NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	92		Excitement	6.2 [553]		MVP	Richard Jefferson (SAS): +10.1%
Houston Rockets	84		Comeback	1.8 [504]		LVP	Trevor Ariza (HOU): -18.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Jefferson	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1	0.04	0.06	0.00	5	53%	0.10	0	0.00	7	100%	0.06
Tim Duncan	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.02	0.07	-0.01	17	52%	0.14	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
DeJuan Blair	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.00	0.00	4	78%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Michael Finley	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	4	75%	0.05	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Hairston	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0	0.02	-0.00	0.02	11	58%	0.08	2	-0.08	4	75%	-0.01
Matt Bonner	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.01	4	50%	0.00	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.00
Keith Bogans	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	3	20%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Tony Parker	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1	-0.08	-0.03	-0.02	18	45%	-0.02	4	-0.08	6	50%	-0.03

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	4	62%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carl Landry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	13	45%	0.04	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Chase Budinger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.00	8	56%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luis Scola	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	0.00	14	64%	0.08	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	16	36%	-0.02	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	6	56%	0.04	3	-0.13	6	83%	0.01
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.12	-0.05	-0.01	8	0%	-0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.10	-0.12	-0.02	21	37%	-0.15	2	-0.04	4	25%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.7	26.0	15.5	32.3	2.5	42.3	144.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +37.6%

SAS +14.1%

HOU -5.0%

HOU -1.1%

SAS +4.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	HOU	NBA	SAS	HOU	NBA
this game	15.3	15.6	15.3	98.9	90.3	106.0
season	15.9	15.0		108.2	106.0
opponent	15.1	15.1		106.1	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.8	14.1	14.6	17.6	15.3
HOU	16.5	17.2	17.3	11.7	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio McDyess	62	60	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.16	14	-6	20	15.3	15.4	-0.13	15.1	16.5	-1.41
Tony Parker	71	71	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.20	9	-1	10	15.4	15.2	0.14	15.0	17.6	-2.62
Keith Bogans	51	50	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.10	12	-4	16	15.4	15.2	0.17	15.9	15.4	0.49
Tim Duncan	70	70	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.21	5	3	2	15.9	13.5	2.41	14.8	18.2	-3.43
Richard Jefferson	66	66	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.23	4	4	0	16.2	13.3	2.82	15.0	17.1	-2.13
Michael Finley	35	36	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.08	3	5	-2	15.1	15.5	-0.44	17.3	14.6	2.73
DeJuan Blair	19	20	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.02	3	5	-2	11.7	16.3	-4.59	19.3	14.6	4.67
Roger Mason Jr.	24	23	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.03	2	6	-4	13.7	15.9	-2.25	17.3	15.1	2.22
Theo Ratliff	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	8	-8	24.0	15.1	8.86	14.5	15.7	-1.16
Malik Hairston	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	8	-8	14.0	15.3	-1.35	4.0	15.8	-11.76
George Hill	33	34	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.17	-6	14	-20	15.0	15.5	-0.56	14.6	16.3	-1.70
Matt Bonner	31	32	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.13	-6	14	-20	15.8	15.1	0.76	16.9	15.0	1.99

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charles Hayes	37	36	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.00	-2	-6	4	17.3	14.5	2.76	14.2	16.0	-1.77
Kyle Lowry	44	47	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.20	2	-10	12	14.6	16.5	-1.89	15.3	15.3	-0.03
Chase Budinger	35	36	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.15	0	-8	8	16.3	15.2	1.09	16.4	14.7	1.68
David Andersen	41	41	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.21	0	-8	8	14.5	16.6	-2.09	15.5	15.2	0.32
Luis Scola	52	52	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.05	-8	0	-8	16.6	14.5	2.09	15.2	15.5	-0.32
Shane Battier	50	48	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.10	-8	0	-8	16.6	14.6	2.00	15.3	15.4	-0.09
Aaron Brooks	64	63	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-8	0	-8	15.4	16.2	-0.83	14.8	16.5	-1.72
Carl Landry	56	57	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.27	-6	-2	-4	14.5	17.3	-2.76	16.0	14.2	1.77
Trevor Ariza	86	85	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.25	-10	2	-12	15.5	17.0	-1.48	15.3	15.2	0.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.43,0.39,0.33,0.18,0.12,0.11,0.18,0.09,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.15,0.03,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 111, BOS 105	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.55,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.33,0.27,0.21,0.1,0.05,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.18,0.29,0.19,0.17,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.05,0.04,0.02,0	94.1%
MIA 92, CHI 87	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.59,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.23,0.12,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.19,0.11,0.2,0.22,0.25,0.11,0.04,0.16,0	93.4%
DEN 99, SAC 90	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.45,0.55,0.57,0.65,0.7,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.41,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.45,0.39,0.36,0.23,0.19,0.11,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.13,0.06,0.03,0,0,0	93.2%