
John Starks	5	4	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.00	1	-9	10	13.6	14.8	-1.18	11.7	14.5	-2.73
Scott Padgett	43	42	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.17	2	-10	12	15.1	14.4	0.75	14.1	14.6	-0.53
Rusty LaRue	27	27	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.08	-2	-6	4	16.0	14.2	1.71	14.4	14.3	0.10
Jarron Collins	28	28	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.01	-6	-2	-4	14.3	14.9	-0.60	12.3	15.2	-2.91
DeShawn Stevenson	47	46	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.16	-1	-7	6	15.3	14.2	1.15	14.2	14.5	-0.25
Andrei Kirilenko	77	76	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.20	-1	-7	6	14.3	16.0	-1.71	14.6	13.5	1.17
John Amaechi	20	19	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.13	-5	-3	-2	12.9	15.2	-2.21	16.6	13.8	2.79
Donyell Marshall	43	43	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.09	-8	0	-8	15.2	14.4	0.83	13.8	14.8	-0.99
Bryon Russell	47	49	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.10	-8	0	-8	14.2	15.2	-0.92	14.7	14.0	0.67
John Stockton	72	72	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.18	-6	-2	-4	14.2	16.0	-1.71	14.3	14.4	-0.10
Karl Malone	75	77	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.15	-10	2	-12	14.9	14.1	0.84	14.2	14.9	-0.63

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Posey	78	79	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.28	11	-3	14	14.1	15.3	-1.16	13.9	17.8	-3.93
Calbert Cheaney	55	55	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.10	9	-1	10	13.3	15.7	-2.48	15.5	13.7	1.82
George McCloud	62	61	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.08	9	-1	10	14.1	14.9	-0.78	14.7	14.7	0.01
Chris Andersen	16	17	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.04	9	-1	10	14.7	14.3	0.45	14.4	14.8	-0.44
Zendon Hamilton	19	21	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.01	9	-1	10	14.3	14.4	-0.07	16.6	14.2	2.41
Juwan Howard	74	73	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.18	3	5	-2	14.0	15.6	-1.59	14.6	15.0	-0.44
Ryan Bowen	55	55	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.18	2	6	-4	12.9	16.3	-3.42	14.1	15.4	-1.29
Voshon Lenard	52	51	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.13	2	6	-4	15.8	12.8	3.02	14.9	14.5	0.34
Kenny Satterfield	37	38	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.18	-1	9	-10	14.9	14.1	0.78	14.7	14.7	-0.01
Mengke Bateer	23	22	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.09	-5	13	-18	17.8	13.3	4.50	14.3	14.8	-0.57
Donnell Harvey	24	23	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	0.05	-8	16	-24	15.8	13.9	1.87	15.8	14.4	1.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.38,0.33,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.58,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.91,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.96,0.97,1,0.99,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 89, MIL 105	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.45,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.32,0.25,0.31,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.81,0.88,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.89,0.97,0.96,1,1,1,1	94.1%
CHA 86, UTA 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.63,0.74,0.74,0.84,0.82,0.87,0.95,0.97,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.9%
ORL 84, LAL 97	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.37,0.33,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.38,0.35,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.37,0.43,0.43,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.75,0.7,0.82,0.82,0.91,0.95,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.8%