NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	100		Excitement	6.3 [558]		MVP	Tariq Abdul-Wahad (DEN): +18.1%
Memphis Grizzlies	85		Comeback	3.6 [224]		LVP	Shane Battier (MEM): -21.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.10	0.09	0.00	6	100%	0.21	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
George McCloud	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.10	0.05	0.03	10	76%	0.17	1	-0.05	1	0%	-0.02
Calbert Cheaney	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.02	5	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Zendon Hamilton	0.01	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	3	80%	0.05	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Raef LaFrentz	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.07	-0.06	0.00	21	52%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Ryan Bowen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.02	0.02	13	50%	-0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Satterfield	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	0.02	2	50%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.00	8	12%	-0.14	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Avery Johnson	-0.17	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.08	-0.04	0.05	12	55%	-0.03	5	-0.14	5	80%	-0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.01	0.02	13	62%	0.06	0	0.00	6	67%	0.02
Tony Massenburg	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elliot Perry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	3	87%	0.12	4	-0.13	2	50%	0.00
Grant Long	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	0.01	9	56%	0.03	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	12	58%	0.06	4	-0.13	9	78%	0.01
Antonis Fotsis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	1	0%	-0.04	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Will Solomon	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.03	-0.01	11	32%	-0.09	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.02
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.14	-0.05	-0.00	4	20%	-0.07	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Shane Battier	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.08	-0.08	0.05	13	41%	-0.16	1	-0.05	6	17%	-0.08

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.6	27.3	16.8	26.2	2.5	30.4	130.0
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +22.5%

MEM -1.8%

MEM -6.7%

DEN +32.8%

DEN +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MEM	NBA	DEN	MEM	NBA
this game	15.6	17.1	15.6	113.6	96.6	102.3
season	16.1	15.7		99.7	96.0
opponent	15.2	15.2		103.8	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.6	15.0	16.0	15.8	15.6
MEM	16.5	16.9	18.2	17.0	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	37	36	0.82	-0.32	1.13	0.14	23	-8	31	14.8	16.2	-1.32	17.0	17.2	-0.26
Avery Johnson	72	73	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.02	19	-4	23	15.4	16.5	-1.10	16.7	19.2	-2.50
George McCloud	53	54	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.02	19	-4	23	14.8	16.8	-1.99	17.1	17.2	-0.13
Raef LaFrentz	67	70	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.11	16	-1	17	15.1	17.2	-2.09	17.8	14.5	3.30
Voshon Lenard	46	45	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.13	6	9	-3	15.3	15.9	-0.62	17.4	16.8	0.61
Calbert Cheaney	49	49	0.25	0.25	0.00	-0.22	16	-1	17	15.9	15.2	0.76	16.1	18.4	-2.22
Chris Andersen	17	15	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.16	2	13	-11	14.5	15.9	-1.33	14.7	17.6	-2.88
Kenny Satterfield	16	15	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.04	-4	19	-23	16.5	15.4	1.10	19.2	16.7	2.50
James Posey	35	36	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.04	-5	20	-25	16.5	15.0	1.56	17.2	17.0	0.21
Ryan Bowen	17	18	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	-0.04	-3	18	-21	13.8	16.0	-2.28	19.5	16.5	2.99
Zendon Hamilton	31	29	-0.29	0.79	-1.09	0.12	-14	29	-43	19.4	13.5	5.84	16.6	17.4	-0.80

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Massenburg	19	19	0.17	-0.67	0.84	-0.04	7	-22	29	17.9	16.9	0.98	19.7	14.5	5.21
Will Solomon	64	64	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.04	2	-17	19	17.2	17.0	0.17	15.9	14.7	1.17
Pau Gasol	65	66	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.05	-4	-11	7	17.1	17.3	-0.18	16.0	14.3	1.71
Lorenzen Wright	43	43	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.02	-7	-8	1	15.3	18.8	-3.47	15.7	15.6	0.10
Stromile Swift	33	31	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.09	-14	-1	-13	18.3	16.4	1.84	11.6	17.8	-6.21
Elliot Perry	42	42	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.07	-17	2	-19	17.0	17.2	-0.19	14.3	16.8	-2.56
Antonis Fotsis	14	14	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.16	-10	-5	-5	19.8	16.6	3.16	16.6	15.4	1.24
Grant Long	80	80	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.17	-11	-4	-7	17.6	12.0	5.64	15.7	14.2	1.49
Shane Battier	80	81	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.02	-21	6	-27	16.5	23.4	-6.87	15.9	11.7	4.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.73,0.76,0.76,0.72,0.59,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.48,0.55,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.56,0.46,0.38,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.24,0.18,0.02,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 102, OKC 89	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.55,0.62,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.73,0.59,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.39,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.7,0.67,0.64,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.29,0.22,0.1,0.01,0,0,0	93.3%
CHI 97, POR 84	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.73,0.75,0.7,0.65,0.63,0.59,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.62,0.73,0.67,0.75,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.13,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.2%
MIL 101, SAS 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.72,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.52,0.43,0.41,0.32,0.26,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.12,0.06,0,0	92.4%