NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	80		Excitement	3.8 [1020]		MVP	Jim Jackson (MIA): +3.5%
Miami Heat	102		Comeback	1.2 [1202]		LVP	Trenton Hassell (CHI): -10.1%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Fred Hoiberg	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	6	69%	0.01	1	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Eddy Curry	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.05	8	63%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Marcus Fizer	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	-0.01	-0.05	8	45%	-0.00	3	-0.04	6	50%	-0.01
Kevin Ollie	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	5	57%	0.01	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
A.J. Guyton	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	14	41%	-0.04	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Tyson Chandler	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	5	62%	-0.03	3	-0.05	11	45%	-0.04
Dalibor Bagaric	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.12	-0.01	-0.03	6	31%	-0.06	3	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Trenton Hassell	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	8	47%	-0.01	4	-0.09	1	0%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jim Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.08	0.00	0.05	7	86%	0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	10	62%	0.04	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.02
Kendall Gill	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	10	57%	0.04	2	-0.03	1	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	16	57%	0.06	3	-0.06	8	62%	-0.02
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.02	0.00	3	62%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Sean Marks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	7	44%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	6	50%	-0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	0.05	13	54%	-0.04	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	1.8	32.1	15.5	26.2	1.7	28.2	131.9
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +29.5%

CHI -8.0%

MIA +15.1%

MIA +11.8%

MIA +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIA	NBA	CHI	MIA	NBA
this game	16.3	14.6	15.6	86.0	109.7	102.3
season	15.6	16.5		96.3	96.6
opponent	15.8	15.6		98.2	105.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	16.5	15.9	17.3	15.6	16.3
MIA	14.1	16.1	14.0	14.5	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddy Curry	31	32	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.23	0	-22	22	14.7	17.1	-2.37	15.8	14.0	1.73
Trenton Hassell	58	60	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.18	-14	-8	-6	16.6	15.9	0.75	14.8	14.3	0.48
Marcus Fizer	43	42	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.40	-22	0	-22	17.8	15.1	2.69	13.3	15.7	-2.44
Dalibor Bagaric	55	54	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.10	-5	-17	12	16.5	16.1	0.32	14.7	14.6	0.10
Tyson Chandler	57	58	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.23	-17	-5	-12	16.0	16.9	-0.92	14.9	14.1	0.81
A.J. Guyton	56	55	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.24	-18	-4	-14	16.4	16.2	0.22	13.8	15.9	-2.07
Fred Hoiberg	88	87	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	0.15	-20	-2	-18	16.4	15.8	0.55	14.7	13.5	1.22
Kevin Ollie	77	77	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.14	-14	-8	-6	16.0	17.8	-1.80	15.0	12.8	2.21

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	54	56	0.47	0.03	0.45	-0.05	18	4	14	14.1	15.5	-1.41	17.6	14.4	3.27
Kendall Gill	69	69	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.09	17	5	12	14.3	15.5	-1.21	16.2	16.5	-0.30
Eddie Jones	63	65	0.40	0.10	0.31	-0.04	15	7	8	14.7	14.5	0.26	16.8	15.2	1.59
Rod Strickland	51	53	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.05	8	14	-6	15.2	14.0	1.26	16.2	16.5	-0.36
Eddie House	43	41	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.21	16	6	10	13.9	15.3	-1.46	16.1	16.5	-0.32
Brian Grant	59	60	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.07	6	16	-10	15.2	13.8	1.39	16.6	15.7	0.92
LaPhonso Ellis	39	38	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.14	12	10	2	15.3	14.2	1.14	15.8	16.7	-0.95
Jim Jackson	44	42	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.13	11	11	0	15.2	14.1	1.15	16.2	16.4	-0.20
Vladimir Stepania	19	18	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	21	-20	14.7	14.6	0.12	14.9	16.7	-1.71
Sean Marks	14	13	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.15	5	17	-12	13.1	14.9	-1.77	13.9	16.7	-2.79
Mike James	10	10	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	21	-20	13.6	14.8	-1.17	14.2	16.6	-2.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.58,0.69,0.75,0.81,0.88,0.87,0.9,0.84,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 90, NJN 110	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.5,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.7,0.62,0.74,0.8,0.74,0.79,0.79,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%
VAN 84, NYK 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.63,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.8,0.87,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%
CHI 78, TOR 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.49,0.58,0.59,0.67,0.59,0.66,0.66,0.76,0.76,0.81,0.87,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,0.98,1,1,1	95.8%