NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	79		Excitement	2.6 [1201]		MVP	Rodney Buford (MEM): +9.7%
Memphis Grizzlies	86		Comeback	1.1 [392]		LVP	Karl Malone (UTA): -11.0%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrei Kirilenko	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.09	0.00	0.07	5	94%	0.03	1	-0.01	6	100%	0.02
Quincy Lewis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	0.00	0.04	5	83%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Greg Ostertag	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rusty LaRue	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.10	0.00	-0.08	12	28%	-0.00	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00
Bryon Russell	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jarron Collins	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.09	0.00	-0.06	2	44%	-0.01	1	-0.02	12	58%	-0.01
John Starks	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	6	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Stockton	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	5	50%	-0.00	3	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
John Amaechi	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.14	0.00	-0.08	3	8%	-0.04	1	-0.02	6	17%	-0.02
Scott Padgett	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	0.00	0.02	13	47%	-0.05	2	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.15	0.00	-0.07	14	14%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Karl Malone	-0.11	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.15	-0.00	-0.04	13	31%	-0.07	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.02

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rodney Buford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.11	0.00	0.01	10	83%	0.11	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.00	-0.06	11	63%	0.07	4	-0.03	8	87%	0.02
Grant Long	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.06	5	62%	0.04	3	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Antonis Fotsis	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Solomon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.09	0.00	-0.09	10	25%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ike Austin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	2	0%	-0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brevin Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.09	0.00	-0.09	4	47%	0.01	2	-0.02	9	44%	-0.00
Tony Massenburg	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	7	57%	-0.01	0	0.00	7	86%	-0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.14	0.00	-0.07	11	39%	-0.05	3	-0.03	9	56%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.4	30.3	15.7	32.3	2.4	32.4	140.8
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +45.9%

UTA -2.5%

UTA -5.7%

MEM +12.2%

MEM +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	MEM	NBA	UTA	MEM	NBA
this game	16.3	15.7	15.6	87.8	95.6	102.3
season	16.1	15.7		102.9	96.0
opponent	15.2	15.1		103.8	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	15.9	18.7	15.9	14.9	16.3
MEM	14.1	16.4	15.4	17.1	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Ostertag	9	8	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.08	2	-9	11	14.9	16.5	-1.57	14.9	15.8	-0.91
Quincy Lewis	26	28	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.32	8	-15	23	16.1	16.4	-0.26	16.4	15.4	1.06
John Starks	23	23	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.04	-5	-2	-3	16.5	16.2	0.24	16.9	15.3	1.57
Jarron Collins	32	34	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.43	11	-18	29	14.2	17.5	-3.33	16.3	15.4	0.91
Bryon Russell	29	28	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.02	-4	-3	-1	15.3	16.8	-1.51	16.1	15.5	0.54
John Amaechi	28	28	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.09	-4	-3	-1	16.0	16.4	-0.44	13.6	16.6	-2.99
Rusty LaRue	45	44	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.28	2	-9	11	15.4	17.2	-1.76	14.9	16.5	-1.55
John Stockton	45	46	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.01	-9	2	-11	17.2	15.4	1.76	16.5	14.9	1.55
Andrei Kirilenko	54	52	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.40	3	-10	13	15.6	17.3	-1.72	15.0	16.6	-1.57
DeShawn Stevenson	54	54	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.25	-2	-5	3	16.7	15.6	1.10	15.3	16.3	-1.06
Karl Malone	55	53	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.12	-16	9	-25	17.2	14.9	2.31	16.1	15.1	1.05
Scott Padgett	50	52	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.25	-21	14	-35	18.0	14.2	3.78	16.1	15.1	0.98

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pau Gasol	78	77	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.19	9	-2	11	16.0	13.6	2.44	16.0	17.9	-1.90
Shane Battier	86	84	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.33	3	4	-1	15.9	11.7	4.13	16.0	20.8	-4.86
Rodney Buford	63	64	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.23	6	1	5	15.4	16.5	-1.12	16.8	15.1	1.72
Grant Long	67	69	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.13	18	-11	29	15.7	15.7	-0.05	16.7	14.9	1.88
Tony Massenburg	58	60	0.38	0.12	0.25	-0.18	19	-12	31	15.5	16.0	-0.51	17.1	14.7	2.40
Brevin Knight	41	41	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.14	6	1	5	14.9	16.4	-1.51	16.5	16.1	0.39
Will Solomon	30	30	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.39	-9	16	-25	16.1	15.5	0.60	15.8	16.6	-0.80
Ike Austin	19	18	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.06	-2	9	-11	17.5	15.2	2.25	15.3	16.6	-1.28
Antonis Fotsis	8	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.44	-15	22	-37	13.1	16.0	-2.83	11.1	16.7	-5.59

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.59,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.84,0.88,0.87,0.85,0.85,0.84,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.91,0.9,0.89,0.93,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 100, LAL 117	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.76,0.78,0.78,0.83,0.84,0.86,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.88,0.87,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.91,0.9,0.92,0.87,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.6%
MIL 77, MIA 96	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.76,0.71,0.77,0.8,0.82,0.84,0.89,0.87,0.82,0.86,0.85,0.89,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.3%
CLE 76, NOH 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.65,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.77,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.91,0.89,0.86,0.82,0.89,0.89,0.89,0.91,0.88,0.88,0.91,0.89,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.3%