NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	80		Excitement	6.0 [609]		MVP	Jim Jackson (MIA): +17.7%
Miami Heat	92		Comeback	3.5 [510]		LVP	Michael Jordan (WAS): -27.9%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyronn Lue	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.12	0.07	0.04	15	70%	0.17	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Whitney	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	4	83%	0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Tyrone Nesby	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	5	60%	0.03	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	0.01	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	-0.03	15	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hubert Davis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	7	36%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Etan Thomas	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.03	4	36%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.02
Jahidi White	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.25,-0.25,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.20	-0.07	-0.05	15	27%	-0.05	5	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Michael Jordan	-0.28	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.24,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28	-0.18	-0.11	-0.01	13	33%	-0.09	6	-0.19	1	0%	-0.04

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jim Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.05	0.11	-0.02	8	62%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.00	6	69%	0.11	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	71%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	10	64%	0.08	3	-0.08	2	0%	-0.04
Kendall Gill	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.01	11	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	12	58%	0.05	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.03
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	10	67%	0.04	4	-0.09	4	100%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	11	42%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.04	-0.00	4	0%	-0.10	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.6	29.4	15.7	22.2	2.4	26.5	122.2
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +21.7%

MIA +16.2%

MIA +8.3%

MIA +6.7%

WAS -2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MIA	NBA	WAS	MIA	NBA
this game	16.6	16.3	15.6	90.9	105.7	102.3
season	16.5	16.5		102.2	96.6
opponent	15.8	15.3		98.2	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	15.4	15.1	19.1	17.1	16.6
MIA	17.3	15.5	14.3	18.0	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jahidi White	25	26	0.13	-0.63	0.75	0.04	3	-15	18	16.2	16.8	-0.68	15.7	16.5	-0.87
Brendan Haywood	15	13	0.09	-0.59	0.67	-0.00	3	-15	18	15.2	16.9	-1.75	18.8	15.8	3.04
Chris Whitney	41	41	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.15	-3	-9	6	15.4	17.7	-2.31	15.0	17.4	-2.44
Michael Jordan	56	55	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.08	-1	-11	10	16.2	17.3	-1.09	16.1	16.6	-0.57
Hubert Davis	31	31	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.11	-2	-10	8	15.0	17.6	-2.59	16.1	16.3	-0.21
Richard Hamilton	71	70	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.06	-10	-2	-8	16.8	16.1	0.73	16.0	17.4	-1.43
Etan Thomas	38	39	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.17	-12	0	-12	18.3	15.4	2.94	15.9	16.5	-0.62
Tyronn Lue	50	49	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.26	-9	-3	-6	17.0	16.2	0.72	17.0	15.3	1.68
Tyrone Nesby	45	45	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.16	-13	1	-14	17.4	15.9	1.45	17.2	15.3	1.89
Christian Laettner	68	66	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.08	-16	4	-20	17.2	14.7	2.46	16.4	16.0	0.41

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaPhonso Ellis	45	45	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.20	15	-3	18	16.8	15.6	1.20	17.5	15.7	1.77
Alonzo Mourning	62	60	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.16	16	-4	20	16.6	15.4	1.16	16.7	16.5	0.22
Eddie Jones	73	74	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.18	14	-2	16	16.2	16.4	-0.20	17.3	13.1	4.25
Jim Jackson	49	50	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.16	9	3	6	16.7	15.7	1.08	15.3	18.4	-3.12
Rod Strickland	63	64	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.01	11	1	10	15.9	17.1	-1.19	17.1	15.4	1.69
Anthony Carter	25	25	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.17	-1	13	-14	16.8	16.1	0.70	14.8	17.4	-2.58
Vladimir Stepania	10	12	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	-0.02	-1	13	-14	17.0	16.2	0.83	14.5	17.0	-2.49
Kendall Gill	57	58	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	-0.04	-1	13	-14	15.7	17.4	-1.68	16.6	16.7	-0.08
Brian Grant	51	52	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.08	-2	14	-16	15.6	17.2	-1.59	17.0	16.1	0.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.46,0.34,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.43,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.3,0.23,0.26,0.31,0.34,0.4,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.77,0.86,0.93,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 85, HOU 90	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.27,0.29,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.53,0.7,0.76,0.73,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.91,1	92.9%
DAL 87, CLE 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.42,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.28,0.34,0.29,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.63,0.7,0.85,0.91,0.97,1,1,1,1	92.5%
MIN 102, ORL 108	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.39,0.37,0.45,0.35,0.32,0.41,0.48,0.33,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.89,0.85,0.97,0.98,1	92.4%