NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	92		Excitement	5.7 [675]		MVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): +11.6%
Chicago Bulls	87		Comeback	1.9 [779]		LVP	Marcus Fizer (CHI): -8.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.01	0.08	-0.02	11	54%	0.14	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Brian Grant	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.00	10	60%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendall Gill	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05	0.06	-0.01	0.00	7	69%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rod Strickland	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	11	68%	0.08	2	-0.06	12	58%	-0.04
Alonzo Mourning	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.01	-0.12	0.08	-0.03	10	50%	0.05	3	-0.06	16	62%	-0.02
Anthony Carter	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	6	33%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Gatling	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	5	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Vladimir Stepania	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	6	33%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jim Jackson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	6	17%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.12,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.03	0.02	21	53%	0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.03	0.02	11	67%	0.11	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.02
Eddie Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Fred Hoiberg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Oakley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	4	75%	0.05	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Trenton Hassell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	5	45%	-0.02	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Eddy Curry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Dalibor Bagaric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	5	58%	-0.01	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Marcus Fizer	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	0.00	-0.00	13	37%	-0.06	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.5	29.3	15.5	24.5	2.3	35.5	133.0
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +20.6%

MIA +14.5%

MIA +5.1%

MIA +9.8%

MIA +0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHI	NBA	MIA	CHI	NBA
this game	16.6	16.3	15.6	105.7	98.9	102.3
season	16.5	15.6		96.6	96.3
opponent	15.6	15.8		105.5	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.7	15.0	16.2	18.7	16.6
CHI	14.6	17.7	17.3	15.6	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kendall Gill	44	46	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.11	21	-16	37	17.0	16.3	0.68	17.7	14.8	2.84
Eddie Jones	74	75	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.38	7	-2	9	15.9	20.7	-4.79	16.0	18.0	-2.00
Brian Grant	66	66	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.29	8	-3	11	16.9	15.8	1.07	16.3	16.2	0.15
Rod Strickland	60	59	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.28	8	-3	11	16.5	16.9	-0.44	16.8	15.2	1.62
Alonzo Mourning	54	53	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.34	-1	6	-7	16.7	16.4	0.32	17.1	15.1	1.91
Vladimir Stepania	32	33	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.05	4	1	3	16.8	16.5	0.25	15.8	16.6	-0.76
Anthony Carter	29	31	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.10	-3	8	-11	16.6	16.6	-0.00	16.1	16.4	-0.36
Chris Gatling	21	22	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.07	-3	8	-11	15.8	16.9	-1.07	16.2	16.3	-0.15
Jim Jackson	55	55	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	0.17	-16	21	-37	17.3	15.5	1.72	14.7	19.0	-4.33

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dalibor Bagaric	36	34	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.09	6	-11	17	15.7	16.7	-1.06	16.8	16.5	0.28
Fred Hoiberg	9	9	-0.14	-0.35	0.21	0.06	-7	2	-9	14.9	16.5	-1.57	13.8	16.9	-3.17
Jamal Crawford	29	27	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.06	-3	-2	-1	16.5	16.2	0.28	17.0	16.4	0.55
Charles Oakley	57	57	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.26	2	-7	9	16.8	15.5	1.30	18.2	13.6	4.61
Eddie Robinson	42	39	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.15	-2	-3	1	16.5	16.1	0.35	17.6	15.8	1.76
Trenton Hassell	51	52	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.17	-3	-2	-1	15.6	17.3	-1.73	15.3	18.6	-3.36
Eddy Curry	23	24	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.12	-7	2	-9	15.0	16.8	-1.75	14.0	17.6	-3.56
Travis Best	59	60	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.30	-2	-3	1	16.2	16.5	-0.28	16.4	17.0	-0.55
Jalen Rose	79	78	-0.35	-0.14	-0.21	-0.41	2	-7	9	16.5	14.9	1.57	16.9	13.8	3.17
Marcus Fizer	55	55	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.27	-11	6	-17	17.3	14.6	2.70	16.6	16.7	-0.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.59,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.23,0.12,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.19,0.11,0.2,0.22,0.25,0.11,0.04,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 105, GSW 97	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.6,0.54,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.16,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.05,0.01,0.01,0	93.5%
SAS 92, HOU 84	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.43,0.39,0.33,0.18,0.12,0.11,0.18,0.09,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.15,0.03,0.04,0	93.4%
BOS 102, NYK 99	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.5,0.38,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.14,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.15,0.18,0.25,0.2,0.27,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.03,0.08,0	93.3%