NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	109		Excitement	4.0 [1005]		MVP	Darrell Armstrong (ORL): +13.7%
Houston Rockets	100		Comeback	1.2 [617]		LVP	Steve Francis (HOU): -10.3%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darrell Armstrong	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.22	0.00	0.09	11	96%	0.15	1	-0.01	6	100%	0.00
Pat Garrity	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.14	0.00	0.01	11	77%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.01	0.02	-0.07	32	52%	0.13	2	-0.04	11	82%	0.01
Mike Miller	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	9	68%	0.07	3	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Jud Buechler	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Don Reid	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Ewing	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	60%	0.01	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Horace Grant	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Troy Hudson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.10	-0.00	-0.05	8	25%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.11	0.00	-0.04	3	33%	-0.03	2	-0.03	6	0%	-0.06

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.01	14	57%	0.03	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Tierre Brown	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terence Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Oscar Torres	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	14	58%	0.02	2	-0.04	8	37%	-0.05
Kelvin Cato	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	3	12%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Cuttino Mobley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	0.00	0.07	25	51%	-0.02	2	-0.04	3	67%	0.00
Moochie Norris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	2	37%	-0.03	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Steve Francis	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	-0.00	-0.01	23	50%	0.01	6	-0.11	8	62%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.9	2.6	32.2	16.5	25.6	3.5	36.4	138.6
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +47.3%

ORL +2.2%

HOU -1.6%

ORL +2.0%

ORL +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	HOU	NBA	ORL	HOU	NBA
this game	14.4	15.0	15.6	111.2	102.0	102.3
season	14.6	16.8		104.6	100.9
opponent	15.2	15.8		106.4	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	13.4	13.3	16.5	14.5	14.4
HOU	16.0	14.4	14.1	15.5	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tracy McGrady	87	88	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.14	13	-4	17	15.0	9.6	5.35	15.2	13.3	1.89
Darrell Armstrong	82	81	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.08	15	-6	21	14.4	14.4	-0.06	15.6	12.4	3.20
Pat Garrity	82	81	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.19	8	1	7	14.9	11.7	3.15	15.1	14.6	0.50
Horace Grant	63	63	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.13	9	0	9	14.5	14.2	0.29	15.9	13.4	2.53
Mike Miller	68	68	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.14	7	2	5	14.0	15.2	-1.22	14.5	16.1	-1.63
Troy Hudson	48	49	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.19	0	9	-9	13.8	14.9	-1.09	14.0	16.0	-2.00
Monty Williams	28	28	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.11	0	9	-9	15.0	14.2	0.81	16.3	14.5	1.80
Don Reid	10	12	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.03	0	9	-9	14.2	14.4	-0.21	11.2	15.5	-4.27
Patrick Ewing	11	10	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.08	-3	12	-15	13.5	14.5	-1.05	13.3	15.2	-1.89
Jud Buechler	11	10	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.10	-4	13	-17	9.6	15.0	-5.35	13.3	15.2	-1.89

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Oscar Torres	17	19	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.12	2	-11	13	12.6	15.5	-2.92	10.8	15.3	-4.46
Tierre Brown	4	3	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.02	-3	-6	3	17.0	14.9	2.09	12.7	14.4	-1.78
Moochie Norris	31	31	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.15	1	-10	11	16.1	14.5	1.65	16.2	13.6	2.59
Kelvin Cato	53	54	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.23	3	-12	15	15.0	15.0	0.00	14.5	14.2	0.33
Terence Morris	23	22	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.04	-8	-1	-7	16.0	14.7	1.36	15.6	14.0	1.61
Kenny Thomas	82	81	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.15	-10	1	-11	14.6	17.2	-2.61	14.0	16.4	-2.38
Cuttino Mobley	93	92	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.20	-9	0	-9	14.9	16.0	-1.05	14.4	14.7	-0.30
Steve Francis	98	98	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.24	-9	0	-9	15.0	0.0	15.00	14.4	0.0	14.39
Eddie Griffin	89	90	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.15	-12	3	-15	15.2	13.4	1.71	14.6	12.1	2.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.19,0.16,0.17,0.19,0.25,0.2,0.18,0.17,0.14,0.16,0.17,0.14,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.16,0.09,0.1,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 103, CHI 91	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.32,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.18,0.14,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.15,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.14,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.1%
POR 114, CLE 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.26,0.25,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.0%
SAC 95, NJN 79	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.31,0.32,0.27,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.15,0.21,0.22,0.18,0.1,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.14,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.07,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.9%