NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	93		Excitement	6.5 [504]		MVP	Alonzo Mourning (MIA): +16.8%
Memphis Grizzlies	88		Comeback	1.4 [900]		LVP	Rodney Buford (MEM): -20.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alonzo Mourning	0.17	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17	-0.02	0.16	-0.03	14	53%	0.21	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.02
Jim Jackson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.12,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.00	-0.01	15	60%	0.12	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	9	64%	0.08	1	-0.04	7	86%	0.02
Vladimir Stepania	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	5	71%	0.03	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.03
Rod Strickland	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	13	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	8	87%	0.01
Anthony Carter	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kendall Gill	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.12	0.00	-0.03	14	32%	-0.07	2	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Brian Grant	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	7	29%	-0.06	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shane Battier	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17	0.17	0.09	0.12	0.04	8	89%	0.22	3	-0.06	3	100%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ike Fontaine	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Grant Long	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	4	82%	0.05	3	-0.07	3	33%	-0.03
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.02	0.01	17	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	0	50%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Brevin Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	5	27%	-0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Jason Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	0.00	-0.10	0.01	15	58%	-0.02	3	-0.08	3	67%	-0.03
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.13	-0.06	-0.00	20	33%	-0.17	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Rodney Buford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.2	-0.20	-0.15	-0.10	-0.04	14	14%	-0.20	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	2.6	27.7	15.0	26.0	1.7	36.4	131.4
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +39.8%

MIA +2.8%

MIA +10.7%

MEM -2.1%

MEM -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MEM	NBA	MIA	MEM	NBA
this game	16.7	15.7	15.6	104.5	98.9	102.3
season	16.5	15.7		96.6	96.0
opponent	15.2	15.8		103.8	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	18.1	18.4	15.2	15.3	16.7
MEM	16.2	15.9	16.1	14.7	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jim Jackson	51	49	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.28	12	-7	19	15.8	17.8	-2.01	16.0	15.3	0.77
Rod Strickland	59	59	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.35	4	1	3	16.1	17.8	-1.77	15.6	15.9	-0.26
Vladimir Stepania	36	38	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.10	11	-6	17	17.0	16.5	0.52	16.6	15.1	1.49
Eddie Jones	70	71	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.29	3	2	1	16.2	18.2	-1.97	15.3	17.4	-2.19
Brian Grant	68	67	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.29	0	5	-5	17.0	15.7	1.30	15.5	16.3	-0.77
Alonzo Mourning	74	73	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.32	-1	6	-7	16.2	18.8	-2.57	15.4	16.9	-1.51
Anthony Carter	30	30	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.01	1	4	-3	17.8	16.1	1.77	15.9	15.6	0.26
Kendall Gill	57	58	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.14	-5	10	-15	17.9	14.4	3.57	15.9	15.2	0.72

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Grant Long	44	43	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-6	7	15.8	15.6	0.29	18.0	15.4	2.59
Ike Fontaine	13	11	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.11	3	-8	11	14.6	15.9	-1.27	12.6	17.2	-4.59
Tony Massenburg	8	9	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.05	-5	0	-5	17.5	15.5	1.98	21.9	16.1	5.81
Pau Gasol	72	71	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.34	4	-9	13	15.7	15.8	-0.08	16.7	16.6	0.13
Jason Williams	66	67	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.29	1	-6	7	15.4	16.5	-1.05	16.3	17.9	-1.66
Stromile Swift	21	21	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.01	-9	4	-13	16.0	15.6	0.40	16.0	16.9	-0.87
Brevin Knight	29	28	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.05	-11	6	-17	16.7	15.2	1.52	17.4	16.3	1.01
Rodney Buford	52	53	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.28	-4	-1	-3	15.7	15.7	-0.01	16.4	17.0	-0.57
Lorenzen Wright	77	77	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.40	0	-5	5	15.4	17.3	-1.89	16.2	19.6	-3.38
Shane Battier	63	65	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.31	-5	0	-5	15.6	15.8	-0.21	16.8	16.4	0.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.19,0.13,0.14,0.17,0.2,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.48,0.58,0.43,0.35,0.29,0.25,0.18,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.12,0.21,0.19,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.07,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 100, POR 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.29,0.25,0.2,0.16,0.17,0.15,0.18,0.17,0.22,0.25,0.32,0.37,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.15,0.16,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.22,0.14,0.15,0.23,0.09,0	92.9%
WAS 91, MIA 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.31,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.31,0.4,0.3,0.37,0.34,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.26,0.16,0.13,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.06,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	92.8%
DAL 102, CHA 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.35,0.29,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.31,0.25,0.21,0.22,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.33,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.2,0.14,0.15,0.19,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.24,0.17,0.14,0.15,0.16,0,0	92.6%