NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	105		Excitement	6.6 [485]		MVP	Greg Ostertag (UTA): +20.4%
Utah Jazz	109		Comeback	17.6 [148]		LVP	Rusty LaRue (UTA): -13.8%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cuttino Mobley	0.09	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.09	0.10	0.01	0.02	20	61%	0.11	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.06
Kelvin Cato	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.01	7	75%	0.09	1	-0.01	6	83%	-0.02
Steve Francis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01	0.08	-0.07	0.00	22	62%	0.06	2	-0.05	8	100%	0.04
Jason Collier	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	1	75%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Dan Langhi	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terence Morris	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Walt Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	0.05	-0.03	0.05	5	80%	0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Moochie Norris	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Thomas	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,0,0,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.06	-0.00	13	50%	0.01	4	-0.14	4	75%	-0.01

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Greg Ostertag	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2	0.20	0.07	0.13	-0.00	4	86%	0.20	0	0.00	6	67%	0.01
John Stockton	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.08	0.01	11	69%	0.16	2	-0.04	7	86%	0.04
Scott Padgett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	7	60%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	13	50%	0.06	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jarron Collins	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
John Starks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	9	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.09
Karl Malone	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	0.01	18	55%	0.06	4	-0.10	6	83%	-0.00
Bryon Russell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	12	42%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
John Amaechi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	0.00	3	22%	-0.07	1	-0.02	3	0%	-0.05
Rusty LaRue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.04	-0.09	0.01	4	40%	-0.08	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	300.1	1.4	27.5	15.7	27.4	2.4	38.3	412.8
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +12.0%

HOU -5.5%

UTA +45.8%

UTA +2.3%

HOU -4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	UTA	NBA	HOU	UTA	NBA
this game	16.4	16.7	15.6	118.0	128.2	102.3
season	16.8	16.1		100.9	102.9
opponent	15.1	15.2		101.9	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	14.7	18.5	15.3	17.0	16.4
UTA	19.9	14.9	18.2	14.3	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Walt Williams	45	41	0.48	-0.98	1.45	-0.08	19	-23	42	15.0	17.8	-2.82	16.2	17.2	-0.92
Kelvin Cato	67	62	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.51	14	-18	32	16.7	15.4	1.37	17.4	14.8	2.59
Terence Morris	35	34	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.12	-8	4	-12	16.5	16.3	0.15	16.1	17.1	-1.05
Jason Collier	14	16	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.09	-13	9	-22	18.1	16.1	1.99	17.9	16.4	1.43
Cuttino Mobley	74	71	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.45	5	-9	14	15.3	21.9	-6.66	16.5	18.0	-1.54
Kenny Thomas	69	66	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.43	2	-6	8	16.6	15.8	0.70	16.8	16.5	0.31
Steve Francis	84	79	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.43	1	-5	6	16.2	19.2	-2.97	16.7	17.3	-0.66
Dan Langhi	21	20	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.15	-19	15	-34	18.1	15.9	2.23	19.0	16.0	3.05
Moochie Norris	36	36	-0.99	0.49	-1.47	-0.37	-21	17	-38	18.2	15.2	2.98	15.3	17.8	-2.45

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rusty LaRue	27	28	0.93	-0.43	1.37	0.38	19	-15	34	14.1	17.9	-3.87	16.6	16.3	0.31
Greg Ostertag	31	31	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.42	12	-8	20	17.1	16.5	0.60	17.0	16.1	0.88
Scott Padgett	52	54	0.37	0.13	0.25	-0.09	16	-12	28	15.2	19.1	-3.83	16.6	16.1	0.41
DeShawn Stevenson	49	50	0.36	0.14	0.21	-0.29	22	-18	40	16.0	17.7	-1.74	17.6	14.9	2.66
John Stockton	52	55	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.62	-12	16	-28	16.6	17.0	-0.41	15.9	17.3	-1.41
Karl Malone	65	70	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.50	-10	14	-24	16.3	18.2	-1.94	16.0	17.9	-1.98
Bryon Russell	67	70	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.38	-12	16	-28	16.6	17.1	-0.50	15.7	18.9	-3.25
John Starks	7	8	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	3	-2	19.7	16.4	3.27	16.5	16.4	0.12
John Amaechi	18	17	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	-0.07	0	4	-4	17.7	16.5	1.20	16.8	16.3	0.46
Andrei Kirilenko	46	48	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	-0.01	-5	9	-14	19.4	13.6	5.83	16.6	16.1	0.55
Jarron Collins	11	14	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	0.08	-11	15	-26	21.9	15.9	5.96	16.2	16.4	-0.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.24,0.25,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.32,0.29,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.35,0.31,0.33,0.19,0.24,0.18,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.13,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.33,0.47,0.3,0.31,0.4,0.62,0.78,0.95,0.97,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 94, POR 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.39,0.3,0.21,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.17,0.14,0.13,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.27,0.26,0.36,0.53,0.32,0.46,0.67,0.92,1	90.6%
PHI 101, MEM 105	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.35,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.22,0.29,0.33,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.4,0.34,0.27,0.19,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.11,0.32,0.47,0.35,0.39,0.68,0.9,0.78,0.73,1	90.6%
MIL 97, MIN 103	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.33,0.29,0.27,0.28,0.34,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.56,0.56,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.33,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.24,0.27,0.18,0.07,0.14,0.23,0.26,0.15,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.2,0.23,0.41,0.53,0.46,0.62,0.71,0.9,0.91,1	90.3%