NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	102		Excitement	6.9 [446]		MVP	Jim Jackson (MIA): +23.6%
Los Angeles Lakers	96		Comeback	8.9 [69]		LVP	Robert Horry (LAL): -28.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jim Jackson	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.24	0.09	0.14	-0.01	8	76%	0.24	0	0.00	9	89%	0.07
Brian Grant	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.01	0.07	-0.02	5	40%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0.06	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.02	0.03	17	68%	0.17	3	-0.11	7	57%	-0.03
Kendall Gill	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0	0.02	-0.03	-0.01	9	56%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Stepania	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	10	45%	0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	11	42%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Rod Strickland	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08	0.01	-0.07	0.02	12	54%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.03

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Fisher	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.11	0.02	-0.00	10	77%	0.17	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Rick Fox	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.04	-0.00	11	50%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Madsen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.04	-0.02	7	43%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.04	-0.02	6	25%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.08	-0.00	0.05	9	70%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Brian Shaw	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Slava Medvedenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mitch Richmond	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.07,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	11	48%	-0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.09,0.04,0.01,0.03,-0.08,-0.21	-0.21	-0.11	-0.12	-0.02	30	43%	-0.14	3	-0.07	7	71%	0.02
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.28,-0.28	-0.28	-0.15	-0.16	-0.03	7	19%	-0.10	3	-0.18	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	1.0	25.2	16.7	27.0	1.8	30.2	126.2
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +28.7%

MIA +21.2%

LAL -12.6%

MIA +11.9%

MIA +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	LAL	NBA	MIA	LAL	NBA
this game	16.3	17.0	15.6	117.2	111.6	102.3
season	16.5	15.3		96.6	106.9
opponent	15.4	15.8		99.8	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.4	17.2	15.5	17.0	16.3
LAL	17.3	15.5	18.8	16.5	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jim Jackson	57	58	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.25	16	-10	26	16.5	16.0	0.51	16.0	19.0	-3.02
Brian Grant	56	55	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.42	0	6	-6	15.8	17.2	-1.34	17.5	16.0	1.51
Rod Strickland	54	54	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.32	3	3	0	16.2	16.5	-0.25	17.6	16.0	1.64
Eddie Jones	64	63	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.34	2	4	-2	16.5	15.7	0.76	17.2	16.4	0.77
Alonzo Mourning	61	61	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.40	-1	7	-8	17.4	13.7	3.66	17.5	15.9	1.58
Vladimir Stepania	22	22	0.19	0.31	-0.11	-0.04	8	-2	10	14.5	16.9	-2.41	16.0	17.3	-1.28
Kendall Gill	40	39	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.06	-2	8	-10	14.7	17.6	-2.91	17.8	16.3	1.55
LaPhonso Ellis	46	44	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	3	0	16.9	15.6	1.26	16.2	17.8	-1.58
Eddie House	35	34	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.04	1	5	-4	16.8	16.0	0.84	16.3	17.5	-1.22

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lindsey Hunter	27	27	0.29	-0.79	1.08	0.23	2	-8	10	15.9	17.5	-1.67	19.5	14.8	4.67
Mark Madsen	47	47	0.26	-0.76	1.02	0.08	6	-12	18	18.1	15.7	2.44	16.4	16.2	0.14
Brian Shaw	7	8	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-7	8	17.0	17.0	-0.00	19.1	16.0	3.11
Slava Medvedenko	4	4	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.04	-3	-3	0	13.5	17.2	-3.67	11.5	16.5	-5.03
Mitch Richmond	9	8	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.01	-3	-3	0	15.7	17.2	-1.49	13.9	16.5	-2.67
Rick Fox	44	45	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.16	-9	3	-12	17.8	16.1	1.68	14.9	17.8	-2.97
Kobe Bryant	70	71	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.30	-4	-2	-2	17.2	16.2	0.92	16.3	16.5	-0.25
Devean George	43	44	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.46	1	-7	8	16.0	18.0	-2.05	17.1	15.5	1.65
Samaki Walker	70	71	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.61	4	-10	14	17.4	15.1	2.38	17.3	11.7	5.57
Robert Horry	50	50	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.19	-17	11	-28	15.8	18.7	-2.91	15.7	17.1	-1.31
Derek Fisher	59	60	-0.79	0.29	-1.08	-0.56	-8	2	-10	17.5	15.9	1.67	14.8	19.5	-4.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.24,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.13,0.18,0.22,0.18,0.25,0.19,0.24,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.41,0.6,0.67,0.81,0.83,0.68,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 97, MEM 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.25,0.19,0.2,0.16,0.25,0.3,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.2,0.17,0.27,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.21,0.16,0.22,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.38,0.32,0.43,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.71,0.57,0.08,0	87.7%
POR 82, LAC 80	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.34,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.22,0.23,0.25,0.18,0.21,0.27,0.16,0.23,0.25,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.38,0.41,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.52,0.37,0.47,0.29,0.39,0.53,0.63,0.45,0.15,0	87.5%
CHA 104, NOH 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.38,0.28,0.24,0.2,0.16,0.19,0.17,0.16,0.15,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.16,0.2,0.29,0.36,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.63,0.7,0.65,0.73,0.81,0.79,0.57,0.27,0	87.5%