NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	115		Excitement	5.8 [652]		MVP	Erick Dampier (GSW): +17.5%
Minnesota Timberwolves	106		Comeback	1.1 [212]		LVP	Chauncey Billups (MIN): -13.4%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Erick Dampier	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.08	0.09	0.00	8	88%	0.23	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Chris Mills	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.02	-0.04	10	67%	0.14	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.01
Antawn Jamison	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.03	0.00	18	62%	0.14	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Danny Fortson	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	11	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Adonal Foyle	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	5	80%	0.10	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	10	50%	0.02	3	-0.07	2	0%	-0.04
Jason Richardson	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	13	46%	0.00	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.00
Bob Sura	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	7	50%	-0.05	1	-0.02	8	75%	-0.01

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	-0.00	-0.00	18	61%	0.07	1	-0.00	10	100%	0.05
Kevin Garnett	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	18	65%	0.11	2	-0.06	12	83%	0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	8	53%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	0.01	0.04	9	61%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	4	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Felipe Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	7	55%	0.01	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.01
Loren Woods	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Pack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.03	-0.00	6	33%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Marc Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	40%	-0.03	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
Gary Trent	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.04	-0.04	0.06	9	44%	-0.06	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	1.6	28.2	15.0	27.3	1.6	31.2	129.0
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +60.2%

MIN -11.3%

GSW +10.8%

MIN -6.9%

MIN -2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	MIN	NBA	GSW	MIN	NBA
this game	14.1	14.6	15.6	113.9	106.0	102.3
season	14.7	15.0		100.7	106.7
opponent	16.1	15.1		103.8	106.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	12.6	14.5	14.1	15.4	14.1
MIN	14.1	16.8	13.6	14.0	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Richardson	78	78	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.22	7	2	5	14.1	14.2	-0.08	15.0	12.9	2.10
Adonal Foyle	46	46	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.04	9	0	9	13.0	15.0	-2.04	14.5	14.6	-0.13
Chris Mills	40	39	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.12	6	3	3	14.5	13.8	0.69	14.2	14.8	-0.65
Bob Sura	62	59	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.26	1	8	-7	15.2	12.4	2.85	13.8	15.7	-1.88
Gilbert Arenas	62	63	0.28	0.22	0.07	-0.01	10	-1	11	13.0	15.8	-2.79	14.7	14.3	0.40
Antawn Jamison	72	71	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.13	4	5	-1	13.8	14.9	-1.10	14.2	15.4	-1.22
Danny Fortson	59	58	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.04	7	2	5	13.9	14.5	-0.59	14.7	14.3	0.41
Troy Murphy	33	34	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.12	3	6	-3	14.0	14.2	-0.16	15.0	14.3	0.73
Erick Dampier	53	52	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.26	-2	11	-13	15.5	12.5	2.99	14.9	14.2	0.70

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sam Mitchell	10	10	0.06	-0.56	0.61	0.03	1	-10	11	14.3	14.6	-0.28	9.4	14.6	-5.23
Felipe Lopez	34	36	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.12	3	-12	15	14.0	14.8	-0.88	15.2	13.5	1.69
Anthony Peeler	36	38	-0.12	-0.39	0.27	-0.17	2	-11	13	14.3	14.7	-0.43	15.0	13.6	1.39
Loren Woods	8	8	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.04	-3	-6	3	13.4	14.7	-1.28	15.2	14.0	1.24
Robert Pack	40	41	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.14	-2	-7	5	15.6	13.8	1.83	14.6	13.7	0.88
Marc Jackson	42	44	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.17	-3	-6	3	14.6	14.5	0.08	13.8	14.3	-0.52
Chauncey Billups	60	60	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.10	-7	-2	-5	13.8	15.6	-1.83	13.7	14.6	-0.88
Rasho Nesterovic	59	58	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.13	-6	-3	-3	14.2	15.0	-0.80	14.7	13.3	1.40
Wally Szczerbiak	85	84	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.24	-4	-5	1	14.6	14.1	0.57	13.7	15.9	-2.13
Gary Trent	41	39	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.07	-17	8	-25	15.9	13.6	2.21	13.1	14.7	-1.64
Kevin Garnett	85	87	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.17	-9	0	-9	14.5	14.7	-0.14	14.3	13.1	1.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.36,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.29,0.22,0.16,0.14,0.19,0.21,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.15,0.11,0.03,0.02,0.05,0,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 108, TOR 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.3,0.3,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.42,0.51,0.48,0.36,0.35,0.23,0.31,0.18,0.26,0.18,0.19,0.16,0.29,0.28,0.19,0.14,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0,0	94.6%
MEM 92, PHX 81	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.32,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.22,0.19,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.15,0.22,0.25,0.2,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.3%
NJN 104, CHA 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.31,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.34,0.34,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.27,0.21,0.17,0.16,0.23,0.22,0.18,0.22,0.15,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	93.9%