NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	92		Excitement	7.2 [390]		MVP	Erick Strickland (BOS): +18.4%
Toronto Raptors	97		Comeback	18.8 [125]		LVP	Antoine Walker (BOS): -22.6%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Erick Strickland	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.11	0.07	-0.00	6	87%	0.18	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Tony Battie	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	11	67%	0.09	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Joe Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.02	7	31%	-0.07	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Kenny Anderson	-0.18	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.18	-0.12	-0.07	-0.01	9	36%	-0.09	3	-0.10	4	50%	-0.02
Paul Pierce	-0.19	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19	-0.18	-0.06	-0.05	24	37%	-0.15	2	-0.04	12	83%	0.01
Eric Williams	-0.22	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.22	-0.12	-0.11	-0.01	5	0%	-0.08	2	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.31,-0.31,-0.23	-0.02	-0.19	0.01	19	62%	0.15	7	-0.38	2	50%	-0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keon Clark	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.06	-0.01	9	67%	0.13	1	-0.02	6	67%	0.00
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	6	76%	0.07	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.02
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.05	0.05	0.00	14	40%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Dell Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	0.00	10	50%	0.04	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.04
Eric Montross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	14	37%	0.00	1	-0.10	4	100%	0.02
Vince Carter	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.2,-0.2,-0.27,-0.19,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.05	0.01	27	45%	-0.05	3	-0.09	6	100%	0.03
Chris Childs	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18	-0.18	-0.12	-0.08	-0.03	6	37%	-0.04	4	-0.13	4	75%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.9	2.6	28.2	19.4	24.6	3.4	40.3	143.4
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +3.9%

TOR +7.9%

TOR +4.7%

TOR +32.2%

TOR +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	TOR	NBA	BOS	TOR	NBA
this game	14.4	15.3	15.6	95.8	99.0	102.3
season	15.0	16.2		100.9	100.3
opponent	15.6	15.7		100.9	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	13.6	14.8	15.9	13.4	14.4
TOR	17.5	13.4	16.8	13.7	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Williams	54	58	0.21	-0.71	0.91	-0.09	10	-15	25	13.5	15.6	-2.11	15.8	14.5	1.23
Joe Johnson	18	19	0.10	-0.60	0.69	0.01	3	-8	11	13.5	14.6	-1.12	18.1	14.6	3.51
Vitaly Potapenko	33	33	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.06	-4	-1	-3	15.1	14.1	1.00	15.4	15.2	0.13
Tony Battie	58	61	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.27	-1	-4	3	15.1	13.4	1.63	15.9	14.3	1.57
Paul Pierce	90	91	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.48	2	-7	9	14.1	18.3	-4.19	15.5	12.3	3.22
Erick Strickland	60	59	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.24	-12	7	-19	14.2	14.7	-0.46	14.3	16.7	-2.35
Antoine Walker	83	84	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.34	-9	4	-13	14.5	13.8	0.65	14.8	18.3	-3.51
Kenny Anderson	84	85	-0.71	0.21	-0.91	-0.30	-14	9	-23	14.8	11.6	3.23	14.7	18.8	-4.03

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Childs	57	56	1.05	-0.55	1.59	0.28	26	-21	47	13.8	17.3	-3.43	14.3	14.5	-0.16
Vince Carter	89	87	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.35	6	-1	7	15.7	10.7	5.07	15.2	6.7	8.54
Keon Clark	55	54	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.45	2	3	-1	14.6	16.1	-1.46	14.1	14.8	-0.76
Alvin Williams	71	71	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.52	-10	15	-25	15.9	13.6	2.32	14.4	14.6	-0.21
Antonio Davis	89	88	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.38	-6	11	-17	15.8	9.9	5.93	14.0	18.4	-4.33
Dell Curry	45	44	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.13	8	-3	11	15.0	15.5	-0.51	13.1	15.5	-2.47
Eric Montross	16	14	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	-0.03	-1	6	-7	16.6	15.0	1.54	13.6	14.5	-0.98
Jerome Williams	68	66	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.06	0	5	-5	14.9	16.2	-1.28	15.3	12.5	2.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.32,0.27,0.32,0.36,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.23,0.27,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.13,0.18,0.14,0.09,0.26,0.34,0.27,0.47,0.45,0.85,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 85, LAL 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.27,0.24,0.16,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.04,0.06,0.12,0.2,0.26,0.18,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.21,0.27,0.21,0.24,0.28,0.31,0.45,0.84,0.85,1	91.4%
PHX 102, POR 105	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.59,0.55,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.53,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.25,0.3,0.31,0.23,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.17,0.16,0.11,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.26,0.24,0.27,0.46,0.79,0.95,0.98,1	91.4%
SAC 94, POR 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.39,0.3,0.21,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.17,0.14,0.13,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.27,0.26,0.36,0.53,0.32,0.46,0.67,0.92,1	91.0%